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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

so is that system around oct 5-7th legit? i know is fantasy land but the pattern looks good for a run up the coast.

Anytime you have something in the homebrew region in October it’s worth a casual eye because there are more troughs that could sling something north, but additional troughs also increase odds things get shunted OTS.

The signal for some development has been there for a while, and it fits climo, so I think that aspect of the signal is legit. Whether there’s a risk up here is an entirely different question. I’m not really watching right now. It’s too early—for us at least. 

I do think things heat up again in October. The CCKW/MJO is primed to sync with our second “peak”, and the western Atlantic has been much more favorable. The central/western Caribbean is virtually untapped and the SE US remains very warm. Watch the zone between 65W and 85W..

2020266at.jpg

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10 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

he looks like the guy that shot himself in Full Metal Jacket lol

Private pile to be exact.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely watch early October. Not only is it climo, but we should have a deep longitudinal trough at that time. 

I’ve actually had a couple of people say to me that we can’t have hurricanes up here in October because the water is too cool by then. I don’t agree with that reasoning btw 

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Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I’ve actually had a couple of people say to me that we can’t have hurricanes up here in October because the water is too cool by then. I don’t agree with that reasoning btw 

You can easily have extra-tropical transitioning storms. In fact our two big Oct wind storms of 2017 and 2019 had tropical like entities with them. We basically had a category 1 in PYM county, Cape Cod, and Essex County last year. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can easily have extra-tropical transitioning storms. In fact our two big Oct wind storms of 2017 and 2019 had tropical like entities with them. We basically had a category 1 in PYM county, Cape Cod, and Essex County last year. 

Yea speed negates a lot. High speed express trains don’t stop and pick up energy, they bring the energy with them.

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If someone else besides me is into this kinda thing, YouTube has a treasure trove of old weather disaster related TV docs from the 70’s and 80’s. “When Havoc Struck” (particularly the hurricane Camille episode) gave me nightmares but also kindled my interest in storms.  I recommend to check it out.

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100%

Extra-tropical transition and high forward speed are two viable ways to get it done. I’d also argue that the depth of OHC off the SE coast this year can help. October can be prime time for action up here. Tropical or not. I like the development signal from the new GEFS, which has consistently outperformed the EPS this season with regard to TC genesis.

Max gusts from the 2019 event. 

 

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That was wild. There was  not much more than 40-50 West of the mesolow track which was literally just west of me into BOS and up 93. But man for about 1 hr it went nuts. Wife woke me up screaming we need to move the kids into our room and away from the oaks. Logan also gusted near 70. Lots of damage, maybe more than 2017 here. No school for my son. That storm also had big downslope wind for Ineedsnow.

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Funny thing is I don’t even remember the event. I think I was out on travel during that time and came back to my VP2 blown over and pizza boxes blown out of recycling and all over the yard :lol: 

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15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Funny thing is I don’t even remember the event. I think I was out on travel during that time and came back to my VP2 blown over and pizza boxes blown out of recycling and all over the yard :lol: 

 

Screenshot_20191016-234735_RadarScope.jpg

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

3 mesos passed thru

20191018_083420.jpg

I wish I had the memory of some of you with these things. I think I vaguely remember 3 mesos? Really cool event either way. 

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Why is hurricane carol considered the “most tropical” of New England hurricanes? I’ve heard others mention that here?

symmetrical wind and rain field by NE standards, and a legit eye when it came ashore. New London had sunny conditions as the eye passed over.

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