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joshwx2003

April 12 Severe Event

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Def agree with Quincy, guidance is converging more in those areas...may finally be nearing an agreement. Only area with a bigger question mark is the southern valley of TN/NW GA.

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Getting very worried about a significant nocturnal damaging wind/QLCS tornado threat in the Atlanta area- this is the NAM-nest sounding which shows some pretty eye-popping numbers like storm motion 68 kts?!?!

Screen Shot 2020-04-12 at 10.22.13 AM.png

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
LAC031-121500-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/  
DE SOTO LA-  
937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL  
DE SOTO PARISH...  
          
AT 937 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF  
LOGANSPORT, OR 12 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50  
MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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both warnings radar confirmed

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
LAC031-121500-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/  
DE SOTO LA-  
946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL  
DE SOTO PARISH...  
          
AT 945 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF  
STONEWALL, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55  
MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
951 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT.  
      
* AT 951 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STONEWALL, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF  
  MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  

  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  

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Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting. 

 

SND.png

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1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. 

Seems like this was a fairly "hefty" QLCS tornado....

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looks like it weakened....

 

it was interesting to note how that storm and to lesser extent the one north sharpened up on reflectivity just before TOR warned ...it went from fuzzy looking to sharp on the backside , by sharp i mean the DBZ went from 50 to 10ish near the same pixels rather then a blob

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1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. 

Not necessarily. The TDS doesn’t look very tall since it’s not even visible from the fort Polk radar at 7k feet. It could be EF3+ but sometimes radar signatures are deceiving. 

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9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting. 

 

SND.png

5.1 C/km 0-3km lapse rate... jives with mesoanalysis. A good example of why you don’t necessarily need steep low-level lapse rates when you have low LCLs and substantial low-level shear. 

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