DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Tony Lyza is quite bullish on today. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TellicoWx Posted April 12, 2020 Def agree with Quincy, guidance is converging more in those areas...may finally be nearing an agreement. Only area with a bigger question mark is the southern valley of TN/NW GA. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheeznado Posted April 12, 2020 Getting very worried about a significant nocturnal damaging wind/QLCS tornado threat in the Atlanta area- this is the NAM-nest sounding which shows some pretty eye-popping numbers like storm motion 68 kts?!?! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TellicoWx Posted April 12, 2020 12z UH NSSL, ARW, 3K Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 1st of the day KETK NEWS @KETK · 2m A tornado has been CONFIRMED to be on the ground southeast of Marshall and heading towards Waskom Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 937 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOGANSPORT, OR 12 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 Looks like an intense tornado too given the velocity couplet. Also appears to be a debris signature on CC. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 both warnings radar confirmed EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 945 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF STONEWALL, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 CC drop and spike in reflectivity https://twitter.com/WxJason/status/1249349200464183296/photo/1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 951 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1015 AM CDT. * AT 951 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STONEWALL, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 OK, so it seems like intense QLCS tornadoes are on the table today... 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TampaTwo Posted April 12, 2020 Move along, nothing to see here in Northern Mississippi later this afternoon... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanLarsen34 Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TampaTwo said: Move along, nothing to see here in Northern Mississippi later this afternoon... If that environment happens... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. Seems like this was a fairly "hefty" QLCS tornado.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 looks like it weakened.... it was interesting to note how that storm and to lesser extent the one north sharpened up on reflectivity just before TOR warned ...it went from fuzzy looking to sharp on the backside , by sharp i mean the DBZ went from 50 to 10ish near the same pixels rather then a blob Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JasonOH Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: That radar signature is suggestive of at least an EF-3. Yikes. Not necessarily. The TDS doesn’t look very tall since it’s not even visible from the fort Polk radar at 7k feet. It could be EF3+ but sometimes radar signatures are deceiving. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 new circulation Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Here’s a closer look of that image, but note that QLCS tornadoes are likely west and northwest of this highlighted area. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 70+ knots of Vrot on the first stout QLCS tor Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Here is a forecast sounding from the RAP that is probably representative of what the QLCS is ingesting. 5.1 C/km 0-3km lapse rate... jives with mesoanalysis. A good example of why you don’t necessarily need steep low-level lapse rates when you have low LCLs and substantial low-level shear. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 That previous intense line in nw Louisiana seems to be breaking up into more discrete cells due to the insane helicity it is encountering. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
