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COVID-19 Talk

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14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

New York giving 50 ventilators to Maryland. Apparently we are in need right now.

must be PG county area 

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34 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah... 20% end up in the hospital, and with that comes lots of ugliness. For one, hospital bills, which a lot of us just can't afford. I have a 4 year old child and I'm in a custody battle, I can't deal with being away from him in a hospital for 2 weeks. Then if you progress to needing oxygen, the feeling of not being able to breathe. And like you said with the recovery. There are athletes and marathon runners who are finding it hard to walk up and down stairs recovering.

 

To hell with all of that.

Just curious why you are saying 20% end up in a hospital?  It may be that 20% of people who test positive end up in a hospital, but as you know that number is skewed by the fact that only people who have enough symptoms even get tested in the first place, and many of those tests are done in hospitals.  There are certainly many people who have the virus but don’t get tested because they have no symptoms or have mild symptoms and don’t bother with a test.

I will be very surprised if it turns out that 20% of all people who get the virus have to be hospitalized.  But maybe I am missing some research on this.  

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42 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yeah... 20% end up in the hospital, and with that comes lots of ugliness. For one, hospital bills, which a lot of us just can't afford. I have a 4 year old child and I'm in a custody battle, I can't deal with being away from him in a hospital for 2 weeks. Then if you progress to needing oxygen, the feeling of not being able to breathe. And like you said with the recovery. There are athletes and marathon runners who are finding it hard to walk up and down stairs recovering.

 

To hell with all of that.

Stop posting fear mongering BS.. 20% don't end up in the hospital. The hospitalization rate is 2.6% for those 18-49 years old.. The highest number is 17% for those 85 years old or above

If you want to sit in your house 24/7 for the next 18 months and eat government cheese hoping you don't get evicted, more power to you. If you're healthy and want to take your own risks while following sanitary guidelines, let people get on with their lives. 

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Just curious why you are saying 20% end up in a hospital?  It may be that 20% of people who test positive end up in a hospital, but as you know that number is skewed by the fact that only people who have enough symptoms even get tested in the first place, and many of those tests are done in hospitals.  There are certainly many people who have the virus but don’t get tested because they have no symptoms or have mild symptoms and don’t bother with a test.

I will be very surprised if it turns out that 20% of all people who get the virus have to be hospitalized.  But maybe I am missing some research on this.  

So... Not to get into the asymptomatic vs symptomatic and stuff, but 15-25% is what most studies show go asymptomatic, but even if the hospitalization rate is half of the 20%, it's still 10%. I don't want to go to the hospital and doing something that gives me a 10% chance of going to the hospital for 2 weeks... yeah. I'm going to avoid that.

 

Also, something a lot of people aren't doing when it comes to these rates is dividing by two weeks ago. Most of the time for death rates and hospitalization rates you're seeing people divide today's hospitalizations or today's deaths by today's cases. But it takes 2 weeks to end up in the hospital, and then another two weeks after that to actually die.

 

 

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I’m remaining hopeful that warm weather will help in our attempts to slow the spread of the virus. Other than the hot spot in New Orleans, many warmer areas have seen far less cases and deaths. Florida sees a ton of travel from The north during the winter. They have about 600 deaths from the virus. I think the country will be able to “open up” from south to north starting on May 1.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Looks like right now, the official CDC data is:

 

Cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates since March 1, 2020, will be updated weekly. The overall cumulative hospitalization rate is 12.3 per 100,000, with the highest rates in persons 65 years and older (38.7 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (20.7 per 100,000).

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

And yes, I do plan to stay inside. 81% of people right now support continued lockdowns. Not just for our own sake, but for the sake of the people we care about who are susceptible.

Hospitalization rates are here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

Good to know 80% of the population has endless economic resources and not living paycheck to paycheck like most reports I've seen. When the government tit is dry I have a feeling they will be singing a different tune. Good luck

 

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9 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So... Not to get into the asymptomatic vs symptomatic and stuff, but 15-25% is what most studies show go asymptomatic, but even if the hospitalization rate is half of the 20%, it's still 10%. I don't want to go to the hospital and doing something that gives me a 10% chance of going to the hospital for 2 weeks... yeah. I'm going to avoid that.

 

 

I’m not talking about just symptomatic vs. asymptomatic.  I’m talking about tested vs. not tested.  For a variety of reasons, even many symptomatic people are not getting tested.  The people getting tested are largely the sicker ones and thus are more likely to require hospitalizations.  

I’m not trying to downplay the nastiness of the virus or the need to avoid it.  I just don’t think we can say 20% end up in a hospital.

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7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Stop posting fear mongering BS.. 20% don't end up in the hospital. The hospitalization rate is 2.6% for those 18-49 years old.. The highest number is 17% for those 85 years old or above

If you want to sit in your house 24/7 for the next 18 months and eat government cheese hoping you don't get evicted, more power to you. If you're healthy and want to take your own risks while following sanitary guidelines, let people get on with their lives. 

And the hospitalization rate is greatly affected by self-selection bias. Only the sickest people go to the ER and test positive, and, of that cohort, some percentage is admitted. It's not 17% of every single person with COVID-19...

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4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Stop posting fear mongering BS.. 20% don't end up in the hospital. The hospitalization rate is 2.6% for those 18-49 years old.. The highest number is 17% for those 85 years old or above

If you want to sit in your house 24/7 for the next 18 months and eat government cheese hoping you don't get evicted, more power to you. If you're healthy and want to take your own risks, let people get on with their lives. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w#T1_down

This was the CDC study I was working with:

 

5J8RQW9.png

 

And yes, I do plan to stay inside. 81% of people right now support continued lockdowns. Not just for our own sake, but for the sake of the people we care about who are susceptible.

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

I’m not talking about just symptomatic vs. asymptomatic.  I’m talking about tested vs. not tested.  For a variety of reasons, many symptomatic people are not getting tested.  The people getting tested a largely the sicker ones and thus are more likely to require hospitalizations.  

I’m not trying to downplay the nastiness of the virus or the need to avoid it.  I just don’t think we can say 20% end up in a hospital.

See above. The study I was working with shows a 20%-31% hospitalization rate. It's directly from the CDC.

Even if it's 10%, I'm not risking anything. I've heard of many stories of people my age getting ridiculously sick, being in the hospital for 14 days, being on oxygen, being unable to walk up and down stairs for weeks afterwards.

 

I'm having no part in it. 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w#T1_down

This was the CDC study I was working with:

 

5J8RQW9.png

 

And yes, I do plan to stay inside. 81% of people right now support continued lockdowns. Not just for our own sake, but for the sake of the people we care about who are susceptible.

This number is next to useless without knowing total infected (AKA, the denominator).

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

And the hospitalization rate is greatly affected by self-selection bias. Only the sickest people go to the ER and test positive, and, of that cohort, some percentage is admitted. It's not 17% of every single person with COVID-19...

Yes, that too.. I'd wager a relatively high number of infections go untested because their symptoms are mild or non-existent..

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Just now, PhineasC said:

This number is next to useless without knowing total infected (AKA, the denominator).

It's the data the CDC has, it's what I've got to work with, and until there is increased testing, none of us know except for what we can see - that is, more people are dying daily from this disease even when we're under lockdown than heart disease, car accidents, and flu combined, and lots of people, including young people, are going to the hospital.

So... I, like 81% of of people in that last poll, think continued lockdowns are important and personally, I'm staying as far away from this disease until it gets a bit more under control.

 

Regardless of what you or I think though, we're all stuck inside right now and all agree this sucks and TBH, I'm not sure there's a whole lot you or I can do about it. This is nature, as people who follow weather we all know that well... mother nature will have her way sometimes. All we can do is hope to mitigate.

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Yes, that too.. I'd wager a relatively high number of infections go untested because their symptoms are mild or non-existent..

We are missing tons and tons of cases. There are some early serological test results coming in from around the world now and it shows there is a huge part of the iceberg underwater.

Using these hospitalization numbers is like polling a prison and then saying 20% of the US population commits violent assaults on the regular.

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

See above. The study I was working with shows a 20%-31% hospitalization rate. It's directly from the CDC.

Even if it's 10%, I'm not risking anything. I've heard of many stories of people my age getting ridiculously sick, being in the hospital for 14 days, being on oxygen, being unable to walk up and down stairs for weeks afterwards.

 

I'm having no part in it. 

 

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This number is next to useless without knowing total infected (AKA, the denominator).

Besides the fact that it's looking at data between Feb 12 - March 16 when very few if any were getting tested for COVID. Nice cherry picking

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8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Stop posting fear mongering BS.. 20% don't end up in the hospital. The hospitalization rate is 2.6% for those 18-49 years old.. The highest number is 17% for those 85 years old or above

If you want to sit in your house 24/7 for the next 18 months and eat government cheese hoping you don't get evicted, more power to you. If you're healthy and want to take your own risks while following sanitary guidelines, let people get on with their lives. 

The average hospitalization rate has been 17%, but of course that sample is biased because mostly only the very sick get tested.  I think the framing you’ve presented is incorrect.  I don’t believe people can “get on with their lives” in the midst of this epidemic until we limit the spread significantly.  We need to limit it at least to the point that our hospitals aren’t in jeopardy of being overwhelmed.  

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

The average hospitalization rate has been 17%, but of course that sample is biased because mostly only the very sick get tested.  I think the framing you’ve presented is incorrect.  I don’t believe people can “get on with their lives” in the midst of this epidemic until we limit the spread significantly.  We need to limit it at least to the point that our hospitals aren’t in jeopardy of being overwhelmed.  

Agreed.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

The average hospitalization rate has been 17%, but of course that sample is biased because mostly only the very sick get tested.  I think the framing you’ve presented is incorrect.  I don’t believe people can “get on with their lives” in the midst of this epidemic until we limit the spread significantly.  We need to limit it at least to the point that our hospitals aren’t in jeopardy of being overwhelmed.  

No it hasn't been 17% unless you're over 85 - read the link I posted which has the most recent information. 

You're welcome to stay at home until kingdom come under your TP bunker.. no problem from me!

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Just now, Yeoman said:

 

Besides the fact that it's looking at data between Feb 12 - March 16 when very few if any were getting tested for COVID. Nice cherry picking

It's directly from the CDC, and a number around 20% has been reported from many countries all over the world ever since China. 20% of people with this disease seem to develop a "severe form of illness" with the numbers we have available to us.

 

It's not worth fighting over. You can work with whatever you want to work with, I'm working with what we can verify, and the state is taking all of this stuff into account when making lockdown decisions. They have scientists who I am sure know way more than you and I combined or so I hope.

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

The average hospitalization rate has been 17%, but of course that sample is biased because mostly only the very sick get tested.  I think the framing you’ve presented is incorrect.  I don’t believe people can “get on with their lives” in the midst of this epidemic until we limit the spread significantly.  We need to limit it at least to the point that our hospitals aren’t in jeopardy of being overwhelmed.  

Hospital capacity in the vast majority of the US outside a tiny segment is way underutilized right now. Hospitals are laying off staff due to lack of patients.

The initial push from Cuomo and others that we needed a bazillion ventilators turned out to be wildly unrealistic and the governors have already started moving away from that idea.

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Just now, Yeoman said:

No it hasn't been 17% unless you're over 85 - read the link I posted which has the most recent information. 

You're welcome to stay at home until kingdom come under your TP bunker.. no problem from me!

The infected fatality ratio (IFR) for those under 65 with no major complications has been steadily dropping and is approaching regular flu territory (0.2%).

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Hospital capacity in the vast majority of the US outside a tiny segment is way underutilized right now. Hospitals are laying off staff due to lack of patients.

The initial push from Cuomo and others that we needed a bazillion ventilators turned out to be wildly unrealistic and the governors have already started moving away from that idea.

It's because we are socially distancing and it's working. Even still we're getting 2k deaths in the country every day while socially distanced.

 

Again, governments have the info to make these decisions. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

The infected fatality ratio (IFR) for those under 65 with no major complications has been steadily dropping and is approaching regular flu territory (0.2%).

I don't see how you or anyone can be confident in IFR numbers right now when Fauci and basically all scientists out there are saying that "we don't know." 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

It's directly from the CDC, and a number around 20% has been reported from many countries all over the world ever since China. 20% of people with this disease seem to develop a "severe form of illness" with the numbers we have available to us.

 

It's not worth fighting over. You can work with whatever you want to work with, I'm working with what we can verify, and the state is taking all of this stuff into account when making lockdown decisions. They have scientists who I am sure know way more than you and I combined or so I hope.

You clearly don't understand how lack of testing unrealistically skews the numbers so it's a lost cause. Between 2/12 - 3/16 only those who were sick enough to go to the hospital were getting tested, so of course the numbers are higher for that period. The FDA didn't even approve a test until well into that period.

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's directly from the CDC, and a number around 20% has been reported from many countries all over the world ever since China. 20% of people with this disease seem to develop a "severe form of illness" with the numbers we have available to us.

 

It's not worth fighting over. You can work with whatever you want to work with, I'm working with what we can verify, and the state is taking all of this stuff into account when making lockdown decisions. They have scientists who I am sure know way more than you and I combined or so I hope.

It’s around 20% of reported cases, not ALL cases, which is a big difference.  Again, we simply don’t know the true hospitalization rate - just as we don’t know the true death rate.  

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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's because we are socially distancing and it's working. Even still we're getting 2k deaths in the country every day while socially distanced.

 

Again, governments have the info to make these decisions. 

But even in hard-hit NYC they are nowhere near regional capacity. Meanwhile, many people with cancer, kidney disease, and other very serious illnesses can't get treatment and/r have been laid off and lost their coverage.

And I have zero faith the political leaders have the best info or have processed it all yet when making decisions. This entire pandemic has become totally politicized now, which is a shame but to be expected.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

It’s around 20% of reported cases, not ALL cases, which is a big difference.  Again, we simply don’t know the true hospitalization rate - just as we don’t know the true death rate.  

Right, of course. It all depends on how big that iceberg is.

Either way though, at this point "rates" are kind of moot, real rates will be determined when this is all said and done. At this point it's raw numbers.

The raw numbers are, a month into lockdown, 2k people a day are still dying. Imagine what those numbers would be with things opened back up for busines.

So I am not seeing things open back up for at least another month, possibly longer, and it seems most of the general public is fine with that and supports it. Myself included.

 

Thankfully.

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