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COVID-19 Talk

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s getting to be quarantine fatigue. I know my family is feeling it and I think the crowd reports from parks is confirming it. NYTimes had an article about it this week as tracked by cell phone data.  Not sure what the answer is, but I think people are going to test limits and push things the longer we go. Especially as weather gets nice.

I think all the talk about opening up soon could have people getting complacent.

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3 hours ago, 40westwx said:

Exactly.. and the published estimates of ~50,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018 failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic that year, when the overall death rate increased some 20% on average per week for several weeks.. but only a couple thousand flu deaths were actually reported during the same weeks.  You can go look at the data your self.  It was a crazy anomoly in the data.. and  noone batted an eyebrow 

there was no pandemic in 2017-2018.

you should start posting facts.

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Just random questions- feel free to answer or point out where I'm wrong. I've generally been optimistic but I'm starting to lose the faith...

I'm not seeing any evidence this is slowing down nationally? Looks to me like a sine wave that goes on forever rather than a curve. I mocked the CHIME model the DC Mayor originally put out (which had them peaking in July) but that seems more likely to me now than the IHME (which is already wrong it seems). Though my question is: if this keeps going into the summer, are we really going to have a second wave in the fall? Take NYC for example- that antibody test showed about 20% may have already had it? There's a lag in antibodies too I think, so that's probably a snapshot of a few weeks ago then? If this keeps going at that rate, aren't many areas of the northeast going to be approaching herd immunity in a few months anyway?

Can anyone give me an example of a respiratory virus that only targets older people and those with metabolic syndromes? All the others I know of hit both very young AND old hard. Also, why is COVID-19 able to spread in warm weather? I don't know of any respiratory virus that transmits well in heat. If heat and lockdowns aren't squashing it, what's to stop it from continuing to spread at the rate it currently is until herd immunity?

My youngest son has to go in the Dr. for his 1-year immunizations in two weeks, and we're all worried we're gonna catch it then in the Doctor's office. :-(

 

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Just random questions- feel free to answer or point out where I'm wrong. I've generally been optimistic but I'm starting to lose the faith...

I'm not seeing any evidence this is slowing down nationally? Looks to me like a sine wave that goes on forever rather than a curve. I mocked the CHIME model the DC Mayor originally put out (which had them peaking in July) but that seems more likely to me now than the IHME (which is already wrong it seems). Though my question is: if this keeps going into the summer, are we really going to have a second wave in the fall? Take NYC for example- that antibody test showed about 20% may have already had it? There's a lag in antibodies too I think, so that's probably a snapshot of a few weeks ago then? If this keeps going at that rate, aren't many areas of the northeast going to be approaching herd immunity in a few months anyway?

Can anyone give me an example of a respiratory virus that only targets older people and those with metabolic syndromes? All the others I know of hit both very young AND old hard. Also, why is COVID-19 able to spread in warm weather? I don't know of any respiratory virus that transmits well in heat. If heat and lockdowns aren't squashing it, what's to stop it from continuing to spread at the rate it currently is until herd immunity?

My youngest son has to go in the Dr. for his 1-year immunizations in two weeks, and we're all worried we're gonna catch it then in the Doctor's office. :-(

 

I don’t think it’s spreading even close to fast enough to achieve herd immunity in a few months anywhere in the US.  I think cuomo said R0 was less than 1 in nyc currently.  If they just opened back up to business as usual, yes, but with social distancing, no. 

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7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

here’s the h1n1 comparison updated 

Just an unreal chart. Over 55,000 lost in just this month. It’s a staggering total made all the more exceptional that the nation essentially shut down during the same period. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Just an unreal chart. Over 55,000 lost in just this month. It’s a staggering total made all the more exceptional that the nation essentially shut down during the same period. 

And not to mention just the sheer pace of it...what are we talkin...just 2 months in now? Whereas even some of the worst flu seasons took at least entire season to get to their total (I guess you could 4-6 months? Or do they count it by the calendar year?). This thing has been vicious, smh

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Just random questions- feel free to answer or point out where I'm wrong. I've generally been optimistic but I'm starting to lose the faith...

I'm not seeing any evidence this is slowing down nationally? Looks to me like a sine wave that goes on forever rather than a curve. I mocked the CHIME model the DC Mayor originally put out (which had them peaking in July) but that seems more likely to me now than the IHME (which is already wrong it seems). Though my question is: if this keeps going into the summer, are we really going to have a second wave in the fall? Take NYC for example- that antibody test showed about 20% may have already had it? There's a lag in antibodies too I think, so that's probably a snapshot of a few weeks ago then? If this keeps going at that rate, aren't many areas of the northeast going to be approaching herd immunity in a few months anyway?

Can anyone give me an example of a respiratory virus that only targets older people and those with metabolic syndromes? All the others I know of hit both very young AND old hard. Also, why is COVID-19 able to spread in warm weather? I don't know of any respiratory virus that transmits well in heat. If heat and lockdowns aren't squashing it, what's to stop it from continuing to spread at the rate it currently is until herd immunity?

My youngest son has to go in the Dr. for his 1-year immunizations in two weeks, and we're all worried we're gonna catch it then in the Doctor's office. :-(

 

What you are seeing is a decline in cases in the primary hotbed of NYC, but a slow plateauing or slow increase in many other areas. Since we have been mitigating you hopefully shouldn’t see the dramatic spike that we saw in NYC.   

In order to reach herd immunity, we would need somewhere between 60% and 80% of the population to have antibodies.  We are nowhere near that in New York or anywhere else in the country.  The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. 

The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions.  All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it.  The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups.  Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.

Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather.  People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places.     

Take your son to the doctor.  Maybe just one parent goes.  Wear a mask if possible.  Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can.  You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.  

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43 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What you are seeing is a decline in cases in the primary hotbed of NYC, but a slow plateauing or slow increase in many other areas. Since we have been mitigating you hopefully shouldn’t see the dramatic spike that we saw in NYC.   

In order to reach herd immunity, we would need somewhere between 60% and 80% of the population to have antibodies.  We are nowhere near that in New York or anywhere else in the country.  The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. 

The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions.  All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it.  The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups.  Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.

Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather.  People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places.     

Take your son to the doctor.  Maybe just one parent goes.  Wear a mask if possible.  Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can.  You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.  

Bring that hand sanitizer too, and use it a lot and use it often. Wear a mask, social distance, dont touch your face, and use the hand sanitizer a lot. Even put some on touchpoints in your car! This is what I do.

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55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions.  All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it.  The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups.  Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms.

All are equally targeted, yes, but why does it cause such severe illness and death in elderly patients but not infants and toddlers? The flu, RSV, etc. are life-threatening if an infant catches them, yet this seems almost non-existent with COVID-19. 

 

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather.  People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places.     

But again, this seems to be very rare for other respiratory viruses? It doesn't seem like COVID-19 slows down at all in hotter weather.

 

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Take your son to the doctor.  Maybe just one parent goes.  Wear a mask if possible.  Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can.  You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.  

We're trying to take all the precautions we can... masks, gloves, etc. The office claims to be taking precautions too but I'm skeptical on that part.

 

55 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. 

If it's going to be around all summer, then why would we have another "wave"? We've been adding nearly 30,000 cases a day with no end in sight, and that's only a fraction of the true number of cases (I have no idea what that fraction is; no one really does). If we're doing that all summer and fall, I don't see how you wouldn't have some level of herd immunity. It just seems like it's gonna keep going at this rate until it burns itself out (whenever that may be).

Sometimes I think I should just tune out all the news for several months and see what happens.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

All are equally targeted, yes, but why does it cause such severe illness and death in elderly patients but not infants and toddlers? The flu, RSV, etc. are life-threatening if an infant catches them, yet this seems almost non-existent with COVID-19. 

 

But again, this seems to be very rare for other respiratory viruses? It doesn't seem like COVID-19 slows down at all in hotter weather.

 

We're trying to take all the precautions we can... masks, gloves, etc. The office claims to be taking precautions too but I'm skeptical on that part.

 

If it's going to be around all summer, then why would we have another "wave"? We've been adding nearly 30,000 cases a day with no end in sight, and that's only a fraction of the true number of cases (I have no idea what that fraction is; no one really does). If we're doing that all summer and fall, I don't see how you wouldn't have some level of herd immunity. It just seems like it's gonna keep going at this rate until it burns itself out (whenever that may be).

Sometimes I think I should just tune out all the news for several months and see what happens.

I don’t think doctors know for sure why babies don’t seem to suffer severe illness.  I’ve heard a lot of theories but no definitive answers.  Let’s just be thankful that it seems to be the case. 

I don’t think we have enough data at this point to say whether coronavirus does or doesn’t slow down in warm weather.  Just because there are cases in warm weather locations doesn’t mean that the spread isn’t less than it otherwise would have been.  

There will likely be an increase in cases this summer as states start to open back up.  It’s inevitable.  It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t open.  It just means that they need to be properly prepared.  The reference to a second wave in the fall refers to the likelihood that the virus will have a seasonal pattern and we could see a more dramatic uptick in the fall.  We don’t know whether this will be the case but Dr  Fauci has said that it is likely. 

As you’ve noted, this only truly ends when one of three things happens: we reach herd immunity; we have a vaccine; or the virus mutates to a less dangerous form.  Until then we are going to be social distancing, have intermittent shutdowns, etc.  

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@jaydreb

Yes I’m very thankful the impact on children seems to be mild; I am very concerned for my grandparents though.

I don’t have any political ideology- I just like asking questions. I could probably fill this whole page with things I don’t understand. I feel like I understand less than I did two months ago. It still feels to me like we’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle, or some large underlying assumption about COVID-19 must be wrong. 

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6 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@jaydreb

Yes I’m very thankful the impact on children seems to be mild; I am very concerned for my grandparents though.

I don’t have any political ideology- I just like asking questions. I could probably fill this whole page with things I don’t understand. I feel like I understand less than I did two months ago. It still feels to me like we’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle, or some large underlying assumption about COVID-19 must be wrong. 

Never hurts to ask questions.  Its a strange time for all of us.  We are all searching for any info that offers hope that things are getting better.  There shouldn't be any ideology when it comes to wanting the people of our country to be safe and healthy.

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One more thing- how plausible do you all think it is that perhaps the virus was actually here in the US earlier than thought? Community spread was first assumed to be late February, then we found out a woman died on Feb. 6 from community spread, which moved it back to January. What if we find someone who died even earlier? We weren’t testing back then so what if we missed it?

I never understand how COVID-19 was already widespread in all 50 states when we started rigorous testing everywhere. Seems like it had to have been here earlier to become so widespread so fast.

I still wonder if that’s what my family and I had at the end of December (and what my grandmother had in mid-January). Yes, I know with the current data we have, that’s not possible, but I’ll always wonder about it. I don’t even think an antibody test would solve it, as a positive result doesn’t prove *when* you were infected.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

One more thing- how plausible do you all think it is that perhaps the virus was actually here in the US earlier than thought? Community spread was first assumed to be late February, then we found out a woman died on Feb. 6 from community spread, which moved it back to January. What if we find someone who died even earlier? We weren’t testing back then so what if we missed it?

I never understand how COVID-19 was already widespread in all 50 states when we started rigorous testing everywhere. Seems like it had to have been here earlier to become so widespread so fast.

I still wonder if that’s what my family and I had at the end of December (and what my grandmother had in mid-January). Yes, I know with the current data we have, that’s not possible, but I’ll always wonder about it. I don’t even think an antibody test would solve it, as a positive result doesn’t prove *when* you were infected.

It almost certainly was IMO.  A woman who traveled from DC to Italy in early February came back with classic symptoms had a positive antibody test.  Given the amount of international travel that occurs to/from our region it was probably spreading here by early to mid February if not earlier. 

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14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Is “plateau or flattening” a change? I thought it was a drop originally. But it hasn’t dropped at all yet has it? So we haven’t even entered that 14 day countdown?

I do not believe we have started that countdown yet. 

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18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sure. And, also the need to feed their families.

The economics are going to make people desperate. This whole situation is just a ticking time bomb on multiple fronts. It's really scary TBH.

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25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sure. And, also the need to feed their families.

The context of the discussion was all the people out and about and in close contact at parks, trails, lakes, etc.  

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DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available.   It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.

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+893 cases, +62 deaths

+66 new hospitalizations

only 3400 tests came back, still way too low.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available.   It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.

IHME model has been way out to lunch for a while. It's not accurately modeling the backside of the curve, and at any rate, reopenings are going to complicate things as well as people getting vigilance fatigue.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

DC recorded 19 deaths today which I believe is its highest single day total and also reporting less ICU beds available.   It seems like IHME model was way out to lunch on saying DC had already peaked back in early April.

I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. 

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More bad numbers for VA today too.  Cases just aren't showing any trends in a positive way.

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Another day and another increase in every metric.  What ever happened to "15 days to flatten the curve".  I just have this feeling that even if we stay this course the entire month of May the numbers will still keep going up.  I don't know what to think anymore.        

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Just now, H2O said:

More bad numbers for VA today too.  Cases just aren't showing any trends in a positive way.

The one piece of good news that we have right now is that we're not seeing exponential growth, so things are mostly kept at bay. For those who want to reopen, it's not great news right now, but it's a reminder we are staving off something much worse.

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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. 

Yeah I guess for whatever reason it was one the preferred models, seems like this kind of modeling has a long way to go. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I really dont know why people are paying attention to that model anymore. there are so many variables that it cannot account for. it cant predict peoples actions. 

This model was posted in the upstate ny forum. Not sure about its accuracy overall. 

https://covid19-projections.com/

I mean it's not even just people's actions. We don't even have good data on the initial conditions...how many infected...what's the ifr etc. 

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This model was posted in the upstate ny forum. Not sure about its accuracy overall. 

https://covid19-projections.com/

I mean it's not even just people's actions. We don't even have good data on the initial conditions...how many infected...what's the ifr etc. 

yeah, ive seen that one too. i dont pay any attention to them, honestly. I agree with you -- the end product is only as good as the data that goes into it. without a complete picture from the get-go, your end result won't be accurate. 

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