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March 26-28 Severe Threat


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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0806 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 69...  
  
VALID 290106Z - 290200Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 69 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 02Z.  
  
DISCUSSION...STRONG CYCLONE IS MATURING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS NORTHEAST  
MOVEMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL  
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/DRYING TO SURGE NORTHEAST ACROSS IL AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE DEMARCATION OF THIS  
DRYING. FARTHER NORTH, A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT (LAKE REINFORCED)  
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COOK-DE KALB-STEPHENSON COUNTIES.  
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI THIS BOUNDARY MAY STRUGGLE TO  
ADVANCE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILX CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY,  
THOUGH SOME INHIBITION REMAINS JUST ABOVE 850MB. EVEN SO,  
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR  
ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT. FOR THESE REASONS A NEW TORNADO  
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW69.  

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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0758 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION  
OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND  
AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM A  
PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION.  
   
..MIDWEST REGION  
  
THE WARM SECTOR IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING PINCHED OFF ACROSS  
NORTHEAST IA SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD END  
BY 02Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH  
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL IL AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM LINCOLN INDICATED  
AROUND 800 J/KG MLCAPE, LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 80 KT  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  
ORGANIZED STORMS INCUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES,  
A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG THIS EVENING.    
   
..TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS  
  
A SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  
TONIGHT FROM MIDDLE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A  
STRONG UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH  
SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST  
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS  
WELL AS LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 300-400 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM-RELATIVE  
HELICITY WITHIN AN OTHERWISE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE BAND  
OF SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM  
SOUTHWEST IN INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHWEST MS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN  
EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING  
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY  
DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Why have the cells looked so poor in IL and IA? Nothing has the robustness of what we have seen in the MS Valley today

If I recall correctly the storm Prediction Center originally had the MS valley as the area of highest potential today before a model shift northward 

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
856 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 855 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER BARTONVILLE, OR NEAR PEKIN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55  
  MPH.  

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