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March Medium/Long Range Disco

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18z Eps looks more impressive at h5 . Stronger vorticity under us and colder 850s.  Climo favors a cold rainy coastal for this time of year but if an anomalous late  winter type event can happen it surely would need a setup like this to have a shot . 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Jis JMA even has a coastal ....just southeast of OC... :)

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Damn shame we didnt have this set up a month ago. No guarantee it would of worked then either but we would of had a shot.

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9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Damn shame we didnt have this set up a month ago. No guarantee it would of worked then either but we would of had a shot.

So you’re saying there’s a chance

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Whether it’s 41 or 52, either way is not awesome, which was my response to wiggum, on nicer days, even quarantined, I can enjoy a sunny day.

I know just imo the April blocking thing is overblown some. If it’s a sunny day barring some Uber rare arctic shot it’s likely going to be 50-55 degrees. That’s not that bad. It was 55 with a breeze here today and felt great outside in the sun.  55 vs 70 isn’t worth all the worry. And if it’s a rainy day yea a 40 degree rain sucks more than a 50 degree rain but either way I’m not going to be out in it so who cares. 

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Quick look at the latest Eps for our coastal it appears the blocking is so good our low doesn't have enough room to amplify and really blow up close enough to the coast.  Low hieghts to the northeast are inhibiting a nice closed 500 mb low from really getting established it appears.  Still an interesting setup and I will continue to track and one we haven't seen in a long time . 

 

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4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look at the latest Eps for our coastal it appears the blocking is so good our low doesn't have enough room to amplify and really blow up close enough to the coast.  Low hieghts to the northeast are inhibiting a nice closed 500 mb low from really getting established it appears.  Still an interesting setup and I will continue to track and one we haven't seen in a long time . 

 

no cold high is killing us

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

no cold high is killing us

Basically an extension of winter. Fail within 5 or 6 days. Either ends up too warm with crud track or HP overwhelms and storm blows up well S and E off the coast. Pattern persistence has not changed.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

no cold high is killing us

It would have been plenty cold enough 4 weeks ago. Most of our biggest blocking regime snowstorms aren’t arctic cold. 1996 was rare in that regard. Way more often they are cold enough but not super cold. Many of them even looked marginal temp wise from range like feb 2010 and Jan 2016.  A 40 degree rain now would have been a 30 degree snow a month ago. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Basically an extension of winter. Fail within 5 or 6 days. Either ends up too warm with crud track or HP overwhelms and storm blows up well S and E off the coast. Pattern persistence has not changed.

If this was winter...I actually think this has trended the way we want the last couple runs. The upper track is about perfect now. We just need it to amplify more. Not that impossible a get from 5 days. But it won’t matter either way. 

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It would have been plenty cold enough 4 weeks ago. Most of our biggest blocking regime snowstorms aren’t arctic cold. 1996 was rare in that regard. Way more often they are cold enough but not super cold. Many of them even looked marginal temp wise from range like feb 2010 and Jan 2016.  A 40 degree rain now would have been a 30 degree snow a month ago. 

The three big storms in 2009-10 all started out with marginal temps that fell as the storm got going. I recall the first Feb storm, the temp was 37 when it started snowing, but within an hour it was in the low 30s with moderate snow, then most of the storm it was in the mid 20s.(amazing how that happens when we have everything in the right places with a feed of cold, dry air- complete opposite of this winter). The follow up storm a few days later actually was rain here for a while before the mid level low moved over and temps crashed into the 20s in an all out blizzard. The coldest storm by far that winter was the late Jan cold powder event with temps in the mid teens. Ended up with 7-8'" of fluff here, and I actually enjoyed that one almost as much as the biggies- probably some of it had to do with it trending better and better in the last couple days leading up. Looked like a sure miss to the south at one point.

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Interesting Gefs run. H5 has the trailing ns energy diving through  the northern plains catching and phasing  in with our initial ull. Lots of members with strong surface lows closer to the coast and some wintery for far nw areas.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Interesting Gefs run. H5 has the trailing ns energy diving through  the northern plains catching and phasing  in with our initial ull. Lots of members with strong surface lows closer to the coast and some wintery for far nw areas.

WB 18Z GEFS

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this is an interesting scenario.  I am on my off week next week so this might be a nice diversion from the obvious.  We could all use some snow tv.   

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Look at this shit 

 

 

This actually goes against what many private mets think this coming April will be like,  but the weather will do its own thing.  Looking further ahead, some analogs suggest a cooler summer and others a furnace. 

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you know this was inevitable.  We all joked about it.  Watch April be cold. 2020..who knew...I think we will all remember this year until our last breath.  

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So now the GFS decides it wants to trend south with a coastal in the medium range

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

So now the GFS decides it wants to trend south with a coastal in the medium range

Is that good for us?  Afraid to look 

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Is that good for us?  Afraid to look 

Nothing is good for us this time a year except  waiting another 8 months.

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As a poster in the forum just to your north & a long time lurker here, I thought that you guys would enjoy the 0z Canadian for the Wednesday coastal storm.

We are less than 100 hours out, but unfortunately the Canadian doesn’t have much support from the other models at this time.

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5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

As a poster in the forum just to your north & a long time lurker here, I thought that you guys would enjoy the 0z Canadian for the Wednesday coastal storm.

We are less than 100 hours out, but unfortunately the Canadian doesn’t have much support from the other models at this time.

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April 10th 500's look more promising. 

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5 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

April 10th 500's look more promising. 

no no no no!  im going against the seasonal freeze charts and planting my garden now.  the trend is your friend!

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The GEM capitulated to the GFS southern track and ots.  A continuation of a recent weeks pattern that finds much of Virginia/Maryland now beginning to suffer a soil moisture deficit.

both.gif

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13 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEM capitulated to the GFS southern track and ots.  A continuation of a recent weeks pattern that finds much of Virginia/Maryland now beginning to suffer a soil moisture deficit.

both.gif

 

I can assure you fine people there is no soil moisture deficit in Warrenton!  I just tilled up my garden and the clay is saturated!

 

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1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

 

I can assure you fine people there is no soil moisture deficit in Warrenton!  I just tilled up my garden and the clay is saturated!

 

I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall!

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