• Member Statistics

    15,844
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    maley.chris78@gmail.com
    Newest Member
    [email protected]
    Joined
Holston_River_Rambler

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

Recommended Posts

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Transition has got to be 1800’ ish. In to work I crossed Black Oak Ridge

I agree. I'm right at 1300 feet and almost every hill I crossed heading north on HWY 27 that put me up even 200 ft there was a temp drop and snow. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield.  It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early.  Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. 

Note:  Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300'

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I agree. I'm right at 1300 feet and almost every hill I crossed heading north on HWY 27 that put me up even 200 ft there was a temp drop and snow. 

Similar back this way. I had a mix most of the way into Lewisburg. However, when I went over the ridge at about 1100' it was almost all snow. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 showing in my car, and it's a definite mix of rain and snow hitting my windshield.  It's seems to be trying very hard to completely switch to snow here, and I'm surprised to see it happening so early.  Some very big, fat flakes mixing in, and they are easily visible even in the low light of early morning. 

Note:  Most elevations in/near my area are 1050-1300'

 

Where’s your location Jay? I cannot remember. Glad to see you posting again.

 

 

.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PowellVolz said:


You the pro or superintendent?


.

Assistant Superintendent.  We’ve got two 18 hole courses so I run one, and my superintendent runs the other course.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Where’s your location Jay? I cannot remember. Glad to see you posting again.

 

 

.

Thanks.  Glad to be back in the neighborhood.

I'm about 10 miles east of Sevierville, between Douglas Lake and the foothills. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn’t matter much at this point but from the 00z to the 06z the NAM basically doubled its snow output on a line from Knoxville to Huntsville. ebefd4fc71c49320efbf938ec98340c1.jpg


.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks.  Glad to be back in the neighborhood.
I'm about 10 miles east of Sevierville, between Douglas Lake and the foothills. 

That’s right. Have you had any mountain wave issues this year? I noticed the last time I went to Gatlinburg that there’s a lot of tree damage on the Spur and on the Gatlinburg bypass.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Assistant Superintendent.  We’ve got two 18 hole courses so I run one, and my superintendent runs the other course.  

Memphis National?

Used to be AGCS in Knoxville and Atlanta. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

There's some kind of front moving south through TN. 

giphy.gif

That is the dry, colder air advecting in the mid/lower levels...as it pushed to my south temp went from 40/37 to 34/30

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


That’s right. Have you had any mountain wave issues this year? I noticed the last time I went to Gatlinburg that there’s a lot of tree damage on the Spur and on the Gatlinburg bypass.


.

I live in a very unique area when it comes to those events, and I've tried to understand it, but when those occur the wind is usually almost completely calm at home.  I can drive 10-15 minutes closer to the mountains, and the winds will increase exponentially.  I guess if these mtn. winds are true "waves" like in water, my house must be located in the crest or ridge, and not in the trough at the bottom of the mountains.  Not complaining!  Anyway, I've always been fascinated with the dynamics of mtn. wave events.  It's fun to drive around and observe the micro-climates when they do occur.

While typing this, the precipitation here has almost completely switched to snow.  Temp is still 34, so nothing is sticking.  The NAM may be right that 3-4 inches may fall, but very little may stick in reality. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least based on radar the precip seems more healthy and abundant than what I thought was forecasted?  Regardless, here in Johnson City nothing atm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know if it will be right with QPF in my area but the NAM is probably going to miss on changeover. At 10am it has snow on the Plateau and rain in the valley. The Valley appears to have mostly transitioned in areas getting QPF. Heck, I'm actually warmer than some of you way south of me at this point. The top down cooling was very efficient. If you guys get the NAM rates advertised I expect some egg on faces for some forecasters. 

It’s definitely rate induced cooling. Got a little break and the temps went up .6 degrees


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Utvols235 said:

Memphis National?

Used to be AGCS in Knoxville and Atlanta. 

Yeah, Memphis National.  And that’s cool,  y’all got some beautiful courses out that way!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can’t post a pic right now but driving over the ridges into Oak Ridge from Morgan County I could see the snow falling and evaporating on the 3000 foot peaks just north of Oliver Springs. It really did have the look of evaporation eating op the precip and not melting. I guess this mid/ low level dry air means business. The snow was making it about 2/3 of the way down the mts. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like it shifted south just enough to knock me most of the way out of things. Good luck down south. Its gonna be an AN snow winter for Knoxville easily if the NAM verifies with what has already fallen plus this event. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive.

Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall?

 R-S-el.PNG.750cc706e91ad20022c97e07142ee03a.PNG

OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha!

Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back to all rain at the moment.  Seems to switch to snow when precipitation rates increase, so as was stated, this is rate induced.  Any lull, and it goes back to liquid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive.

Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall?

 R-S-el.PNG.750cc706e91ad20022c97e07142ee03a.PNG

OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha!

Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today!

When do you think the areas above Chattanooga (Cleveland to Loudon) will transition? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.