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Holston_River_Rambler

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

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Oak Ridge is reporting heavy snow with 1/4th mile vis, hope they are getting some accumulation out of it for our posters from that area. 

1.75 inches here now, it's snowing around 3/4ths inch per hour rates on average but it's more 1.5 inch per hour then when it backs off it's compacting and melting from below about as fast as it can fall. I wish we'd managed a day in the 20s before this moved in instead of a day in the 50s.

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

HRRR and RAP seem to think rates will jump pretty dramatically:

 

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

Not really sure what the HRRR is smoking, but would be nice to get under those 30 dbz returns for a few more hours. 

Thse 35dbz rates would be close to 1.75 inch per hour rates I believe.

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Snowing pretty heavy still maybe not quite as heavy as before at the moment, but looks like we have somewhere between 1/3-1/2in on the grass now.

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We have around 3 inches here. It seems to already want to be melting off the roads some and gravel areas now, and I doubt we are going to get much more at this point other than just the lighter stuff. It's definitely a beautiful snow though.

 

86842051_193546141712323_5024509985632026624_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_ohc=Q3Wdm6SSahkAX-5wbep&_nc_ht=scontent.fewr1-5.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=2904284463f1d2940c7164781d42ced3&oe=5EC46B9C86994355_186359962698733_529284028365275136_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_ohc=ePbOFw0DrMcAX_koe_o&_nc_ht=scontent.fewr1-2.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=c761008c91adcb39c8357292bb0cf9b1&oe=5EFC5275

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HRRR and RAP seem to think rates will jump pretty dramatically:
 
giphy.gif&key=a60fe842b42971f6dfa2dc194cb66abe69a489301b582d5e760073856cd2a422
giphy.gif&key=7f1b0a54e1938af71a5e55e02f8f13a082d22aa8f52c9be8d860a50455f165ce
Not really sure what the HRRR is smoking, but would be nice to get under those 30 dbz returns for a few more hours. 

That would add up fast, even at suspect temps


.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

That would add up fast, even at suspect temps

yeah, even starting to get some of the bigger flakes mixed in again here. 

I'm just not sure what on earth it's seeing to make rates jump like that. Would be awesome though!

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Yes new lift is coming out of the Mid South. One can deduce it on both satellite and radar trends. It's back of the cloud band, not morally ideal, but it's bullish this time.

GSP NWS put out a late morning AFD that explains this upper feature. Of course they talk about sensible weather their CWA. However their discussion of a new baroclinic leaf coming out of the Mid South is quite relevant to our Region.

Also the subtle surface wave has formed in South Georgia. Surface winds should continue to or maintain backing/northerly. KCHA probably still can't be helped, but others will continue to smile this event.

Bottom line, I would believe those radar simulations for this afternoon.

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Yes new lift is coming out of the Mid South. One can deduce it on both satellite and radar trends. It's back of the cloud band, not morally ideal, but it's bullish this time.
GSP NWS put out a late morning AFD that explains this upper feature. Of course they talk about sensible weather their CWA. However their discussion of a new baroclinic leaf coming out of the Mid South is quite relevant to our Region.
Also the subtle surface wave has formed in South Georgia. Surface winds should continue to or maintain backing/northerly. KCHA probably still can't be helped, but others will continue to smile this event.
Bottom line, I would believe those radar simulations for this afternoon.


“Otherwise, the latest water vapor imagery indicates a speed max
digging across the Corn Belt, with a baroclinic leaf structure
extending from the Arklatx through the Mid-South. Thus, cyclogenesis
is well underway in the vicinity of the western Gulf Coast, and
resultant increase in frontogenesis and QG forcing will allow the
precip shield. to continue progressing northeast across the CWA.”


.
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Here in west knoxville we had about 1 inch at the end of the enhanced line but now most of that has melted off.  The rates have to be very aggressive to maintain the temps needed for accumulation.

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39 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Spoke with the wife in Greeneville, said snow is starting to stick on roads and temp has dropped below 32

Obviously accumulations vary depending on the surface with these marginal temps and warm ground, but I have nearly an 1 inch on my car.  Still coming down at a decent rate, but it’s having a hard time adding to the accumulation. It takes heavy snow rates to really add to the accumulation. The time of day didn’t help here either.

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HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 in KCHA. NAM seemed to do better points north and northwest. Euro caught on so late it just gets partial credit. LOL at the GFS.

Still rain Chattanooga Central Business District. Still figure it ends light snow (no stick) suburbs and even Chattanooga proper outside the Downtown heat island.

That's OK we got ours February 8, that gorgeous Saturday morning.

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