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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell

Bob, just seems like we are in a bad decadal pattern at this point. 2003-2014 was a good run per historical norms. We are in a bad period. Starting in 2017-ish, so we have a few more years to go.The Blizzard of 2016 was unappreciated by many because it seemed lame compared to the 2009-2010 HECS events, but by 2024 we will be begging for half of it.

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4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Topper just said 60s and upper 50s to Friday 

I think this one might be cooked, dude. I am bracing for a chilly mud season lasting through June, honestly. Heavy rain and 50s through May. It's going to be overcast, wet, and windy for like two months straight.

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think this one might be cooked, dude. I am bracing for a chilly mud season lasting through June, honestly. Heavy rain and 50s through May. It's going to be overcast, wet, and windy for like two months straight.

Seattle x4

 

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27 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Bob, just seems like we are in a bad decadal pattern at this point. 2003-2014 was a good run per historical norms. We are in a bad period. Starting in 2017-ish, so we have a few more years to go.The Blizzard of 2016 was unappreciated by many because it seemed lame compared to the 2009-2010 HECS events, but by 2024 we will be begging for half of it.

Man ya really can't say for sure how long it's gonna be It's not always a "decadal pattern" per se (except for the NAO, perhaps...lol)...just look at our history. We have gone through stretches like this before...and each one varied in length. If you haven't already, I'd take a look at our total snowfall history here:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiDic26wr7nAhW0HDQIHW2nC-AQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo

You'll find a lot of boom and bust all throughout with little degree of consistency...lol But the point is...this ain't the first time. And I'm not sure we can predict what effects a changing climate may or may not have on our snow chances here (but I understand your worry about it being negative...we'll just have to see)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Man ya really can't say for sure how long it's gonna be It's not always a "decadal pattern" per se (except for the NAO, perhaps...lol)...just look at our history. We have gone through stretches like this before...and each one varied in length. If you haven't already, I'd take a look at our total snowfall history here:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiDic26wr7nAhW0HDQIHW2nC-AQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo

You'll find a lot of boom and bust all throughout with little degree of consistency...lol

It could be fewer years, but we are in a shit long-term pattern right now. Maybe we break free next year. Keep checking the CFS, I guess.

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8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Gonna score a digital hit with Icon around Valentines

Damn that looks really nice... and it'll be gone in the morning :lol:

 

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Gonna score a digital hit with Icon around Valentines
Gefs 18z around same time

2c3d66d677091d26f9704a251a8ff43e.jpg
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Damn that looks really nice... and it'll be gone in the morning
 
100% .....icon goes to 120 in the morning
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Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. 

What a squeeze play...

icon_z500_vort_atl_61.png

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Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. 
What a squeeze play...
icon_z500_vort_atl_61.png&key=51f5da90017738ef665d2799916a2d7dbddbd80bb394228711fc5a7b6a04c8f1
This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. 
What a squeeze play...
icon_z500_vort_atl_61.png&key=51f5da90017738ef665d2799916a2d7dbddbd80bb394228711fc5a7b6a04c8f1

This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983

Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. 

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Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. 
Can you imagine if we got a hecs this winter in February lol
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Just now, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. 
What a squeeze play...
icon_z500_vort_atl_61.png&key=51f5da90017738ef665d2799916a2d7dbddbd80bb394228711fc5a7b6a04c8f1

This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983

GFS might bring it

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. 

ICON had a closed h5 though... GFS doesn't this run FWIW

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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:
Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. 

Can you imagine if we got a hecs this winter in February lol

All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. 

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Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

ICON had a closed h5 though... GFS doesn't this run FWIW

It was closed through 144. Same shortwave from the pac on the icon. It's a slow roller. Forms between d3-4. Something to watcn

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All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. 
The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this.

I'm back for one more time 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this.

No doubt. It's not going to lock in this far out. Just follow the ball. Could be in real time in 3 days

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No doubt. It's not going to lock in this far out. Just follow the ball. Could be in real time in 3 days
The 18z gefs was very wet though so its interesting for sure
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. 

Personally I've been eyeing next weekend based on history alone, lol PD weekend...4 years since the last footer...ya never know. (so I wouldn't be entirely shocked if this one found a way to work out--but it would be pretty funny considering what we've been through so far, lol)

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. 

The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible

Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. 

If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.

gfs_z500a_nhem_25.png

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. 

The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible

Yea, I've been mostly skipping looking too much. Really bouncy. Go to gfs @ hr126 and click previous run 8 times. That's not that far out in time. Models are all over the place for this timeframe

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