Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 You know things are bleak when you wake up early and discover there hasn't been a single post in any of the mid-Atlantic threads for nearly 5 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, we'll get a solid -NAO going just in time for supercells, wedges and bow echos. Just great... Wedgies, swamp ass? What the hell are we talking about. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Yea we had several mix events last winter too but we certainly had more that tracked under us as well and most of us scored that mid November snowstorm. We all had a pretty good winter overall last year minus the break it took in December and the first part of January. This winter hasn't even been in the same area code since early Jan. We ran a negative AO in late Jan and most of Feb last year and this year we've run a strongly positive AO with spikes of near record + anomalies in Jan/Feb. That's a huge difference upstairs. Folks like Cashtown had about 50" last winter and MDT had an above average season and this year they're looking at a top 5 least snowy meteorological winter if the 2/27 event doesn't deliver anything there. I've lived here my whole almost 34 years and this one's easily going to be the worst winter I've personally seen unless something big happens late. At any rate, yes it's definitely the lack of deep cold air thats a major part of the difference this year. You have a remarkably consistent and strong PV that locks up the arctic air (+AO) among having some combination of unfavorable MJO phases, +EPO, -PNA and it's pretty clear to see why we've had a horrendous storm track to deal with. Storms like to ride that baroclinic boundary between the warm and cold air and we haven't been on the right end of that. And we've had occasional opportunities, but we've just missed out on them. As for the models handling things, I really haven't personally felt they've been any more horrendous than usual in the mid-long range. There's always digital snow to be chased in the long range. But otherwise, I know I've seen enough cutters at all ranges of the models and in reality to last the rest of the decade this winter. I think there's been some instances of the models trying to change the pattern to a more favorable one in the longer range and thus throwing out storms that are favorable for us only to revert back toward the base pattern we've been in most of the winter.. but we've also had pretty good stretches of them showing (correctly) about as much digital snow as real snow (not very much). Also, that Carolina's/SE VA event got lost a little bit in the mid range but was generally seen on the models pretty far out. You put a Euro D10 snowmap of that on back on the 13th... reality had the swath north of that but the prospect of SE snow was seen well in advance. We're now seeing the another event that has been showing up in the progs the last few days around the 27th. A very robust 500mb low undercutting higher heights that are forecast to temporarily build over Canada with also what looks to be a shortwave dropping in from Canada and phasing to make a significant system. This overall 500mb setup looks good for a strong storm system that could develop a heavy swath of snow, but the problem right now on the progs is the alignment looks to be a bit west of where we'd want it. The ridge axis in the west is being progged along the coast instead of over C-PA preferred Idaho. We could be in better business if we can progress this east enough to pop the low on the coast. The 0z GFS/Euro run this surface low up through central/western PA, while the Canadian was a bit better for true central having the developing low running up the coastal plain. Thanks for the run down Mag. My compare to last year was specifically pointed at the fact that almost all systems (save November) either ran to the west of the LSV or at the very least the 850 came over us. The thing that keeps that MA LR thread alive this year is the fact that many of these cutters are shown different out in that 10 day range. My memory from last year was that their true cutter colors were displayed on the models a bit earlier (except the FV3) . Speaking of the FV3 if that truly is the GFS of this year I think that is the most remarkable thing of all of this....this years GFS has hardly shown anything big in the 7-10 range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Coldest morning of the season here...down to 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Coldest morning of the season here...down to 11. Wow...20 on the nose when I left home this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wow...20 on the nose when I left home this morning. Elevation helped me out this Am. Of course my 11 is nothing compared to that -37 just south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Elevation helped me out this Am. Of course my 11 is nothing compared to that -37 just south of me. Deep, deep winter in Foxville, MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: You know things are bleak when you wake up early and discover there hasn't been a single post in any of the mid-Atlantic threads for nearly 5 hours. In winter Americanwx.com without a snow storm shown on LR models is kind of like a casino that forbids gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I must say one positive is we won’t have much discussion about sun angle this year. It sure does feel warm in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 18 hours ago, canderson said: Early next week hitting near 60. Spring has sprung, In the LSV it's going to be a borderline Chamber of Commerce weekend. 50ish, sunshine and light winds both days. Maybe a bit breezy late tomorrow. Time to get out and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In the LSV it's going to be a borderline Chamber of Commerce weekend. 50ish, sunshine and light winds both days. Maybe a bit breezy late tomorrow. Time to get out and enjoy it. Yes...a nice weekend to open windows, except for Maytown he will have the ac set at 40. I'm going to keep the positive vibes going. We only have 213 days, 8 hours and 24 minutes until the first day of fall! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, daxx said: Yes...a nice weekend to open windows, except for Maytown he will have the ac set at 40. I'm going to keep the positive vibes going. We only have 213 days, 8 hours and 24 minutes until the first day of fall! Who is this Maytown character? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, daxx said: Yes...a nice weekend to open windows, except for Maytown he will have the ac set at 40. I'm going to keep the positive vibes going. We only have 213 days, 8 hours and 24 minutes until the first day of fall! Well we'll have fall in late April too probably. /ducks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Well we'll have fall in late April too probably. /ducks A backdoor from hell kind of spring? I'm probably wrong but I think we are headed for a mild spring. You definitely got this Winter right way back in November. Good job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, daxx said: Yes...a nice weekend to open windows, except for Maytown he will have the ac set at 40. I'm going to keep the positive vibes going. We only have 213 days, 8 hours and 24 minutes until the first day of fall! Maytown had the heat on for the 8th night all winter last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Maytown had the heat on for the 8th night all winter last night. I still do not know how you can deal with no heat so many nights. It would be in the 40's on my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I still do not know how you can deal with no heat so many nights. It would be in the 40's on my house. My wife would not be happy with anything below 70. We have a wood stove and once your bones are used to the wood heat, everything else is cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I still do not know how you can deal with no heat so many nights. It would be in the 40's on my house. Lol... I was thinking the same thing... There haven’t been 8 days that my heat has Not been on all winter ! It’s been a mild winter, but come on... it’s not like we have had day after day of 60 + degree weather. Also, people seem to forget that November & the first half of December were pretty cold as well. One more thing on this topic, if it isn’t going to snow, then the temps might as well be in the 60’s or 70’s ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol... I was thinking the same thing... There haven’t been 8 days that my heat has Not been on all winter ! It’s been a mild winter, but come on... it’s not like we have had day after day of 60 + degree weather. Also, people seem to forget that November & the first half of December were pretty cold as well. One more thing on this topic, if it isn’t going to snow, then the temps might as well be in the 60’s or 70’s ! Agreed. Early golf season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol... I was thinking the same thing... There haven’t been 8 days that my heat has Not been on all winter ! It’s been a mild winter, but come on... it’s not like we have had day after day of 60 + degree weather. Also, people seem to forget that November & the first half of December were pretty cold as well. One more thing on this topic, if it isn’t going to snow, then the temps might as well be in the 60’s or 70’s ! Lol... Blizz ready for warm weather. That is the nail in the coffin. This is kind of like the groundhog not seeing his shadow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 For what it’s worth, the 18z GFS has still not given up on the winter storm potential for next Thursday. It tracks the low along the coast with enough cold for snow in the Central & Northern Susquehanna Valley. Maybe there is still a chance with this one or maybe it is just Happy Hour merriment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, daxx said: Lol... Blizz ready for warm weather. That is the nail in the coffin. This is kind of like the groundhog not seeing his shadow! Haha ! I was just posting about snow chances when you posted this! Never give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My wife would not be happy with anything below 70. We have a wood stove and once your bones are used to the wood heat, everything else is cold. Maybe Itstrainingtimeinmaytown uses a stove as well. He probably told me as such before. We use 3 different kinds of heat at different times. Oil, electric and a propane fireplace. Keep it around 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe Itstrainingtimeinmaytown uses a stove as well. He probably told me as such before. We use 3 different kinds of heat at different times. Oil, electric and a propane fireplace. Keep it around 67. I'm sure he meant turning it up from his normal setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, daxx said: I'm sure he meant turning it up from his normal setting. In this house its either heat or A/C. I guess we are old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe Itstrainingtimeinmaytown uses a stove as well. He probably told me as such before. We use 3 different kinds of heat at different times. Oil, electric and a propane fireplace. Keep it around 67. I have natural gas as well. Use the wood stove for cold snaps and always when it’s snow. Nothing better. Let’s just says I’m set for next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe Itstrainingtimeinmaytown uses a stove as well. He probably told me as such before. We use 3 different kinds of heat at different times. Oil, electric and a propane fireplace. Keep it around 67. I run a coal stoker stove. Pretty much a constant 70 degrees in the house. This morning it was 14 degrees and the house was 68. I sure would like us to get one decent snow storm this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 I have gas heat. Like I said earlier it's never once been below 61 this winter. You guys are acting like I live in an igloo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In this house its either heat or A/C. I guess we are old. I recently went 2 weeks with nothing running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol... I was thinking the same thing... There haven’t been 8 days that my heat has Not been on all winter ! It’s been a mild winter, but come on... it’s not like we have had day after day of 60 + degree weather. Also, people seem to forget that November & the first half of December were pretty cold as well. One more thing on this topic, if it isn’t going to snow, then the temps might as well be in the 60’s or 70’s ! 2 hours ago, daxx said: Lol... Blizz ready for warm weather. That is the nail in the coffin. This is kind of like the groundhog not seeing his shadow! Who hacked Blizz's account? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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