SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 wow just got slammed with a huge burst of graupel. Almost an inch in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 What I find unbelievable is that the models for days and days showed a consistent swath of heavy snow over the big Upstate Cities. Now, with in the normal 1 to 2 days, they shift. Why am I STILL surprised over this?? I just don't learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 0Z HRRR looks like crap. Then again, I don't really find it to be a very good model. Noone cares about HRRR. Algorithm probably created by Millenials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 HRRR did sooo poorly with the last one. Had the mix line 100+ miles NW of its eventuality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Noone cares about HRRR. Algorithm probably created by Millenials. All 0Z models so far coming in way south. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Noone cares about HRRR. Algorithm probably created by Millenials. If it was created by Millennials, EVERYBODY would get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Actually, it shows rain/mix for the first couple hours to the north of the snow line over the Lake Plain. Well then a shift south doesn’t seem so bad. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Noone cares about HRRR. Algorithm probably created by Millenials. True, almost as garbage a model as the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Well then a shift south doesn’t seem so bad. Right? Not sure. Then it's just weaker. lol 1 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I feel like I’m in the twilight zone. The NAM looks north with as much or more precip than previous runs. The hrrr really didn’t look bad or that different. I’m confused. Nothing looks that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I feel like I’m in the twilight zone. The NAM looks north with as much or more precip than previous runs. The hrrr really didn’t look bad or that different. I’m confused. Nothing looks that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 NAM looked good, stronger and north. HRRR looked fine. It was never a blockbuster. Some of us can never get enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Precip does look a bit anemic. Typical pull back inside the 36 hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I'd say those are some pretty big changes. Unless I'm seeing things wrong? Other than craving the white stuff more than most people on the planet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I guess I take those accumulated snowfall maps with a grain of salt. It just seems like a good storm track with a reasonable amount of moisture to work with and a better than normal wind trajectory for the subsequent lake effect Ive really only ever expected 3-6 and I think that’s completely within the realm. The point and click from Syracuse is a little depressing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I guess I take those accumulated snowfall maps with a grain of salt. It just seems like a good storm track with a reasonable amount of moisture to work with and a better than normal wind trajectory for the subsequent lake effect Ive really only ever expected 3-6 and I think that’s completely within the realm. The point and click from Syracuse is a little depressing though. Yeah with that track and moisture I'm going with 5-8" across all of WNY, double digit totals in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I try and ignore the precip maps and focus on the track and strength. It’s tough. I too hope for clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I guess I take those accumulated snowfall maps with a grain of salt. It just seems like a good storm track with a reasonable amount of moisture to work with and a better than normal wind trajectory for the subsequent lake effect Ive really only ever expected 3-6 and I think that’s completely within the realm. The point and click from Syracuse is a little depressing though. BGM's forecasts for Syracuse are often depressing....lol I have noticed they either over-forecast or under-forecast snowfall amounts. They did pretty good with last week's system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Some heavy snow on the RGEM, a little further NW then the other solutions. It's sort of a 2 part storm, initial low and then the shortwave behind it with leftover moisture/lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Hmm, ok. I'll take your words for it. You guys definitely know Upstate New York's climate better than I do. Maybe it's a good thing the mesos are farther south. If I recall correctly, they have generally been farther south with systems than what they actually end up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On a different note, looks like a nice little band flaring up off Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Brief lake response this evening, quick refresher.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 I forgot what a lake effect band looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Interesting. My P&C just went up to "2 inches of snow" overnight. As of now, just getting some snow showers here. If we get snow overnight, it will be the 7th morning out of the past 8 that I have had to brush snow off my car. We had a surprise heavy coating this morning. Probably one of the most wintry periods of the season so far. By the end of the week, that could be 10 out of 11 mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I try and ignore the precip maps and focus on the track and strength. It’s tough. I too hope for clown maps. I pay absolutely no mind to precip maps cause they are wrong every single time and please do a study if ya want cause I did one, and I almost laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Super windy where I am I can tell ya that, with some light snow from the CF thats moving through but it heads back North, lol, so thats why the P&C went up to 2" as perhaps they were not to confident to forecast till the band formed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Yeah just looked outside and its coming down at a decent clip but its wet and pasty, lol, accumulating to everything, 33F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Bummer, looking at radar, it looks to be staying in Oswego County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The heaviest action is directly between Wolfie and I, lol, and its headed ur way bro so you'll see the most from this bit o lift that zipping through, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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