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Fields27

Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco

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49 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Soak it in because it's all down hill from here...

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

 

No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience.

well, to be fair, the GFS has had some semblance of this for a few days now, although it did lose it in the 06Z today.  This is the storm I posted about where the surface depiction didnt match the upper air IMO.

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35 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

well, to be fair, the GFS has had some semblance of this for a few days now, although it did lose it in the 06Z today.  This is the storm I posted about where the surface depiction didnt match the upper air IMO.

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well.

All true, but as depicted, a storm like that would create its own cold air.  But, yes, I don't see it as really at all likely at this point.

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20 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

The previous version was erratic until about 3 days out. No data to check with the new version since we haven't had one since its been in service full time (almost a year?). Another reason why we need a Miller A, lol.

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42 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

It's a hybrid on the ECM with northern stream phasing. 

 

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It's a hybrid on the ECM with northern stream phasing. 
 
The mid week system yes. But the super bowl system looks like a true Miller A, correct? My fault for not clarifying.

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2 hours ago, Fields27 said:

The mid week system yes. But the super bowl system looks like a true Miller A, correct? My fault for not clarifying.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS.

Yes the hybrid, but give it a chance i liked this one lol

 

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Very reminiscent of the late 80's/early 90's where we did that stretch from 86/87 to 92/93 with not much to show for it. At least we're not alone, looks like European and Russian weenies are in the same boat as us.

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On 1/24/2020 at 4:57 PM, CoolHandMike said:

Looking forward to wxsim saying 4-6 feet of snow next weekend. ;)

It's coming Mike....but remember it is just spitting out what the GFS and NAM are selling.....it is NOT a model.....just a tool. It will swing with every model change which we know this year is major from run to run

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13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's a massive southern branch storm and there is no arctic high to block this, throw in this seasons strong SE ridge this has no shot. 

I would not say “no shot” this far out. Especially if it is a coastal and bombs out like some runs say.

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Larry Cosgrove believes chance for a strong Miller A type storm is real for next weekend but is still unsure (as most of us are) on precipitation types but he is leaning towards a lesser probability of frozen near the coast/big cites and going with a "chance" for now. 

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In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March.  On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see.

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Have been barking about the Feb 6-14 period for quite a while now as being the best pattern we will see so far this year. Key tellies are still there and moving closer and not staying put in la la land. Positive PNA, -EPO, -NAO, neutral to neg AO. Cant get specific about storms BUT the ops are beginning  to bark at this period now in addition to the ens means. This period is gaining legs. I will take a 1 week window with 1 or 2 threats. If we can lock the pattern in for longer then that is a bonus. 

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Little extreme and probably.wont verify as progged but there is a neg NAO across guidance now with growing support for that feature on the ens means. We can only hope these looks are even somewhat close because they would produce something for us. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_42.png

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