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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Ugh why do so many have to be so good? It almost doesn't make sense this close either...

about half of the members have a significant hit - so 50 - 50 chance right now on the Euro still being 4+ days out - jury is still out...…….

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This panel seems most likely from what I can tell from models at this time, but I'm sure all the models will change over next two days.9b565f4e8e55e838d3252ba37cfe5b0a.jpg

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1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

 

Kinda need to get up real close when it comes to phasing.

That`s a real  split camp , hitters and whiffs.

Need some time here. 

We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close.

Nice to dream tho.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close.

How do you know they are out to lunch?

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8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close.

we do ? bold statements require some evidence to back it up with...……...

Even the long range NAM is on board BUT won't be entering its more accurate range for another 24 hours

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A faster phase may come down to a stronger southern stream UL like the NAM has. 

0850BF42-BE89-4418-A892-05BC41A0F503.thumb.png.c6776b3417f44937b5f6e78fb3f70b33.png

757386C8-99A1-4E3B-9853-11CC27FF3829.gif.402615bf02569b632552f1f1712a912c.gif

 

It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO. 

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53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO. 

Progressive split flow patterns need a robust enough southern stream UL so the Great Lakes UL doesn’t suppress it.

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

How do you know they are out to lunch?

one can argue pattern persistence-90% of the time with this type of pattern, a big east coast storm won't work out. Time and time again this winter-ensemble members have shown snows only for it to not verify-why? The pattern doesn't support it.

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18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

one can argue pattern persistence-90% of the time with this type of pattern, a big east coast storm won't work out. Time and time again this winter-ensemble members have shown snows only for it to not verify-why? The pattern doesn't support it.

Yeah it's been a constant parade of failure all winter with mid range ensemble ghost snows. 

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8 hours ago, PB-99 said:

The air mass %^&.

 

You would need the cleanest of phases and a perfectly placed deepening system.

 

Or you could play 6, 15, 24, 38, 55, 63  * 5 and see if that works too. 

 

 

1583539200-K0614dTzRAE.png

 

 

 

I'm not actually that worriedf about the airmass, we're talking a sub 980 low here, it's a hit or miss meaning either we miss or get scraped with nothing (most likely outcome) or if it's close enough to be a real storm it will change to heavy wet snow with dynamics

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1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm not actually that worriedf about the airmass, we're talking a sub 980 low here, it's a hit or miss meaning either we miss or get scraped with nothing (most likely outcome) or if it's close enough to be a real storm it will change to heavy wet snow with dynamics

If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out. 

I give up this is white rain for us and we move on maybe some accumulations by Montauk Saturday morning. I’m done!

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out. 

Yes to me light or moderate is not a real storm anyway, if it's heavy then it's snow, the airmass won't be an issue if the low is closer to the coast and the precip is intense. But yea we're a long way from that and with where the models are at and the say the winter is going I'm sure it will stay well out to sea    

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37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This threat is over. It had a chance but nothing wants to go right. 

you saw the 0Z NAM

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I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase. 

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6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase. 

Snow  is snow

I dont care if its 80 the next day .

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Forgive my ignorance. A lot has been made of the fast flow not allowing storms to make the turn up the coast and amplify. If the flow is so fast how are so many storms this year able to cut and amplify so far west of here?

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Same old story of the fast northern stream suppressing the southern stream. Notice how the jet hitting the PAC NW knocks down the ridge out west too quickly. With a raging +AO, we would have needed substantial help from the Pacific.
 

A4F97106-8B30-4914-8B25-B02DA91792BF.gif.e50fbf8c72f3d9dedf1bfb64406075e6.gif

 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Snow  is snow

I dont care if its 80 the next day .

Anthony, bless you, your resolve is unbreakable. I’ll try to keep that in mind as I avoid litigation by shoveling heavy slush off my row house steps. That and the third degree sunburn I’ll get on my hairless pate because I can’t find my sunscreen the first week of March. Other than that, my compliments and admiration go to you. As always ....

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Snow  is snow

I don't care if its 80 the next day .

You obviously live a paved life :( At this point in the year a heavy wet snow will do nothing other than make mud, lots of MUD. This ruins most outdoor activities other than walking on the sidewalk (nearest one of those to me is almost 2 miles away), it wipes out the chance to get the garden going early so we can eat fresh food that's good for us and it destroys my business and puts my income off until June. If you want to see snow go find it, stop hoping for an event that will do nothing more than disrupt the lives of the other couple of million people that live in the area outside of your little Brooklyn/NYC paved and concrete world.

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10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase. 

This ^^^^ so much this...

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