Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Cold day out there, current temp 28/DP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HELLO THERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: HELLO THERE Yeah, not gonna work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, not gonna work No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, not gonna work Now the Interior is close , it`s not always about NYC. 2 days ago it was Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) Did you bother to look at the surface map ? It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 At 222 it`s plus 1 at 850 and - 1 at 925 This just went from a low to Chicago to one off the Delmarva with 8 days to go. I would keep an eye on it, it`s different than what this was doing yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: The mjo the last two years has been incredibly frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol. Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out. The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, not gonna work Not the point. This was a lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Did you bother to look at the surface map ? It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 on the canadian? No it's in the 40's (edit-sorry I thought this was the CMC you were referencing-did not see the euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Temps are in the mid 20s in the H/V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Not the point. This was a lakes cutter Agreed the models are all over the place. It’s a good sign that it’s closer that’s all we can look at right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases. Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: on the canadian? No it's in the 40's Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ? You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL Oh Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Temps are in the mid 20s in the H/V that's not great either-awesome track yet's it's rain back to JB.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ? You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL Oh Brian that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley. Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: that's not great either-awesome track yet's it's rain back to JB.... Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine. The Euro is in the 20`s N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) These are posts that make this place look misinformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine. The Euro is in the 20`s N and W you're putting lipstick on a pig---..and who cares anyway it's a 216 hr prog on an OP model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley. Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps. I know right? I took the bait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: I know right? I took the bait... Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught LOL. I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro. My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass (outside of ME/NH/VT and even that is retreating) and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer... I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL. I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro. My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer... I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it. I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva. I actually hope this becomes the 50/50 low for the next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: I actually hope this becomes the 50/50 low for the next storm... I hope there`s a next storm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post. The other interesting thing is the really delayed responses we have seen following MJO 8 passages during our recent winters. Last February we entered phase 8 but the snowy conditions came in March. February 2018 featured the historic 80 degree warmth shortly after the MJO 8 passage. The record snows came in March 2018. The only reasonably close in time event was the 1-4-18 benchmark blizzard that bottomed out at 950 mb. That came shortly after the phase 8 in late December. The January 2016 blizzard came about 10 days after phase 8. I know that there have been studies showing a snowstorm lag following phase 8. But sometimes it seems to take longer than even the studies have indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I hope there`s a next storm ! its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: its over Is that your call ? As in totally over ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Is that your call ? As in totally over ? NYC wont reach 20" of snow this year. Thats my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: NYC wont reach 20" of snow this year. Thats my call. Possible. I think you and I will tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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