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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air.   (road trip to Maine?)

 

Did you bother to look at the surface map ? 

It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 

At 222 it`s plus 1 at 850 and - 1 at 925

This just went from a low to Chicago to one off the Delmarva with 8 days to go.

 

I would keep an eye on it, it`s different than what this was doing yesterday 

 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The mjo the last two years has been incredibly  frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol.

 

Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out. 

 

 

The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases.

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases.

 

 

 

Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

on the canadian?  No it's in the 40's

gem_T2m_neus_37.png

 

Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ?

 

You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL

 

Oh Brian 

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Just now, PB-99 said:

 

Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ?

 

You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL

 

Oh Brian 

that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley.      Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about

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6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught 

LOL.   I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro.  My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass (outside of ME/NH/VT and even that is retreating) and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer...  I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.   I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro.  My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer...  I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it.

 

I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva.

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34 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post.

The other interesting thing is the really delayed responses we have seen following MJO 8 passages during our recent winters. Last February we entered phase 8 but the snowy conditions came in March. February 2018 featured the historic 80 degree warmth shortly after the MJO 8 passage. The record snows came in March 2018. The only reasonably close in time event was the 1-4-18 benchmark blizzard that bottomed out at 950 mb. That came shortly after the phase 8 in late December. The January 2016 blizzard came about 10 days after phase 8. I know that there have been studies showing a snowstorm lag following phase 8. But sometimes it seems to take longer than even the studies have indicated. 

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