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janetjanet998

12-16 Severe threat - LA/MS into AL

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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1020 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST LA TO  
CENTRAL MS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP  
SOUTH WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE  
PEAK TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, CENTERED ON  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  
   
..LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH  
  
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS OUTLOOK ARE TO INCREASE TORNADO AND WIND  
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. IN ADDITION, THE SLGT RISK HAS  
BEEN EXPANDED NORTH FOR WIND INTO MIDDLE TN NEAR THE EXPECTED  
SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK.  
  
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE SABINE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS, ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD  
FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE  
MID-SOUTH AND MS/AL REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.   
SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT  
WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA  
ACROSS CENTRAL MS WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE,  
AND SHOULD ACCESS THE MOST FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE.   
DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON CONVECTIVE EVENT AREA-WIDE.  
SEVERE HAIL IS MOST PROBABLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK  
AREA, ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES.    
  
12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERLYING  
THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME (CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW  
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS) EMANATING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF.  
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR, BUT MODERATE  
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG  
WILL PERSIST IN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS LA  
THROUGH PARTS OF MS. RELATIVELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS, BENEATH A  
40-60-KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS  
AND 300+ EFFECTIVE SRH.    
  
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WARM-SECTOR SUPERCELLS, SUCH AS  
PROGGED BY THE HRRR, HRRR-P AND WRF-ARW, SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WILL  
SUPPORT A RISK FOR MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. OTHERWISE,  
REGARDLESS OF WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE DENSITY, A BAND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND SHIFT ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
OFFER A RISK FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED  
QLCS TORNADOES. IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY WEAKER  
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LESS INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE  
CONTENT WITH NORTHEAST/EASTERN EXTENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A  
SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TONIGHT.  
  
..GRAMS/WENDT.. 12/16/2019  
  

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 700  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1040 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS  
  LOUISIANA  
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
  FAR EASTERN TEXAS  
  COASTAL WATERS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL  
  600 PM CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS  
    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS  
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS  
AFTERNOON. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH THE  
PEAK TORNADO RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA  
INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.  
  

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SC021-149-161800-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/  
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-  
1116 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1115 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT GIBSON,
OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1124 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700...  
  
VALID 161724Z - 161900Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 700 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS DEVELOPING  
ACROSS CENTRAL LA.  
  
DISCUSSION...RECENT VAD DATA FROM KPOE AND KLCH CONTINUES TO SHOW  
LONG HODOGRAPHS (I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT) AND VERTICALLY  
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA  
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT FROM  
THE SOUTH. RECENT MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SMALL AREA OF 45 KT 850-MB  
WINDS OVER CENTRAL LA, MATCHING EXPECTATIONS BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL  
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH  
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING 2000 J/KG MLCAPE NOW STRETCHING INTO  
SOUTHWEST LA AND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  
  
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT  
HOUR OR TWO, RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE INCREASED  
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, A  
CORRIDOR OF INCREASED TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS  
CENTRAL LA. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF  
THIS AREA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG  
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  
  

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MS storm still PDS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1125 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
MSC021-149-161800-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/  
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-  
1125 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1124 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR YOKENA, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 35 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

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STILL PDS in MS

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
MSC021-149-161800-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/  
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-  
1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1132 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR YOKENA, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 30 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SPECIFICALLY SOUTHERN  
VERNON COUNTY  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700...  
  
VALID 161733Z - 161800Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 700 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO  
POTENTIALLY INTENSE TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 110 TO 155  
MPH (EF1-EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING.  
  
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KPOE AND KLCH AS OF 17:31Z  
REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5-0.9 DEGREE  
ROTATIONAL VELOCITY BETWEEN 61 AND 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS  
SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE  
SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP  
BETWEEN 4 AND 5. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS  
PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 110 TO 155 MPH  
AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LIKELY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE  
TORNADO. A TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON THE  
ROTATIONAL VELOCITY CONTINUITY AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A  
FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.  

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Very much reminds me of the 2014 Vilonia, AR cell in reflectivity structure and persistence. Fortunately at this time its peak strength appears to be occurring in the Louisiana rurals NE of DeRidder. It may maintain or re-cycle before Alexandria, though.

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Hopefully the cell SW of Alexandria will cycle, looks like it's trying to, but Google earth shows the areas just north of Alexandria are fairly well populated and this looks to go right over them in about 30 minutes or so.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1241 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALEXANDRIA...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana...

* Until 115 PM CST.

* At 1239 PM CST, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed near Alexandria International Airport, moving northeast at
  25 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for ALEXANDRIA. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION.
  TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Alexandria and Alexandria International Airport around 1245 PM
  CST.
  Pineville around 100 PM CST.
  Tioga, Kingsville and Timber Trails around 105 PM CST.
  Ball and Paradise around 110 PM CST.
  Esler Regional Airport and Libuse around 115 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors.. Move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 9219 3147 9216 3146 9217 3145 9215
      3143 9216 3142 9215 3120 9260 3129 9270
      3141 9256 3141 9254 3148 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 230DEG 22KT 3128 9257

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...<.75IN

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