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John1122

12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.

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We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates.  

Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley.

WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell.

Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That 18z GFS was its biggest run to date. Really increased totals for Arkansas and North Miss into West Tenn vs 12z.  

  Nice run for sure, especially when the EURO is on board with it as well.  Nice trends on most models today 

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Just now, AMZ8990 said:

  Nice run for sure, especially when the EURO is on board with it as well.  Nice trends on most models today 

At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground.  Not much middle ground with this one.  

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground.  Not much middle ground with this one.  

I’d rather have it that way any day.  Much more fun without the constant wondering of which in particular mode was correct. 

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5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground.  Not much middle ground with this one.  

I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd put my money on the former. The past couple years have broken my trust in the models and their ability to predict snow in Middle Tennessee. I'll happily eat crow, though. A lot of crow.

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2 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said:

I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd put my money on the former. The past couple years have broken my trust in the models and their ability to predict snow in Middle Tennessee. I'll happily eat crow, though. A lot of crow.

I’m right there with you,  I’m in a constant thought of were just getting NAMMED by all the models anytime it shows snow.  lol

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The NAM is like Vol Twitter. Not always right but aggressive and fun to watch. Sometimes it wins big. 

 

That being said it’s nice to have two systems this early in the season that we’ve been able to watch. Lets hope things keep trending the right way. 

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3 minutes ago, Utvols235 said:

The NAM is like Vol Twitter. Not always right but aggressive and fun to watch. Sometimes it wins big. 

 

That being said it’s nice to have two systems this early in the season that we’ve been able to watch. Lets hope things keep trending the right way. 

You been on VOLNATIOn today??  it got pretty crazy in there today.  Lol.  I’m  glad we’re headed to the gator bowl though.  GBO

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30 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said:

I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd put my money on the former. The past couple years have broken my trust in the models and their ability to predict snow in Middle Tennessee. I'll happily eat crow, though. A lot of crow.

Guessing that you are an LSU Tiger due to your handle...since they have had such a great year, you probably need to post in each winter thread so some of that good mojo can rub off.  

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I know one thing for sure, I don't envy the position of the mets in forecasting this potential snow. A lot is going to depend on how quickly cold air advection reaches the precipitation shield. (If there is much of one) I'd say this is a situation where being north and west may be just as helpful as being at a good elevation. On another note the RGEM fwiw sure is making a lot of fanfare for it's debut depicting this one! (hour 54 and still plenty left to go at the end of it's run)

Screenshot 2019-12-08 at 6.30.39 PM.png

 

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Pretty close to being the big dog in mId Tn 18z run,the thermals make me squirmish tho

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            18Z DEC08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  13.0     5.3     135   11391    18008                   0.00    
SUN 21Z 08-DEC  12.6     6.1     135   11425    17009           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 09-DEC  11.8     6.7     135   11708    16011           0.00    0.00    
MON 03Z 09-DEC  10.9     7.3     135   11147    17013           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  11.2     7.9     135    9970    18012           0.00    0.00    
MON 09Z 09-DEC  11.7     7.7     135   10358    18013           0.00    0.00    
MON 12Z 09-DEC  12.9     7.2     135   10872    18014           0.00    0.00    
MON 15Z 09-DEC  15.5     8.6     136   10591    19016     RA    0.00    0.00    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  17.2     8.5     137   10695    21015           0.00    0.00    
MON 21Z 09-DEC  16.1     8.9     137   11016    22013     RA    0.01    0.00    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  16.8     9.4     137    9911    22012     RA    0.02    0.00    
TUE 03Z 10-DEC  16.6     9.6     137    9951    23010     RA    0.02    0.00    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  14.9     8.6     136    9945    28006     RA    0.03    0.00    
TUE 09Z 10-DEC  10.0     6.4     134   10072    33010           0.01    0.00    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC   4.1     3.0     131   10217    34011           0.02    0.00    
TUE 15Z 10-DEC   1.3     0.5     130    6203    34007     SN    0.12    0.02    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC   0.5     0.6     129    6742    36008     SN    0.27    0.10    
TUE 21Z 10-DEC  -0.1    -0.9     129    5370    00007     SN    0.07    0.15    
WED 00Z 11-DEC  -0.6    -0.8     129    2803    35004     SN    0.16    0.21    
WED 03Z 11-DEC  -1.2    -1.5     129     120    36006     SN    0.09    0.30    
WED 06Z 11-DEC  -2.0     0.1     129    3999    02004           0.11    0.35    
WED 09Z 11-DEC  -4.4     0.3     129    4681    02003           0.00    0.35    

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Thes are also 3-hr increments,just pointing that out,just trying to figure out when fz heights fall

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            18Z DEC08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  13.1     4.2     134   10607    20003                   0.00    
SUN 21Z 08-DEC  12.9     5.6     135   10712    31000           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 09-DEC   9.9     6.8     135   10879    12001           0.00    0.00    
MON 03Z 09-DEC   9.3     7.8     135    9087    14001           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 09-DEC   9.1     7.6     135    9362    14003           0.01    0.00    
MON 09Z 09-DEC   8.9     8.4     135    9741    11004           0.01    0.00    
MON 12Z 09-DEC   9.1     8.6     135   10304    15004           0.05    0.00    
MON 15Z 09-DEC  11.0     9.1     135   11059    16004           0.00    0.00    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  14.1     8.0     136   11051    21007           0.00    0.00    
MON 21Z 09-DEC  15.9     8.5     137   11181    20010           0.00    0.00    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  15.0     9.0     137   10780    20009     RA    0.00    0.00    
TUE 03Z 10-DEC  15.1     9.8     137   11117    21008     RA    0.01    0.00    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  14.9    10.1     137   11401    21008     RA    0.01    0.00    
TUE 09Z 10-DEC  15.3    10.3     137   11561    21008     RA    0.02    0.00    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC  14.8     9.5     137   11699    28004     RA    0.23    0.00    
TUE 15Z 10-DEC  10.4     4.3     134   11558    35004     RA    0.30    0.00    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC   7.4     2.5     133   11390    34005     RA    0.40    0.00    
TUE 21Z 10-DEC   5.7     1.4     132   10449    00006     RA    0.17    0.00    
WED 00Z 11-DEC   3.4     0.5     131    7012    01006     RA    0.34    0.00    
WED 03Z 11-DEC   3.1     0.0     131    7281    03005     RA    0.10    0.00    
WED 06Z 11-DEC   1.9    -0.7     130    5030    00006     SN    0.20    0.02    
WED 09Z 11-DEC   1.0    -1.6     130    2631    01004     SN    0.14    0.15    
WED 12Z 11-DEC   0.8     0.9     130    5836    03003           0.15    0.18    
WED 15Z 11-DEC   2.6     1.1     131    6235    01004           0.00    0.16    
WED 18Z 11-DEC   5.8    -0.1     131    4979    01004           0.00    0.13    
WED 21Z 11-DEC   5.8    -0.3     131    4744    03004           0.00    0.08    
THU 00Z 12-DEC   2.7     0.3     131    6258    04003           0.00    0.08    
THU 03Z 12-DEC   1.5     0.8     131    7225    04004           0.00    0.08    
THU 06Z 12-DEC   1.0     1.8     131    8099    06004           0.00    0.08    
THU 09Z 12-DEC   0.6     2.8     131    8017    05004           0.00    0.08    
THU 12Z 12-DEC   0.4     3.6     132    7980    05004           0.00    0.08    
THU 15Z 12-DEC   4.2     4.3     132    8513    05004           0.00    0.08    
THU 18Z 12-DEC   8.5     4.4     133    8908    05003           0.00    0.07  

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GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            18Z DEC08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  14.3     8.0     135   12364    19009                   0.00    
SUN 21Z 08-DEC  14.9     8.6     135   12092    19011           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 09-DEC  12.7     9.4     136   11827    18009           0.00    0.00    
MON 03Z 09-DEC  13.5    10.2     136   11473    18012           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  13.5     9.4     136   11417    19012           0.00    0.00    
MON 09Z 09-DEC  13.6     9.7     136   11295    18014           0.00    0.00    
MON 12Z 09-DEC  13.4    13.9     136   10717    20013           0.00    0.00    
MON 15Z 09-DEC  14.9    10.3     136   11181    20015     RA    0.00    0.00    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  17.7     9.7     137   11689    21015     RA    0.00    0.00    
MON 21Z 09-DEC  18.6    10.6     137   10839    22013     RA    0.00    0.00    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  17.4     9.2     137   10808    23008     RA    0.01    0.00    
TUE 03Z 10-DEC  15.5     9.3     136   10859    31009           0.00    0.00    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  11.3     8.4     134    9964    34011           0.00    0.00    
TUE 09Z 10-DEC   5.6     4.4     132   10334    35012           0.00    0.00    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC   2.9     1.6     130    6889    35009     RA    0.09    0.00    
TUE 15Z 10-DEC   1.7     2.1     130    6951    01010     SN    0.14    0.04    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC   1.2    -0.1     130    6108    01009     SN    0.23    0.09    
TUE 21Z 10-DEC   0.7    -0.3     130    6946    02007     SN    0.10    0.16    
WED 00Z 11-DEC   0.6    -1.5     129     416    02007     SN    0.13    0.24    
WED 03Z 11-DEC   0.0    -0.5     130    3000    04005           0.00    0.24    
WED 06Z 11-DEC  -1.0     1.3     130    6276    03005           0.00    0.24    
WED 09Z 11-DEC  -2.0     2.1     131    6331    07005           0.00    0.24    
WED 12Z 11-DEC  -2.0     2.2     131    6348    05004           0.00    0.24    
WED 15Z 11-DEC   0.5     1.9     131    6105    06005           0.00    0.24    
WED 18Z 11-DEC   4.5     1.9     132    6606    07005           0.00    0.16    
WED 21Z 11-DEC   5.5     2.3     132    8113    06005           0.00    0.08    
THU 00Z 12-DEC   2.5     2.4     132    7964    06005           0.00    0.08    
THU 03Z 12-DEC   1.9     3.0     133    7885    07006           0.00    0.08    
THU 06Z 12-DEC   1.3     3.8     133    8051    09006           0.00    0.08    
THU 09Z 12-DEC   1.6     4.1     133    8542    08006           0.00    0.08    
THU 12Z 12-DEC   1.5     3.8     133    8401    07007           0.00    0.08    
THU 15Z 12-DEC   4.1     4.8     133    9940    09009           0.00    0.08    
THU 18Z 12-DEC   8.3     5.2     133   10181    10007           0.00    0.04    



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Trend continued over all the 12z/18z models of strengthening on the trailing energy, including the NAM. CMC generated a low, but lost the connection to the front (if strengthening can continue with a weak low reflection riding up the front...could be looking at a real big dog for plateau west). For central/southern valley of east tn (south 40), still need quite a bit of changes in the energy.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Guessing that you are an LSU Tiger due to your handle...since they have had such a great year, you probably need to post in each winter thread so some of that good mojo can rub off.  

If that's what it takes to right this ship, then can do, boss! :thumbsup:

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5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Close up of the 18z Euro

20191208_195454.jpg

Looks better than a couple days ago.The high temp would be in the early morning and temps would gradually fall during the day.I really believe the orographic lift towards the plateau are going to do much better than what is being shown,seen this to many times

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Looks better than a couple days ago.The high temp would be in the early morning and temps would gradually fall during the day.I really believe the orographic lift towards the plateau are going to do much better than what is being shown,seen this to many times
The trail energy behind the front is key..NAM is stronger and further west of the main front, while GFS is weaker and more over central TN to the plateau. Trail energy catches the front along the smokies, not providing very much lift for the eastern valley..becoming more orographic dependent for lift. Which is correct is the biggest question. I think you're in a good spot (unless modeling starts loosing the trail energy) as far as lift.17467b9f40c0dc05b2b2f1d35ceae0f5.jpgff5cb54656c4aa241b9810ad9dd08101.jpg

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SREF just jumped up over SE KY (not populated for TN locations as of me making this gif). An even better NAMing incoming? Is that even possible? 

giphy.gif

 

 

 

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