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Steve

“Let’s Talk Winter”

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On 2/29/2020 at 8:54 PM, Indystorm said:

Absolutely amazing.   Global warming anyone?

Just a warm Winter and some extra bad luck for Evansville and Paducah. These winters going to happen from time to time.  Seeing as though they only average 8 to 10" for met Winter, I'm surprised this has not happened more often to be honest with you.

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Hah, yeah. There is no one out there who has 70% success rate. No way.

I guess it depends how you grade.  I think the elite forecasters do hit the general character of the winter more often than not.  If somebody goes warmer than average, say +1 to +3 for DJF and it ends up +4, I count that as a success because of the long lead time involved.  

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13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

This is why I always follow the farmer's almanac.  60% of the time it works every time.  

Not so good this year.   I believe they had my region as being....let's see if I can recall the scientific term again....hmmmm...oh yea...   "Bone chilling cold"

That being said, I give them more credit than JB.  At least the Farmers Almanac can use the excuse that their methodology, (furriness of squirrels and stripes on a caterpillar), can be flawed at times.   JB actually uses meterological science and still ends up with a forecast opposite of reality.  

I just did my usual end of season subscription cancellation.   I really wish I could find a model site as nice and thorough as wxbell's....and as cheap.  I hate giving my money to them but their model site is awesome.    I sent an email and asked if I could get a subscription discount if I just had access to the model pages and not the meterologists blogs and videos....no response :lol:

 

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4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Not so good this year.   I believe they had my region as being....let's see if I can recall the scientific term again....hmmmm...oh yea...   "Bone chilling cold"

That being said, I give them more credit than JB.  At least the Farmers Almanac can use the excuse that their methodology, (furriness of squirrels and stripes on a caterpillar), can be flawed at times.   JB actually uses meterological science and still ends up with a forecast opposite of reality.  

I just did my usual end of season subscription cancellation.   I really wish I could find a model site as nice and thorough as wxbell's....and as cheap.  I hate giving my money to them but their model site is awesome.    I sent an email and asked if I could get a subscription discount if I just had access to the model pages and not the meterologists blogs and videos....no response :lol:

 

Have you looked at https://weathermodels.com/ ?  Their prices are reasonable for hobbyist and even commercial users.  There are just as many models and maybe even more than what WXBell offers.

I am cancelling my WXBell subscription and restarting the WX Models one.

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2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Have you looked at https://weathermodels.com/ ?  Their prices are reasonable for hobbyist and even commercial users.  There are just as many models and maybe even more than what WXBell offers.

I am cancelling my WXBell subscription and restarting the WX Models one.

thanks I'll check it out

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On 3/1/2020 at 1:19 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

I like to see people try to forecast winter, but the skill just isn't there.  You may as well flip a coin, but err on the warm side.

NOAA has it right. Just copy and paste AN temps and BN to EC for snowfall. 8/10 years it will be right.

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Well it appears for most of us, winter is over. Talk to most of you all 8 months barring a bad severe outbreak. Sad winter is was so incredibly horrible. Next winter is ours. 50" winter coming. 

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On 3/3/2020 at 6:14 AM, Cary67 said:

NOAA has it right. Just copy and paste AN temps and BN to EC for snowfall. 8/10 years it will be right.

Not true. 6 of the past 10 winters here had above avg snowfall, and 4 out of 10 were colder than normal.  The bottom line is long range forecasting is very difficult and with social media all over the place jumping on extreme model runs, there needs to be much much much more caution thrown to the general public when the seasonal forecasts are issued.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not true. 6 of the past 10 winters here had above avg snowfall, and 4 out of 10 were colder than normal.  The bottom line is long range forecasting is very difficult and with social media all over the place jumping on extreme model runs, there needs to be much much much more caution thrown to the general public when the seasonal forecasts are issued.

It is true that the NOAA predominantly puts out winter forecasts for the conus that are mostly AN. That may not verify but I can understand why they do. I would say your AN or near normal snowfall this year was more a matter of luck. Not that ORD hasnt had a run of AN snowfalls the last 10 years. Will see but I think it will become increasingly difficult for the pattern to line up for persistent cold rather then persistent warm. I also think you are going to keep hearing more often in subsequent winters,"If only we had some cold air to work with this system would have been great." 

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12 hours ago, Cary67 said:

It is true that the NOAA predominantly puts out winter forecasts for the conus that are mostly AN. That may not verify but I can understand why they do. I would say your AN or near normal snowfall this year was more a matter of luck. Not that ORD hasnt had a run of AN snowfalls the last 10 years. Will see but I think it will become increasingly difficult for the pattern to line up for persistent cold rather then persistent warm. I also think you are going to keep hearing more often in subsequent winters,"If only we had some cold air to work with this system would have been great." 

Only time will tell. Try not to get too jaded about this unusually winter-less winter for the eastern half of the conus. I dont think the annoyances of suppression or cold and dry will exactly be going away anytime soon anymore than "I wish we had more cold air to work with".

 

FYI, I used 2010-11 thu 2019-20 for my "4 of the past 10 winters were colder than avg" but what interesting, if you count the "cold season" of NDJFM, it was an even 5 colder and 5 milder. Even more interesting....in the 10 yr period 2008-09 thru 2017-18, we actually had 6 of the 10 DJF's COLDER than avg here and 7 of the 10 snowier than avg!

 

I used 2009-10 thru 2018-19 for "6 of the past 10 winters were snowier than avg", didnt count this snow season as it is not over. Regardless of what the pattern shows, we have another month and a half before we are out of the woods for measurable snow (and more than that in rare cases). At 36.6", DTW is 0.6" above avg today, but will fall below in a few days. If 5.9"+ doesnt fall before the end of the season, this will still have been a below avg snow season, though certainly not by much.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Only time will tell. Try not to get too jaded about this unusually winter-less winter for the eastern half of the conus. I dont think the annoyances of suppression or cold and dry will exactly be going away anytime soon anymore than "I wish we had more cold air to work with".

 

FYI, I used 2010-11 thu 2019-20 for my "4 of the past 10 winters were colder than avg" but what interesting, if you count the "cold season" of NDJFM, it was an even 5 colder and 5 milder. Even more interesting....in the 10 yr period 2008-09 thru 2017-18, we actually had 6 of the 10 DJF's COLDER than avg here and 7 of the 10 snowier than avg!

 

I used 2009-10 thru 2018-19 for "6 of the past 10 winters were snowier than avg", didnt count this snow season as it is not over. Regardless of what the pattern shows, we have another month and a half before we are out of the woods for measurable snow (and more than that in rare cases). At 36.6", DTW is 0.6" above avg today, but will fall below in a few days. If 5.9"+ doesnt fall before the end of the season, this will still have been a below avg snow season, though certainly not by much.

Thx, that is interesting. Wonder if ORD has seen 5/10 recent winters below normal temps also. I am sure by next winter my gullible this will be a great snow season attitude will resurface.lol

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On 3/8/2020 at 10:28 AM, Cary67 said:

Thx, that is interesting. Wonder if ORD has seen 5/10 recent winters below normal temps also. I am sure by next winter my gullible this will be a great snow season attitude will resurface.lol

Without looking up the exact numbers, I would imagine so 

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On 3/9/2020 at 5:00 PM, Angrysummons said:

How good is the reanalysis data back from 1851-1947?? It shows the January 1st 1864 storm............not so impressive.

I heard radar was down for that storm. Can prolly toss that one..

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6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Absolute snow globe of snowballs right now! Figures!!!!

Right?!!!  Us folks down here in the snow desert should change St. Pattys day to 12/25 and make Xmas in March lol.

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22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Right?!!!  Us folks down here in the snow desert should change St. Pattys day to 12/25 and make Xmas in March lol.

There may be enough on the ground for the kids to go sledding!! Crazy! 

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3 inches on the board and still coming down.  Will it keep coming or turn to crap?  It's half time, we'll see how the last 2 quarters go.  This is ALMOST as good as tournament ball, well at least it's something lol. 

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I don't know what's more surreal, no toilet paper in any stores in Columbus, or that it's actually snowing.

Seriously,  if you want to get depressed, go to a grocery store.  People walking around in a fog, no ground beef, no chicken breasts, no tp, and sections of empty shelves.   WTF

 

 

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't know what's more surreal, no toilet paper in any stores in Columbus, or that it's actually snowing.

Seriously,  if you want to get depressed, go to a grocery store.  People walking around in a fog, no ground beef, no chicken breasts, no tp, and sections of empty shelves.   WTF

 

 

Luckily got TP last weekend. Then my wife ventured out this morning to our GE & got pretty lucky. Got chicken, pork, milk, bread & eggs. There was no ground beef though. She also said they were literally stocking shelves continuously so things that she passed when she got there that were empty, were already stocked on her way out.

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Tornado Warning for the west side of Cincy!  https://www.weather.gov/iln/

Well that was at 9:16, 5 mins later weakened:

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

KYC015-OHC061-200131-
/O.EXP.KILN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200320T0130Z/
Boone KY-Hamilton OH-
921 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

Please report previous tornadoes, wind damage or hail to the National
Weather Service by going to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submitting your report via social media.

LAT...LON 3908 8486 3910 8483 3911 8482 3913 8482
      3924 8469 3912 8456 3901 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 231DEG 37KT 3912 8475

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Yikes!  I knew we got a ton of rain, but that's intense.  Does it inconvenience you much?  It's just off 725.  Neighbors...

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22 hours ago, dayton1996 said:

Yikes!  I knew we got a ton of rain, but that's intense.  Does it inconvenience you much?  It's just off 725.  Neighbors...

I live in Sugarcreek Township so its not a road I normally take, but a buddy of mine lives on Fowler Dr a couple blocks away to the north, so it definitely has rerouted his runs to the south.  City of Bellbrook is going to fix it as soon as they can, but will not see any state/federal relief until like July?

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5 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

Nast rotation supercells rolled thru overnight tearing up northern Greene and southern Clark counties, blew street signs & trees down just north of Yellowsprings and a massive hail storm as well:  https://www.whio.com/news/photos-severe/XAV3ZSAHTZAGDACDAMKPIMGW3Q/ 

Amazingly it all traveled WNW to ESE.....and we in Bellbrook received only a few drops of rain. What a cut-off. Keeping an eye on the storms in Illinois and Iowa. Reports of softball size hail there. That will do some serious damage. Also moving in the same trajectory as last night...but positioned further south.

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