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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Guessing you're not a giant fan :axe:

Dolphins. long story. 
 

my most important game was yesterday’s LSU-ALABAMA game. 

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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I thought we were all just having fun but you get high (I’m guessing) and really erratic on here sometimes. Relax man. No one is getting blocked.  

It havent even been looking at the models yet, just what Ive been seeing on here so I had no opinion as far as this event was concerned. I dont even want snow yet, but I understand cuz, we're all good!

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2 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Dolphins. long story. 
 

my most important game was yesterday’s LSU-ALABAMA game. 

Roll Turds Roll. ;)

Go Bucks!

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How’s this for funny? Last week I purchased an Ariens Snow blower. Delivery set for Tuesday. I’m thinking I’m gonna rent a Uhaul trailer tomorrow and pick it up. 
I used to love shoveling but the old back had other plans. Hate to miss the opportunity to blow 5-10 to break it in. 
Anyone know the standard size ball for a hitch? I had one for my old Saab but left it in the trunk when I gave her away. Stupid. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

How’s this for funny? Last week I purchased an Ariens Snow blower. Delivery set for Tuesday. I’m thinking I’m gonna rent a Uhaul trailer tomorrow and pick it up. 
I used to love shoveling but the old back had other plans. Hate to miss the opportunity to blow 5-10 to break it in. 
Anyone know the standard size ball for a hitch? I had one for my old Saab but left it in the trunk when I gave her away. Stupid. 

Home Depot pickup FTW. Same price as the trailer with less hassle. 

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I was gonna mention this but I didn't wanna get yelled at, lol!

The airmass is not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake
enhancement through most of this event, with the favorable dendritic
crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will
change for a few hours right at the tail end of the event, after
about 06Z Tuesday. This may add another inch or two of snow along
the south shore of Lake Ontario from Monroe County eastward to Wayne
County.

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1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Flake size is definitely going to be an issue which usually is around these parts during synoptic snowfalls and this one looks no different, lol!

Yeah, with the 700 temps being just cold enough, they will be smaller, crystally flakes. 
I was a little surprised to see Buf discount enhancements as every model is picking up on it. I think we will see more than an inch or two of enhancement. Agree it will be second half. 

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GFS keying in on a ENE wind flow off Ontario right into Monroe County so I can easily see KROC jack-potting, but the Lake Enhancement wont be as prolific as we once thought, but we'll see!


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ENE flow warming KROC to 33, lol, with S++.  Its gonna feel like a Coastal event with wet pasty stuff falling through most of Monday but if it can change over before daylight then I think we'll be in great shape!

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The minimum in parts of central Oswego county is due to the tug squeezing out extra moisture (higher elevation) and the lake enhancement to the SE of Ontario, so u get a minimum in between lol 6"+ I'm a happy man..

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This is a great looking H700!  Giant swath of moisture stretching all the way into the upper midwest and as the Trough deepens I expect that swath to just pivot right over us! As we get closer the models seem to be picking up on something significant cause totals have gone up quite a bit. No warnings yet until after the 00Z runs for sure!



700mb_sf.gif

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This is gonna be one of those nail biters where I watch the Thermometer like a sicko and with every .1 drop I  get angrier and angrier cause I know theres a sneaky warm layer somewhere, lol!

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I’m driving back from a bills party in Buffalo and rain is picking up nicely as this storm literally takes shape directly overhead. Pretty cool.  Temp is 42 and has been dropping on the drive (wife is driving. I got into the blue lights nicely with that dismal performance by the bills). 

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I know its only one frame but as an example, this is a ugly sounding if you want nice size flakes.  Look at the dry push up at H500-H700 and thats where the snow growth parameters are greatest and the Dp drops significantly as well, but like I said its really high up there so it probably wont matter for us anyway but if it was closer, thats not what you'd wanna see.

gfs_2019111018_030_43.25--76.25.png

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