Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Ukie is a Wow! event for CNY. 0Z GEM ticked NW with precip shield also. Hope this is all still looking like this in 24 hrs. I kind of dont want to look at 12Z runs tomorrow as it can only get worse. No way I'm spending time with the off hour runs. Too much noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Could see some 20+ lolli's somewhere in the BGM-Utica-ALB triangle... likely the northern catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Big jumps NW today. Pretty crazy stuff. And we’re still in that window where the big ones keep stepping NW until finally correcting SE in the final 24 hrs. Im holding tight to the idea that this is an I-81 and East storm, but at some point ya gotta realize your boat is full of holes and jump ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The storm is still near NYC at 72 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 That's 1.5 inch precip for roc and like 2 and a quarter for syr. Thats I good hit. Wish we had snow maps for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The storm is still near NYC at 72 lol Does that seem credible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 GFS takes 20 hrs to go from CNJ coast to BOS. IDK. Seems crazy but on a few models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 hours ago, tim123 said: Uncle gets foot back to rochester. This was uk from noon run. Goes to 126 on this. Must be a pay site 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just about every panel on that run jackpots CNY. If this turns out to be significantly wrong it would give me pause in thinking ensembles are significantly more informative than just looking at an op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like 18z. Nice westward bump compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 hours ago, tim123 said: Be interesting if eps has bumped up mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 We could do decent with the initial push on Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Slowly ticking farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro started out pretty far west but started to drift out in the Atlantic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 More so precip shield. Ull pulling moisture from atlantic low back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gets a foot back to rochester area. Ukmet. From new England board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Eps means wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 SYR SREF AVE 12.5”. 4 members above 20” Roc 6”. Top member 15” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 BUF AFD - Also kept advisory headlines, but did break out Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties since precipitation will start later here and will be primarily snow. It`s also possible this advisory may need to be extended depending on the Monday portion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 For all the abuse the NAM takes, it has seemed to always be a great thing to see when lead times shorten, but qpf increases dramatically as the event approaches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gefs been all over this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs been all over this one. That right there is a classic snowfall distribution for many/most Northeast snowstorms from my past experience. The coastal I-95 plain gets little to nothing and heaviest snows bury the deep interior, not places like Hartford or White Plains. Let's hope a reversion to mean starts to occur going forward. I noticed JB still trying to claim Euro ens support for his 3-6" forecast for NYC, (which was made weeks/months ago of course). He'd be correct if he is including Orange & Rockland counties in his broad brush city forecast, which helps to create a fog of verification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 KBGMs snowmaps continuing to be quite conservative. Of course, their forecast was smoked during the season's first storm so I can't say I blame them. Basically they have 4-8" for Syracuse area with only a 10% probability of higher. (BTW, lose the probability maps, or at least the 10 & 90% values...its bullsh*t handwaving, and statistical junk science, to put a probability value on such forecasts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6z euro has 8"-10 back to Rochester 12" line gets to about me and freak 15" line to about Syracuse.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z euro has 8"-10 back to Rochester 12" line gets to about me and freak 15" line to about Syracuse.. Member when we were told we were tracking fantasy snow and this one is over? i member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Storm Vista does include sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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