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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

I'm pretty optimistic about the next 10 days man! Thanks for your input, as always.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Absolutely! This is way better than tracking record highs this time of the year. 

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Man, sunday night and monday morning is getting a little sneaky. Canadian and GFS are very close it seems like. I am hoping for a surprise in the mountains in Gatlinburg this weekend. We will be leaving Monday around lunch. 

 

9 of 20 members from the GEFS have 1 inch of snowfall in Knoxville, so maybe they are sniffing something out. EPS will be interesting at 12z

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Yeah the Euro and EPS is not pretty at all for this weekend. Latest NAM seems like it has some more NW flow action, but it is only out to 63 hours...

Hoping that the higher resolution models will look more encouraging.

The RGEM looks decent.

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13 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Give it 12 hours it will change again....

It keeps changing from non snowy to non snowy solution generally

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It keeps changing from non snowy to non snowy solution generally

Its had a few snowy solutions that have been wrong. Checkout the changes at 500mb on the last few runs at day 5.

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11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its had a few snowy solutions that have been wrong. Checkout the changes at 500mb on the last few runs at day 5.

Yea it looks like we are about to enter a more volatile than normal pattern with lots of energy around and the models are having trouble latching onto storm placement, and which pieces of energy get going. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Yea it looks like we are about to enter a more volatile than normal pattern with lots of energy around and the models are having trouble latching onto storm placement, and which pieces of energy get going. 

Yeah, Lots of energy dropping in from the Pacific. The good news is they might all pass south of us. Hopefully we are just cold enough for some paste bombs!

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Keeps getting less and less each run since yesterday afternoon
281441865_sn10_acc.us_ma(2).thumb.png.80fd24d4464ae84d79315ada0b46295f.png


Focus on these snowfall maps, not the OP. Best looking EPS I have seen since sometime last year.

33af6d09694f099a196ad2c9cec11dd6.jpg


.
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Gonna disregard the weekends little flurry action on Sunday completely unless something changes. I'm more intrigued on monday and the end of next week. As of now, it looks like the best chance we've had so far at something nice. So let's see.

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I’m beginning to become intrigued by the Monday system. The models have been trending fairly good for us. I know it’s the 84hr Nam but it would probably be a 2-4 inch event for the southern and central mountains. It’ll be interesting to see what the models look like by tomorrow evening.

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25 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

I’m beginning to become intrigued by the Monday system. The models have been trending fairly good for us. I know it’s the 84hr Nam but it would probably be a 2-4 inch event for the southern and central mountains. It’ll be interesting to see what the models look like by tomorrow evening.

Tonight’s NAM and RGEM got me pretty excited as well. 

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Just now, SnoJoe said:

We have a Wind Advisory, a Special Weather Statement, a Hazardous Weather Outlook, and a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. I think they're as bored as we are. 

 

 

 

They're making sure everything works for the Fab Feb we're about to have lol.

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15 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Give it 12 hours it will change again....

Wow was you right, I don’t have any access to maps but there’s some in the mid to long range forum. Hint hint it’s a blizzard.

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1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said:

Wow was you right, I don’t have any access to maps but there’s some in the mid to long range forum. Hint hint it’s a blizzard.

Almost a perfectly timed phase for us. Unfortunately it probably just gave us our best solution.  5 hours from now it will change.  Hopefully not.

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prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Upper atmosphere is completely different, and surface is completely different. If it was even remotely similar I would give more stock to the latest 0z Euro. Today's 12z will probably be horrendous compared to the 0z, but even if it's closer than yesterdays 12z run is to the latest 0z, I'll consider it a win. (top pic is yesterdays 12z, bottom is this mornings 0z)

 

Edit: Reason I bring this particular part up, is were roughly 9 days away or so, although surface features are expected to be different, upper air features should start to somewhat sync up, which hasn't happened yet on the Euro.

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Temp profiles for this Monday are not what they need to be according to the GFS, but the moisture is there on the Nam and GFS for a couple of inches if it verifies.

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Phased too soon. Give it 6 hours it will change.  Its 8-9 days away 

 

Yeah this one will be tricky, but as of now I like model trends. Will be interesting to see if the Euro shows some consistency in the long range but that’s a crap shoot. 0z euro shows a little bit of snow shower activity on Monday am as well, similar to what other models have been advertising. I think we have 3 chances to see snowflakes over the next 10 days.

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