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Chicago Storm

Mid-July Heat Wave

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Thought this was funny from KIND discussion....

Believe the models (and thus the NBM) are overdoing the dewpoints a
bit (looking at you GFS with your 80-85 dewpoints), as they often do
this time of year. Corn crops are also behind, which would limit
dewpoints some as well. However, mid 70s dewpoints are reasonable,
so will lower the initialization to these values.

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The MCS moving through this morning will definitely make for interesting temp watching today.

An example of how fast things can rebound...After storms mid-afternoon yesterday, the temp jumped from 78 to 88 at ORD.


.

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On 7/17/2019 at 12:21 PM, Hoosier said:

First of all, you can't get the same level of crazy anomalies in summer like you can in winter.  Just not possible.  But even after accounting for that, the arctic outbreak was more impressive for the most part.  We can look at return rate, and the return rate for that would be longer than the return rate for the upcoming heat wave.  

 That's very true and I suppose citing the temperature anomaly was not the best way to compare. Regardless, it's still not close. Take, say, of the 20 largest cities in the Midwest, look at their minimum temperature for the cold snap and see how many times each of those cities had a colder temp, then do the same thing for the maximum temp in this heat wave, and see how many times they had greater temperatures.  

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The MCS moving through this morning will definitely make for interesting temp watching today.

An example of how fast things can rebound...After storms mid-afternoon yesterday, the temp jumped from 78 to 88 at ORD.


.

Time to see how big the rally is. 

ORD should make the mid-upper 80s I think.  Not sure about anything warmer than that though.  

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Besides the marginal thermal profiles aloft, here's another reason to be skeptical of ORD hitting 100 tomorrow:  there has been over an inch of rain today.  

I went back and looked at the previous 100 degree days, and none of them had so much rain the day before.  Zero.  The most rain on a day before hitting 100 was 0.28" on 7/5/2012, and then it hit 103 on 7/6/2012.  Would point out one close call happened in 1988... there was 1.52" on 7/30/1988 and then it reached 100 two days later.  

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Time to see how big the rally is. 

ORD should make the mid-upper 80s I think.  Not sure about anything warmer than that though.  

Indeed.

Clearing rapidly occurred between 12-1PM, with temps starting to rebound...Up around 80 now.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Indeed.

Clearing rapidly occurred between 12-1PM, with temps starting to rebound...Up around 80 now.

The recovery is off to a good start, at least better than I thought.  Winds have flipped southerly and a little gusty.  If it can get into the mid 80s around 3 pm, then perhaps 90 could be in reach.  

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The recovery is off to a good start, at least better than I thought.  Winds have flipped southerly and a little gusty.  If it can get into the mid 80s around 3 pm, then perhaps 90 could be in reach.  

Went from 75 to 81 last hour.

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Higher end DP's and HI's starting to pop up across IL/IA...

ALN 91/81/111

PPQ 90/80/109

TVK 91/81/111

BNW 90/81/108

AXA 90/81/108

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Higher end DP's and HI's starting to pop up across IL/IA...

ALN 91/81/111

PPQ 90/80/109

TVK 91/81/111

BNW 90/81/108

AXA 90/81/108

The list of 80/81 DP's is growing now...too many to post.

JOT has the highest DP, with 88/82/107

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The recovery is off to a good start, at least better than I thought.  Winds have flipped southerly and a little gusty.  If it can get into the mid 80s around 3 pm, then perhaps 90 could be in reach.  

 

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Went from 75 to 81 last hour.

86 as of 5PM.

Pretty clear we'll fall short. There's likely a lower inversion in place across NE. IL in the wake of the MCS, and the main rapidly retreating OFB won't move through soon enough.

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The list is growing now with 80/81 DP's...too many to post.
JOT has the highest DP, with 88/82/107
I buy upper 70s but not sure about low 80s dew point there right now and 80 at Morris. Surrounding sites have 77-78 dew points.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

86 as of 5PM.

Pretty clear we'll fall short. There's likely a lower inversion in place across NE. IL in the wake of the MCS, and the main rapidly retreating OFB won't move through soon enough.

So I guess the next question is will the high only being in the 80s cost a chance of putting up an 80 degree low.  It won't have all that far to drop but 925 mb temps are progged to stay up around 80F through the night.  Along with some wind remaining and the urban environment, it should still be close imo... barring some new convective outflow rolling through.  

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So I guess the next question is will the high only being in the 80s cost a chance of putting up an 80 degree low.  It won't have all that far to drop but 925 mb temps are progged to stay up around 80F through the night.  Along with some wind remaining and the urban environment, it should still be close imo... barring some new convective outflow rolling through.  

I'd be fairly surprised if the low doesn't fall below 80.

As you mentioned, winds staying up a bit to keep things mixed and the warmer 925mb temps will help, but I think the much lower starting point will hurt a good bit.

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91/78/106 here at the moment.  Temp made it to 92 earlier for the high, MLI hit 93.

Point for tomorrow has been dropped back to 96 at MLI.  Looks like 100 is a bit questionable, which is a bit unfortunate lol.  One positive is the area has stayed mostly dry for the last few weeks, so maybe that may help a bit.  MLI has already hit 96 this season, so hopefully they will beat that.  

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On 7/17/2019 at 8:11 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Gonna go with 92/97/99/92 Wed-Sat for ORD.


.

Forgot to revise today, but still would have been wrong thinking 90+ post MCS.

Gonna revise to 95 for Fri/Sat.

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feeling lucky with 81/69/88 here near PTK, helped out with some brief heavy rain earlier

can't imagine it getting below 75° tonight though

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

91/78/106 here at the moment.  Temp made it to 92 earlier for the high, MLI hit 93.

Point for tomorrow has been dropped back to 96 at MLI.  Looks like 100 is a bit questionable, which is a bit unfortunate lol.  One positive is the area has stayed mostly dry for the last few weeks, so maybe that may help a bit.  MLI has already hit 96 this season, so hopefully they will beat that.  

I'm thinking 100 is out of the question for anyone at this point, unless along/west of I-35.

Short term guidance, which has been on the hotter side, seems to be over-mixing a bit. Also add in a good chunk of IA/MO/IL has seen at least one MCS producing 1"+ rainfall totals the past few days.

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31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I buy upper 70s but not sure about low 80s dew point there right now and 80 at Morris. Surrounding sites have 77-78 dew points.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I wouldn't discount, given LOT and IGQ are at 79.

Well, might discount the 82 a bit at JOT...but 80 is reasonable.

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92/77 peaked here.  Early cirrus canopy helped   Still 89/76.  Dews forecast to stay 75-78 through out the event here w/temps 95-96 which seems reasonable for this area.  Amazing after 25 some years in the south this is a daily thing and for some reason it's bothered me the last couple years. It's gotta be these cool downs in between (59 for a low on Tuesday).  Where I lived in the south it averaged 95/75/70's-80's dew every day for 4 or 5 months lol. Heck when I spent my teens up here nobody had an air conditioner, don't think I had one ever, even living in the Mojave as a youngster, until I moved to Houston in 82.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Besides the marginal thermal profiles aloft, here's another reason to be skeptical of ORD hitting 100 tomorrow:  there has been over an inch of rain today.  

I went back and looked at the previous 100 degree days, and none of them had so much rain the day before.  Zero.  The most rain on a day before hitting 100 was 0.28" on 7/5/2012, and then it hit 103 on 7/6/2012.  Would point out one close call happened in 1988... there was 1.52" on 7/30/1988 and then it reached 100 two days later.  

We still have some spots with a lot of standing water out in the fields where places got really dumped on a few days ago so that may help keep actual highs down around here.  And they can say what they want about the corn, that Frankencorn that got in right at the end of season is already 4-5 feet tall where its not extremely wet.  Earlier corn already sprouting tassels (hated that teenage slave labor job!) 

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I sense some bust potential for central WI's first 90 degree readings tomorrow.  The scorching 700 mbar temps of 21 °C advect in for only a few hours.  On the upshot this does happen during the heat of the day but all it would take is a well timed cloud deck counter this.  This seemed to happen today in the ARX CWA where their AFD says they fell well short of their high temperature forecast.  In the AM these clouds were predicted to mix out.  My personal thinking is that the sun beating on the very wet ground drives so much moisture to rise that condensation into clouds overwhelms mixing into the EML, supporting the thicker than expected cloud cover (in addition to surface evaporation keeping surface temps down directly).  But that's just speculation.

In any event, we have a statewide cold pool from MCS activity (to be reinforced with another MCS tonight), 0.5" - 4" of rain everywhere over the last 72 h going S and W hundreds of miles, and temps today already falling short both here (high was 80, forecast 86) and upstream thanks to clouds.  Wouldn't surprise me if we 89 this one.

rain_prev72h.thumb.jpg.cfefeec755bac13e53dc8736595ce4be.jpg

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Muggy as all get out.  Still fairly widespread dewpoints in the upper 70s and even some low 80s at midnight central.  

il_sfc.gif.3e8c6f8acb3b0d4c988da63c2686944f.gif

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Temps in Southern Wisconsin May be impacted with this early morning MCS; starting in the low to mid 70s as opposed to the progged upper 70s, as well as some cloud cover most likely may make a difference.

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