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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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Moving into June (at least through the first week of June) should yield some potentially exciting weather (and the term exciting is just referencing the fact that it will not be boring). Moving into the final week of May, there is strong consensus for strong ridging to develop across the southeastern states (which may yield record heat across many areas) and for our region to be on the crest of the ridge. This could yield some potential for increased convective activity, perhaps in the form of ridge rollers in the form of MCS's. We will also have to keep an eye on any plumes of  EML air that could work over the ridge.

Perhaps the more intriguing signal on guidance are the very impressive and unseasonably strong s/w's modeled to swing down into the upper-Midwest and traverse the US/Canadian border...in fact it's almost like a bowling ball of s/w's. With this we will continue to see plenty of convective opportunities and unsettled periods. 

As far as temperatures go you won't really be able to make a specific quantification, we'll have periods (very similar to what we're seeing now, however, with the upward tick in climo the warmer periods will be...warmer) of rather warm (maybe even hot...depending on one's consideration of hot) weather characterized by 80's and even lower 90's in the typical torch spots. The only question is do we add in any humidity with this...maybe slight but we'll deal with that possibility when needed. Our cool periods though may be quite cool...especially NNE. 

I think over the next 2-4 weeks we should have a rather solid idea of how the weather pattern may set-up for much of the summer. Still some spread and uncertainties with this.

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Trough to the left of us, Ridge to our right, here we are

Stuck on the middle with dews

 

 

f240 (1).gif

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5 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

June and dews, pretty normal stuff last few years imo

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I'm interested in a particular climate metric(s) ... namely, global DP and cloud cover. 

I'm suspicious of cloud polluted warm sectors over eastern U.S. ...as well as DP's in middle latitudes all around the hemisphere being above normal since 2000. 

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What a crazy pattern looking to evolve moving through next weekend. As long we have those above-average heights over Greenland with the pocket of below-average heights just south we are going to see some chaotic weather...especially if that degree of ridging builds into the west. I guess nobody will be able to complain about a boring pattern, however, (and this is uncommon given the time of year we're heading towards) forecasting with a high degree of confidence like 4 days out is going to be a challenge. 

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12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

What a crazy pattern looking to evolve moving through next weekend. As long we have those above-average heights over Greenland with the pocket of below-average heights just south we are going to see some chaotic weather not have sustained summer period... Read beyond this sentence if you want but it doesn't matter.  Bend over and feel the pain ..especially if that degree of ridging builds into the west. I guess nobody will be able to complain about a boring pattern, however, (and this is uncommon given the time of year we're heading towards) forecasting with a high degree of confidence like 4 days out is going to be a challenge. 

 

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On 5/24/2019 at 12:06 PM, Dr. Dews said:

Trough to the left of us, Ridge to our right, here we are

Stuck on the middle with dews

 

 

f240 (1).gif

This isn't verifying too well.

f120.gif

 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

This isn't verifying too well.

f120.gif

 

Yeah, glad we didn't rip and read

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I wonder if we'll start to see a complete pattern changer across the northern hemisphere around mid-June or so. All we've been seeing is that blocking around Greenland and just knocking heights down into our region. However (I guess sort of relaying on climo here) moving into these next few weeks as the mid-latitude jet shifts north (which looks to remain fairly strong) it may become more zonal and this could knock away the blocking. 

Next week would have some decent heat potential if it wasn't for that trough...problem is by the time it could probably eject our way it breaks down as a trough digs into the northern Plains. 

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 the gefs forecast flat-lines the nao and pna with little change, and also the euro wasn't particularly exciting.

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 the gefs forecast flat-lines the nao and pna with little change, and also the euro wasn't particularly exciting.
Yeap pretty boring first few days, summer will come, just a matter of time, me thinks towards 3rd week of June..

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Despite the 00z suite's apparently rolling back/reneging on the earlier 12z's suggestion of extended range pattern change, I still believe there could be a shift lurking. It may come and go over the next few days before it gets more coherent.  

Granted ... the teleconnectors are losing their correlative value at this time of year, I still believe there is some "vestigial signal" ( it's like listening for Voyager ) there.  Particularly when there are now occasional operational version model runs that try and fill the persistent lower Maritime trough.  00z Euro, ... 180 reversed the 12z attempt to do so.  Nonetheless, the means is likely in the beginning phases of detecting that change toward normalizing that feature ...

Which it probably should anyway.  The whole -NAO complex we've suffered... it was put in place because the evacuation of the winter pattern put the hemisphere in sort of a lurch prior to the onset of subtropical ridging concomitant with summer.  The AO was like left statically albeit not obviously negative.  The girdle of subtropical ridging features haven't really got going yet ... until they do.. the AO is likely to remain neutral neggie, and these blocking regimes are probability favored above the 55th parallel. There's also a causal "chicken vs egg" thing going on with all that, too...  Lacking subtropical ridges is another way of saying the flow is lacking longitudinal character - this all probably shows up in the GLAAM as an aside.  But which sets off which?  The -AO may in fact be the residue in this equation... where something else is pulling the westerlies south and physics then alone creates the blocks.  I was just reading a paraphrased article from the HZDR ( German research institute) that found a tidal connection between Jupiter, the Earth, and Venus... which occurs every 11.4 years when their resonance constructively interferes...  and this tidally induces magnetic reversals in the top layers of the sun ...  Sound familiar?   11 years is the solar cycle - who knows... Maybe ultimately this is all f'n Jovian .. ha  

That's really all we've been suffering... a -AO spring.  If it looks like a duck. Quacks like duck... it's probably a duck.  And the GEFs AO has in fact been empirically negative since the ides of March... so it's reasonable to be suspicious of that 'cold signal' as culpable in this lower Maritime trough and N wind bias. I'm sure we'll find around the hemisphere, that there are other -AO correlations being expressed.   

I noticed Ray has not posted in a quite some time...  Understandable - ... but, it really is all his fault.  He commiserated that the -NAO would suddenly usurp, and completely butt-violate the spring ... way back in February.  Seeing as that is the best prediction he's ever come up with ... we can only do the righteous thing as torch bearing enraged hill people and pull him out for a proper lynching -

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also...seeing the operational Euro be such an extreme outlier relative to its EPS mean between D6 and especially out toward the end of the run ... yeah, that range is subject to change anyway - of course. But the idea for a warm look by mid month is not conjured in a vacuum... The EPS mean fits my own thinking - which of course means I give that a nod... ha.. But, I suspect the operation run is full of shit.  I think the flow stretches more around the hemisphere - and by that I don't mean long wave lengths.. I mean less deep heights next to tall ridge nodes. And the way that expression from the eastern Pac to south of Greenland will probably not mean a -4 SD super massive black hole S of Nova Scotia on D10 ... 

 

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I agree...I always take it as a sign of a pattern change when you begin to see the models becoming extremely inconsistent and flip-flopping in the long-range...the only caveat is you don't know "when" that could take place. 

To make sure we don't get another 30-page long debate on heat vs coc vs crap...

a pattern changes DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN HEAT. To define pattern change in the context of discussion, this is merely referring to the fact we may see more in the way of consistent weather. Instead of maybe 2-3 nice days then 2-3 crap days probably more like 4-5-6 nice days then a typical front with showers/t'storms then nice.  

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree...I always take it as a sign of a pattern change when you begin to see the models becoming extremely inconsistent and flip-flopping in the long-range...the only caveat is you don't know "when" that could take place. 

To make sure we don't get another 30-page long debate on heat vs coc vs crap...

a pattern changes DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN HEAT. To define pattern change in the context of discussion, this is merely referring to the fact we may see more in the way of consistent weather. Instead of maybe 2-3 nice days then 2-3 crap days probably more like 4-5-6 nice days then a typical front with showers/t'storms then nice.  

it's good to point that out ... I'd add, because we've had a surplus of mank days at some -10 if not -20 F daily max biases ...  whatever in the hell paradigm we shift toward it is reasonable to assume it will be warmer.   

   

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's good to point that out ... I'd add, because we've had a surplus of mank days at some -10 if not -20 F daily max biases ...  whatever in the hell paradigm we shift toward it is reasonable to assume it will be warmer.   

   

We're getting to the point to where even slightly below-average is going to feel "hot" :lol: 

Like when people see 75-80 now they're almost like shocked...even though climo (at least for BDL) is mid-to-upper 70's

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llvl winds are kinda meh but Sunday could be a decent severe wx day...perhaps extending into western fringes of New England 

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Sunday looks poor but maybe we can get a few legit t-storms to enter w or even central MA before being cut down by marine junk

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

We're getting to the point to where even slightly below-average is going to feel "hot" :lol: 

Like when people see 75-80 now they're almost like shocked...even though climo (at least for BDL) is mid-to-upper 70's

I get the humor  but actually ... it really hasn't been that below just the same.  In fact, of the four tabbed climo sites available on TAN's website, two are modestly positive for May ... much to the chagrin of the beleaguered warm season sufferers, I'm sure.  

Perception is everything.   I really still believe it is the fact that since April 15 or so ...we've been at or near historically high cloudy days ... We've actually been that successful ( relative use of the word... heh) in the measurable precipitation to go along with. Tarmac and I were musing last week that despite that, ...we're not even that much above normal rainfall either.  Yep... 20some odd days of delay-wiper counts too... So afternoons are chilly and nights are chilly but, warm compared to average...so the roll-up numbers for the diurnal cycle utterly cheat the sensible justice...   It's just shit weather...like period.  Nothing else. ...For forty-five f'um days too ... save for Mem day weekend ironically.  

I think this spring has been an attack more than anything else.  Specifically targeting those that want nice, melon days ...with deck fair, the smell of lilacs and grills permeating neighborhood air. It's like there's some great metaphysical force that is targeting those souls for assault.  muah hahahaha

Seriously, if we could string a 'nough sunnier afternoons even 74 F for a high, that too would still suffice your humor because even that seems only to be in the dreams of a Cell-block H at San Quintin resident ...to be free of this cold pool.

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the humor  but actually ... it really hasn't been that below just the same.  In fact, of the four tabbed climo sites available on TAN's website, two are modestly positive for May ... much to the chagrin of the beleaguered warm season sufferers, I'm sure.  

Perception is everything.   I really still believe it is the fact that since April 15 or so ...we've been at or near historically high cloudy days ... We've actually been that successful ( relative use of the word... heh) in the measurable precipitation to go along with. Tarmac and I were musing last week that despite that, ...we're not even that much above normal rainfall either.  Yep... 20some odd days of delay-wiper counts too... So afternoons are chilly and nights are chilly but, warm compared to average...so the roll-up numbers for the diurnal cycle utterly cheat the sensible justice...   It's just shit weather...like period.  Nothing else. ...For forty-five f'um days too ... save for Mem day weekend ironically.  

I think this spring has been an attack more than anything else.  Specifically targeting those that want nice, melon days ...with deck fair, the smell of lilacs and grills permeating neighborhood air. It's like there's some great metaphysical force that is targeting those souls for assault.  muah hahahaha

Seriously, if we could string a 'nough sunnier afternoons even 74 F for a high, that too would still suffice your humor because even that seems only to be in the dreams of a Cell-block H at San Quintin resident ...to be free of this cold pool.

I bet if someone were to really dig into numbers and everything this spring is probably quite close to what spring is historically like in New England...certainly the precipitation/clouds are not the norm but the overall general weather. We've gotten so use to crazy warm periods and higher humidity occurring as early as the end of April that we assume that's what the norm is. 

I remember in high school (2002-2006) the last week of May or early June when the temps would warm up to climo (or above) we wouldn't have the humidity...heck I remember a string of years where red flag warnings dominated a brief period. We wouldn't really crank up humidity until July. 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I bet if someone were to really dig into numbers and everything this spring is probably quite close to what spring is historically like in New England...certainly the precipitation/clouds are not the norm but the overall general weather. We've gotten so use to crazy warm periods and higher humidity occurring as early as the end of April that we assume that's what the norm is. 

I remember in high school (2002-2006) the last week of May or early June when the temps would warm up to climo (or above) we wouldn't have the humidity...heck I remember a string of years where red flag warnings dominated a brief period. We wouldn't really crank up humidity until July. 

 

 

mmm... yes and no on the bold.   At least not for me ..

It's anecdotal but the last four consecutive springs have been like forced tongue f'ing satan's cold rectal plaque to me.   Clear 'till Junes.  You'd think that'd correct any expectations ... 

We've definitely had some freak warmth in February, and back to back in Aprils in there... But, those were not the tempos of the season's they were couched in... Those seasons were horrible.  Personal druthers and complete exposure ... I hate snow storms in March?  Last year was a donkey-balls tea-bagging that lasted until mid April at that, with countless baseball games in the 30s at the MLB level?  

Nah, dude... I realize we're just trying to engage in commiserative conjecture here but I don't believe your characterization of 'recent springs' is really true.  Those big winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in the midwest then here, were both taunted with early warmth that faded back into vomit springs.   Actually... 2015 was pan bad -

I think we gotta go all the way back to 2012 ... and actually 2009 and 2010 were both high hot and hard early ...  But, maybe your sort of "delusion hangover" for warmth really stems from that part of the recent 10 years.   Tru perhaps ...

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm... yes and no on the bold.   At least not for me ..

It's anecdotal but the last four consecutive springs have been like forced tongue f'ing satan's cold rectal plaque to me.   Clear 'till Junes.  You'd think that'd correct any expectations ... 

We've definitely had some freak warmth in February, and back to back in Aprils in there... But, those were not the tempos of the season's they were couched in... Those seasons were horrible.  Personal druthers and complete exposure ... I hate snow storms in March?  Last year was a donkey-balls tea-bagging that lasted until mid April at that, with countless baseball games in the 30s at the MLB level?  

Nah, dude... I realize we're just trying to engage in commiserative conjecture here but I don't believe your characterization of 'recent springs' is really true.  Those big winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in the midwest then here, were both taunted with early warmth that faded back into vomit springs.   Actually... 2015 was pan bad -

I think we gotta go all the way back to 2012 ... and actually 2009 and 2010 were both high hot and hard early ...  But, maybe your sort of "delusion hangover" for warmth really stems from that part of the recent 10 years.   Tru perhaps ...

ehhh I should have put in "with the exception of the last few springs"...they were pretty horrific. In fact, I think last spring was much worse than this year...although we flipped and did a complete 180 like the first week of May...anyways last March and April were beyond horrific. 

All in all though this may be one of the most miserable patterns persisting as long as this in a while...at least since 2009. Who cares if we've had a few days of lovely weather where it got into the 70's or near 80...that's what it should be doing this time of year....those days don't make up with this horrific overall stretch of garbage. 

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Summer's been okay so far.

GEFS definitely more June-like in the LR though it is easy to see the fragility of any extended warm up. Day to day sensible wx is debatable but it is definitely a more seasonable look.

f324.gif

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One thing I think we have to look at too are heights and pressure anomalies in the llvls and sfc. While the 500 look may yield some relief the llvls may still be supportive for plenty of back door potential. Haven't looked at SSTA maps lately, but I would have to think waters off ME quite below-average...or at least below

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing I think we have to look at too are heights and pressure anomalies in the llvls and sfc. While the 500 look may yield some relief the llvls may still be supportive for plenty of back door potential. Haven't looked at SSTA maps lately, but I would have to think waters off ME quite below-average...or at least below

By D10-14 those details are well beyond my scope. I just want to see general agreement of upper features and the spread within. Lol. That's a dreaded rabbit hole to me.

Sort of like folks with the worshipping of those new gen cams and simulated radar, etc. I think one of the doctorates wrote in detail about it.

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