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Bubbler86

Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

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36 minutes ago, canderson said:

Harrisburg should break an all-time high tomorrow, then the weekend will be nice and cool, then starting early next week then ext 10 or so days will all be solidly above average temps. We're not getting a fall this year, except for a few days scattered around. 

The highest temperature I see on the 00z Euro next week is on Monday.  It has mdt reaching 70.  The rest of the week is below that. The gfs is cooler than euro. Not a bad fall week at all.  We should see some rain as well. 

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37 minutes ago, daxx said:

The highest temperature I see on the 00z Euro next week is on Monday.  It has mdt reaching 70.  The rest of the week is below that. The gfs is cooler than euro. Not a bad fall week at all.  We should see some rain as well. 

When I want a quick look at trends without having to scroll through models I look at the Accuweather month long Outlook, which I think is just the GFS in graphic format, and it indeed does advertise that anything resembling Summer weather is done for the year tomorrow.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

When I want a quick look at trends without having to scroll through models I look at the Accuweather month long Outlook, which I think is just the GFS in graphic format, and nit indeed does advertise that anything resembling Summer weather is done for the year tomorrow.

 

 

We will see some warm days but persistent warmth is looking less and less likely.  After tomorrow's heat I think most of us on here will be happy. 

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4 hours ago, daxx said:

The highest temperature I see on the 00z Euro next week is on Monday.  It has mdt reaching 70.  The rest of the week is below that. The gfs is cooler than euro. Not a bad fall week at all.  We should see some rain as well. 

Huh, CTP tweeted it'd be above normal following the weekend for the next 10-14 days. 

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28 minutes ago, canderson said:

Huh, CTP tweeted it'd be above normal following the weekend for the next 10-14 days. 

I just looked at the 12Z Euro on an El-Cheapo model site, for this time next week, and temps in the 40's (actually low 50's, my mistake) mid afternoon.

Edit-Here is what happens to Summer after tomorrow:

image.png.50c2748e0e45b444ea913688c64e90a6.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just looked at the 12Z Euro on an El-Cheapo model site, for this time next week, and temps in the 40's mid afternoon.

 

 

It also drops between two and three inches of rain over most of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. 

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

It also drops between two and three inches of rain over most of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. 

I did not look at precip but the waterways over here really need it so very welcome. That would be a raw Tuesday!

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm ready! I cannot believe how much warm it's gotten since I left for work this morning. This sucks. One more day...

Could not agree more!   It is really going to feel great.

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm ready! I cannot believe how much warm it's gotten since I left for work this morning. This sucks. One more day...

The Wundermap is showing several city reporting stations in the 90's right now.  7-10 degrees higher than forecast. 

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6 hours ago, canderson said:

Huh, CTP tweeted it'd be above normal following the weekend for the next 10-14 days. 

they are just practicing for the upcoming winter when they will poo poo any cold/snow that comes along.....

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6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just looked at the 12Z Euro on an El-Cheapo model site, for this time next week, and temps in the 40's (actually low 50's, my mistake) mid afternoon.

Edit-Here is what happens to Summer after tomorrow:

image.png.50c2748e0e45b444ea913688c64e90a6.png

 

Per GEFS, only concern i have is that upper levels have warmed at 500 from a few days ago, and surface doesnt quite match up to me, so one of them is going to bust.  I'll root on the 850's over the 500's for the win, but logic says that 500's may be closer to right, and if so, i hate to say it, but CTP could be onto something.  Regardless, verbatim the warming looks normalish for Oct., so its still better than this crap.

 

 

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9 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Per GEFS, only concern i have is that upper levels have warmed at 500 from a few days ago, and surface doesnt quite match up to me, so one of them is going to bust.  I'll root on the 850's over the 500's for the win, but logic says that 500's may be closer to right, and if so, i hate to say it, but CTP could be onto something.  Regardless, verbatim the warming looks normalish for Oct., so its still better than this crap.

 

 

As long as it stays below 75 then I count that as Summer over! :-)

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

as much as i enjoy summer, heat, cold drink and the pool, i''m ready for this shit to get the flock outta here. High 65 on Friday, low 43? i'm in, all in!

Got up to 87 yesterday and I'm figuring today we'll add a few degrees on to that. This can't end soon enough brother. 

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10 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Per GEFS, only concern i have is that upper levels have warmed at 500 from a few days ago, and surface doesnt quite match up to me, so one of them is going to bust.  I'll root on the 850's over the 500's for the win, but logic says that 500's may be closer to right, and if so, i hate to say it, but CTP could be onto something.  Regardless, verbatim the warming looks normalish for Oct., so its still better than this crap.

 

 

One thing I've noticed for many years and I think it's more than just me being a weenie - regardless of the season, cool downs almost always seem to be muted as the days approach until the cool air arrives. That honestly never seems to happen when it comes to heat. Why is that? 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing I've noticed for many years and I think it's more than just me being a weenie - regardless of the season, cool downs almost always seem to be muted as the days approach until the cool air arrives. That honestly never seems to happen when it comes to heat. Why is that? 

You are correct and that coupled w/ the warmer looks at 500 are exactly why I'm suspicious, and why my eyebrow was stuck in lift postion.  When parsing over, I saw the 850 anomalies vs 500's is just didnt seem to fit.  Too early for the cold to hold IMO.  LIke i said, it doesnt scream torch, but it doesnt scream frosty pumpkins either.  I'm  ok with what is currently depicted as you stated, anything below 75 is tolerable...for now.

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Since the official start of fall I've been hanging onto my will to live based upon the 300 hr + forecasts showing the cool down.  Have to say, the GFS really nailed the timing of this relief.  Consistently showing the front moving down in the 10/3-10/4 time-frame, vanquishing the hell fire. Mid-range forecasting (temp-wise) has come a long way in a relatively short amount of time.  Really going to appreciate October feeling like October tomorrow through the weekend.  Cheers all!

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

You are correct and that coupled w/ the warmer looks at 500 are exactly why I'm suspicious, and why my eyebrow was stuck in lift postion.  When parsing over, I saw the 850 anomalies vs 500's is just didnt seem to fit.  Too early for the cold to hold IMO.  LIke i said, it doesnt scream torch, but it doesnt scream frosty pumpkins either.  I'm  ok with what is currently depicted as you stated, anything below 75 is tolerable...for now.

If anyone one on here is thinking frost and cold to settle in, then they are in for a huge letdown. If your expecting more typical fall weather then you should be happy.  Reds and oranges at 500 does not always indicate heat. Surface temps can be quite different. Which you have already explained. 

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23 minutes ago, daxx said:

If anyone one on here is thinking frost and cold to settle in, then they are in for a huge letdown. If your expecting more typical fall weather then you should be happy.  Reds and oranges at 500 does not always indicate heat. Surface temps can be quite different. Which you have already explained. 

here is an example of what doesnt jive to me.

2m

gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

 

vs flow at 500.  Look at wind direction below and verbatim, id think the surface would not be as cold as depicted.  Wind out of SW will quickly scour out antecedent cold.  I posted prior 6hr panel below for covo's sake.  Pattern goes back and forth, so as stated, all normal and good IMO.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png

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13 hours ago, Newman said:

Getting to be that time of year where we look at the source region. Ridge in SE Canada will funnel down the Northeast flow.

Thats why i posted the wind map.  Already SW 6 hrs prior to the 850 map.  Cold just aint gonna hold if 500 is right.  But yeah sneaky cold is definitely getting close enough for sure.

Here is this AM's run of same timeframe.  I included surface winds.  No NE reflection being shown.  

This is all for fun....and i'm not beating any drums.....cause its nowhere near showtime for me/us.  I was just pointing out the "cold" shot might just be a "cool" shot.  Its just typical swings of autumn to me.  Fun to see cold around again though.  Sets the mood right :).  Have a good day gang.

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_us_34.png

 

 

 

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