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Solak

2019 Tropical Weather Discussion

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

sfcmslp.conus.thumb.png.21df9ceed0022bb989f62fe63885524f.png

Euro is starting to show Dorian as a stronger system and making it into the Gulf...

Yeah RAH states that high to the NE is going to be key to how it eventually affects us. The (potentially) stalled front could act as a focal point for moisture streaming in from the SW. But where, when, and actually how are still up in the air.  

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GFS has been running a landfall on the east coast every 2-3 runs the rest are OTS, some closer than others....by the end of this week the GFS and other models will have ran so many run's with so many slightly different track that one of them will end up right....IF this thing dodges the first weakness and gets to the SW Atl the chances of it getting close are pretty high....heck the models develop several waves on different runs we might end up with 2-3 storms at once....

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2 years ago Irma made landfall twice in FL.

Was a rough storm for sure around here.

70-85 winds/gust. About a foot of rain. 

Was a miserable 8 days before the power came back on.

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3 hours ago, FLweather said:

2 years ago Irma made landfall twice in FL.

Was a rough storm for sure around here.

70-85 winds/gust. About a foot of rain. 

Was a miserable 8 days before the power came back on.

12 GFS still has the storm ~ Puerto Rico at day 7. Afterwards it shows it trying to recurve out to sea; but that's out in la la land. So anything is possible at this point.  

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95L could end up being a big rain maker for parts of the SE depending on track...the UKIE/Icon seems to want to go up the east coast of Florida and bring the rain more N the Euro more NW across Florida into AL/GA the GFS is like what storm....

 Euro 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091112_192_5_220.thumb.png.da4085cc962e2ea1246330fe74c2ce10.png

UKIE

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019091112_144_5_220.thumb.png.17317ce19368a19ff6160f7aad526d0d.png

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Big changes to the Euro track it now almost landfalls on Hatteras on its way to NJ......would still easily probably give hurricane conditions to the OBX.....the UKie was faster and got OTS before the blocking high slams the door the Icon and Euro do not...all have a large hurricane off the SE coast by the beginning of next week....

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091200_198_480_149.thumb.png.b791ca93faa5373bc1e73e1be493f49f.png

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RAH AFD

From Sunday Onward:

There is high model spread regarding the evolution of the 
disturbance over the Bahamas and any potential impacts it may or may 
not bring to central NC. Similar to what we saw with Dorian , a 
weakness within the expansive Subtropical ridge in place across the 
SE US is forecast to develop Sunday and into Monday, which should 
eventually steer the system northwestward towards the Florida 
peninsula and SE US coast. This system has the potential to be very 
slow moving/meandering  INVOF the SE US during the middle to late 
part of next week as it encounters the aforementioned blocky upper 
level ridge as it meanders across the eastern US. NC residents are 
advised to monitor the forecast for potential impacts over the next 
several days as the system becomes better organized. 

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RAH AFD
From Sunday Onward:There is high model spread regarding the evolution of the disturbance over the Bahamas and any potential impacts it may or may not bring to central NC. Similar to what we saw with Dorian , a weakness within the expansive Subtropical ridge in place across the SE US is forecast to develop Sunday and into Monday, which should eventually steer the system northwestward towards the Florida peninsula and SE US coast. This system has the potential to be very slow moving/meandering  INVOF the SE US during the middle to late part of next week as it encounters the aforementioned blocky upper level ridge as it meanders across the eastern US. NC residents are advised to monitor the forecast for potential impacts over the next several days as the system becomes better organized. 




It’ll be interesting to see how this thing develops. At the very least it would be nice to get some beneficial tropical rains from it. Although if you read the main tropical forum, lots of people are pulling for a NE or MA landfall... it’s getting kinda crazy over there...


.

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Thought this was pretty cool. Tracking the next system coming off Africa... via Severe Weather Europe

The hurricane season continues, and we are already monitoring new areas of potential development. Models are hinting at quick hurricane development, while the first thunderstorms are deep in Africa. This gives us a unique opportunity to follow hurricane formation live, from first thunderstorms to a major hurricane.  

http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/follow-hurricane-formation-live/

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So this tropical storm Karen is supposed to do a loop, turn west and possibly head our way.  Is this really a thing?

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3 hours ago, jpbart said:

So this tropical storm Karen is supposed to do a loop, turn west and possibly head our way.  Is this really a thing?

If it survives, that is what it looks like.

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