BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 It's summertime next month! Anytime have any advice on managing a pool, this is my first year with one. Looks colder then average to start the week and progressively get warmer the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 Got lucky and busted into the warm sector here early this afternoon. BUF was up to 78 at 4pm. Feels fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Got lucky and busted into the warm sector here early this afternoon. BUF was up to 78 at 4pm. Feels fantastic. Perfect outside! Well except the rain drops already working in. Still can’t get more than a few hour window of decent weather around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Good read.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 Hawaiis weather next week. MON MAY 6 Sunny 81°70° 0% W 11 mph 58% TUE MAY 7 Mostly Sunny 82°72° 0% SW 11 mph 61% WED MAY 8 Mostly Sunny 83°73° 0% SW 10 mph 65% THU MAY 9 Mostly Sunny 85°73° 10% W 10 mph 66% FRI MAY 10 Mostly Sunny 85°73° 10% W 9 mph 64% SAT MAY 11 Mostly Sunny 84°73° 20% WSW 9 mph 66% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 It felt fantastic yesterday leaving work. Read 81 on my car thermometer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hawaiis weather next week. MON MAY 6 Sunny 81°70° 0% W 11 mph 58% TUE MAY 7 Mostly Sunny 82°72° 0% SW 11 mph 61% WED MAY 8 Mostly Sunny 83°73° 0% SW 10 mph 65% THU MAY 9 Mostly Sunny 85°73° 10% W 10 mph 66% FRI MAY 10 Mostly Sunny 85°73° 10% W 9 mph 64% SAT MAY 11 Mostly Sunny 84°73° 20% WSW 9 mph 66% Lucky you!! Here's our forecast next week: Monday - Cloudy with showers. 5 minutes maximum of sunshine. Temperatures between 45 and 59 degrees. Tuesday through Sunday - See Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 3, 2019 Author Share Posted May 3, 2019 17 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Lucky you!! Here's our forecast next week: Monday - Cloudy with showers. 5 minutes maximum of sunshine. Temperatures between 45 and 59 degrees. Tuesday through Sunday - See Monday. I think we start seeing a transition mid month towards more summer type conditions. Canada starts to heat up the last week of the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Good to see, hope it holds up! Persistence of this pattern has been remarkably annoying. Haven’t checked online, but have to think L Ontario water levels could be a problem like we had a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 5 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Good to see, hope it holds up! Persistence of this pattern has been remarkably annoying. Haven’t checked online, but have to think L Ontario water levels could be a problem like we had a couple years ago. Apparently the flooding in Montreal is forecast to crest higher than 2017, which means they outflows off Ontario will have to be less than they were around the same time in 2017. Apparently that's causing a (relatively) rapid rise in Ontario's lake level. And interestingly enough lake Erie is at a record high for the month of May right now. Or at least is above the record high average for May, so there could be some discrepancy there. https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 2 hours ago, southbuffalowx said: Apparently the flooding in Montreal is forecast to crest higher than 2017, which means they outflows off Ontario will have to be less than they were around the same time in 2017. Apparently that's causing a (relatively) rapid rise in Ontario's lake level. And interestingly enough lake Erie is at a record high for the month of May right now. Or at least is above the record high average for May, so there could be some discrepancy there. https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/ https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2019/05/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-lake-ontarios-alarming-water-levels.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 This spring continues to suck beyond my wildest expectations. I stood outside in the drizzle an hour ago, waiting to put the kids on the schoolbus, and we were swarmed by black flies. I looked at the growing grass that I don't stand a chance of mowing before it reaches jungle height because we can't get 2 days of dry weather. And thought that Tucson, even at 95F, sounded pretty damned good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Another overcast rainy morning.. At least a trace of rain 16 out of the last 19 days...Not complaining though lol I enjoy cool rainy conditions compared to hot and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 We’ve had a short respite here in WNY. Sun broke out yesterday afternoon and full sun to start today. Looks short lived though. Bummer you guys out east are still stuck in the gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Finally got a peek of sun today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: We’ve had a short respite here in WNY. Sun broke out yesterday afternoon and full sun to start today. Looks short lived though. Bummer you guys out east are still stuck in the gloom. Yeah, we had a beautiful Sunday, and it’s nice today. But it looks a bit greyer later this week. Fingers crossed that we get the usual arrival of consistently warmer, sunnier weather around the 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 A rather convoluted short term pattern looks set to unfold over the lower Great Lakes from Tuesday night through the end of the work week. The front we can`t seemingly shake will make another return from the south by Wednesday as a warm front. This will first spread clouds and eventually rain northward by late Wednesday into Wednesday night. There remains some uncertainty as to how far northward this front will wander as the GFS/NAM consensus favors it lingering over the Niagara Frontier rather than continuing to surge northward...at least for a while. This results in persistent rain chances with a strongly bifurcated wind field with strong easterlies over Lake Ontario and southerly flow south of the Buffalo area. The first wave runs down the front late Wednesday night into Thursday with the first surge in PWATs. The consensus favors 0.50-1.00 inch of rain with this first slug of moisture without and real push for the front behind it. Thus, its position is relatively similar as yet another wave is set to track down the front Thursday night into Friday as substantially stronger warm advection starts ahead of this second low pressure passage in the short term. PWATs head toward 1.5 inches with this surge of warmer air and modest instability looks present. Thus, rainfall could be a bit more impressive as this second wave passes. Likewise, warm air takes up residence over the area late Thursday into early Friday, so temperatures will quickly run up above normal for a bit. The trailing cold front looks to come ripping through on Friday. A quick turn to westerly flow with this front will bring cooler lake air over the Buffalo metro area, which will knock temperatures down rapidly. However, farther east, with a later frontal arrive, will mean a quite warm Friday before the best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms arrives with the cold front and onset of drier air into the CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Another rainy morning with this approaching cold front, 1/2" liquid so far, on and off moderate rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 The cold front will approach overnight, and a well defined southern stream wave will ripple along it from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes. This baroclinic wave will bring a period of enhanced ascent and moisture transport supported by a 50 knot low level jet. The low level dynamics will combine with a favorable upper level setup to produce a period of deep layer ascent across the eastern Great Lakes for a 4-6 hour period overnight. PWAT rises to around 1.5 inches, which is 2-3 sigma above average for this time of year. The result will be widespread rain, with a few corridors of moderate to heavy rain probable. Enough instability will continue overnight to support a chance of a few embedded thunderstorms, especially given the strong forcing. Total rainfall on average will likely approach an inch across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, with somewhat lower amounts across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Embedded thunderstorms may produce a few local totals of over an inch. The risk of any flooding is low given the fast movement of the system, with expected rainfall amounts likely only resulting in ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Mid-level shortwave energy and the last in a series of surface lows will track past the lower lakes to our west across Lake Huron as it heads into Canada early Friday. Widespread soaking rains will gradually lift ENE and taper off across the forecast area by mid morning. As the surface low tracks further into Canada it will send its corresponding cold front towards and across Western New York. With ample moisture in place (PW values in the neighborhood of 1.25 to 1.50 inches) and a supporting mid-level impulse punching in behind the initial shortwave energy showers will likely become more numerous just ahead and then along the cold front. With that said, the severe weather potential at this point looks very limited across Western New York. However, NAM/GFS SBCAPE values do climb to ~700- 900 J/kg well to our east across the western Finger Lake region and into North Central NY. This is where SPC has placed a marginal risk. Also, it will become fairly breezy, especially down wind of the lakes, with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph. With the passage of the front look for showers to taper off from west to east. With strong cold air advection occuring temperatures will fall off behind the front quickly with temperatures peaking in the low 60s across far Western New York. Look for highs in the upper 60s to even low 70s across the western Finger Lakes into North Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Sunday and Monday the medium range guidance packages remain in pretty good agreement on another mid level trough dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast...with an attendant surface low rippling northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys across the mid-Atlantic states...then to a position off the New England coastline. Such a pattern will likely result in yet another round of rain overspreading our region Sunday and Sunday night...before slowly diminishing Monday and Monday night as the system departs off to our east. With this in mind...have continued the upward trend in PoPs during this portion of the period... with high likelies Sunday/Sunday night gradually dropping back through the chance range Monday and Monday night. Otherwise temps should continue to average out at least a bit below normal...and possibly notably so on Monday should the colder ECMWF solution verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 The good news just keeps coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Yesterday in Stamford, NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Maybe I can catch a stray flurry or two lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 we had flakes in the air yesterday afternoon, but nowhere as much as STamford! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 2 hours ago, dutch said: we had flakes in the air yesterday afternoon, but nowhere as much as STamford! High Peaks of New Hampshire looking at 6-12 tonight into tomorrow. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 44°, light-moderate rain.. Some heavy rain streaming north through Syracuse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Pouring rain here. Big fat juicy snowflakes mixing in. We are at 1650 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, cny rider said: Pouring rain here. Big fat juicy snowflakes mixing in. We are at 1650 feet. Same thing in Delhi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 May = March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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