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Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

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Under 100 hours and all guidance has accumulating snow in the region. Looks like the typical setup we see with a weakish wave passing just S of the area with the fall line being the divider between rain/snow with a fairly sharp cutoff or gradient between the 2.

Weaker solutions are farther S and E with the extension of heavier snows to include I95. Slightly stronger/amped solutions are warmer along I95 with farther N and W areas seeing more snowfall. Discuss the potential here.

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6z FV3 has a weaker wave and ticked farther South/colder thus snowier along I95. General 3-6" there with 6-12" N and W. ICON also ticked slightly S and colder. Snowfall amounts about the same spread but lighter more a 4-8" look. Matches the CMC and UKMET rather well. 

I know there was discussion in the other thread on the Euro but imo it is headed better.  If you compare 0z Thursday (recent) to 0z Wednesday there was a much noticeable shift to a colder and trend S solution. It could be correct as the most marginal/warmest scenario but bottom line is I95 will be close even probably NW thru my area in Central Bucks is marginal. Going to have to smell the rain to get the best thump as they say. Farther NW of KDYL looks jackpot for now with S and E of there to I95 being marginal then mainly rain once S E across the river. 

Still a fair amount of time to go so be aware some sizeable shifts are still very possible over the next 48 hours as the goal posts shrink.

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Biggest red flag and why my confidence is still very low for mby particularly is the dang NAVGEM is really N and W amped with the surface low and rain is well N and W of I95 mostly a central and N PA hit. Yes it is a current outlier but when this model shows a track to the left of other guidance it tends to be sniffing something out 90% of the time. I would be wary of other guidance following suit if the NAVGEM continues this over the next 2 runs or so.

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Latest WXSIM with 6z data (time sensitive - will change with 12z) for NW Chester County PA

Light snow arrives by 230am overnight into Friday AM with up to an inch of snow by 7am - off and on flurries during the day with moderate snow starting up again by 830pm with heavy snow by 1130pm Friday night - snow should taper off by 4am Saturday morning with another 2" - 3" of snow accumulation. We then have a break before light rain arrives on Sunday by 230pm mixing with and changing to heavy snow at times on Sunday night - ending by 2am Monday morning with another 4" to 6" of snow accumulation.

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Extended NAM 12k is setting up for a SECS/MECS pretty much inline with other guidance. No major changes still looks like fall line / I95 will be the general boundary between mostly snow and mostly rain give or take. Next 48 hours again could feature a sudden jump in either direction....this would not shock me at all. Best potential since November for a good chunk of SE PA and under 84 hours now. The unicorn which is on life support is gasping for a few more breaths anyway.

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I must admit, next weeks weather pattern puts the Lehigh Valley in the bullseye of the accumulating snow events  for next week in this morning runs. With the CMC saying  12"+, the FV-3 GFS saying 22", The Icon saying 7", the GFS saying 9"+ the ukie saying 12" + , I say we are going to get some snow this time in the LV, its a matter of which model to believe. If I am betting man, I hang my hats on the CMC and GFS averaged and rely on the NAM 48 hours out. The Euro has just sucked in this range right now all winter long.  The Fv-3 GFS absolutely  needs to be calibrated correctly as pointed out in earlier posts.

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If the early 12z models are to be believed then the NAVGEM absolutely red flagged this event and is leading the way with the other models following it with ticks to the N and W. 

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4 minutes ago, Bosswx said:

Looking all rain for me as of now.

Too early to nail the coffin shut give it til 0z. Would like to have seen guidance hold or continue to adjust colder but we went the opposite direction. +NAO and +AO will do that so while not a huge surprise definitely not very encouraging. Whenever you see the NAVGEM that far N and W of all other guidance that is a huge indicator that we usually trend warmer and not colder. Still hopeful but wiggle room we had from say Q-town or Doylestown points S and E is hanging on by a thread.

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33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Watched a couple events sink south the last 48 hours to benefit DC, one went so far south it missed them you would think we could catch one break 

 

Euro ticked South again if that matters to you. One of the farthest S solutions now so go figure. Went from warmest and farthest west to just the opposite. 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022812_96_477_215.png

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19 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Happy Harper Day!! Go Phils!!

Off topic but I will say I love the Phillies I like Harper as a talented player but 13 yrs 330 mil is too many eggs one basket. You would think the organization would have learned after the Ryan Howard injury debacle and not being able to move him and that locked up money basically driving the team into the cellar for several years. I hope they have a contingency plan in the event of a similar injury or something. With that said i will be first in line at the parade when we win the WS in the next few years. GO Phils!!!!

18z isnt being very happy to us weather-wise for THIS event anyway.

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I posted this in the March 1st thread, but it applies here too.  Based on the 18z suite so far, I'll take the NAMs for tonight and Friday night, and the ICON for Sunday night, please :). Can we mix and match?

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2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I posted this in the March 1st thread, but it applies here too.  Based on the 18z suite so far, I'll take the NAMs for tonight and Friday night, and the ICON for Sunday night, please :). Can we mix and match?

Lol I wish we could. Tonight looks great and Sat look equally as good on the NAM then Sunday poops the bed in a big way. Like explosive diarrhea on your brand new fresh crisp white linens.

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Ralph, you said the other day that if the systems tonight and saturday are more amplified than predicted, we would be worse off for this Sunday night storm.  Is that what's happening now, according to guidance? 

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27 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Ralph, you said the other day that if the systems tonight and saturday are more amplified than predicted, we would be worse off for this Sunday night storm.  Is that what's happening now, according to guidance? 

You might have misinterpreted what I wrote or I miscommunicated it. I was saying irt to the Sunday system alone (not referring to Fri or early Sat tho they have separate implications) that we dont want the Sunday system to blow up and cut too close to us or even West of us. I think I posted a map and said the solution it showed at that time was probably the best looking scenario we would want. It was a balance between a fairly flat wave and some amplification as the upper energy passed under the region. We just dont want amping up too early else heights rise too much and we torch (relatively speaking ie 18z NAM) as precip moves in. Other guidance is ticking towards the best case scenario I mentioned here and in that post a few days ago. If I have time to find it I will link that OP here.

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33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You might have misinterpreted what I wrote or I miscommunicated it. I was saying irt to the Sunday system alone (not referring to Fri or early Sat tho they have separate implications) that we dont want the Sunday system to blow up and cut too close to us or even West of us. I think I posted a map and said the solution it showed at that time was probably the best looking scenario we would want. It was a balance between a fairly flat wave and some amplification as the upper energy passed under the region. We just dont want amping up too early else heights rise too much and we torch (relatively speaking ie 18z NAM) as precip moves in. Other guidance is ticking towards the best case scenario I mentioned here and in that post a few days ago. If I have time to find it I will link that OP here.

Thanks, I definitely misinterpreted you. That makes sense to me now.  Hopefully you can get  some good snow these next few days.  

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Just now, RedSky said:

0z GFS with a major severe possibly exciting track change for the late weekend storm 

This is the one that could deliver the goods

 

 

march3.png

If this model had a snowstorm bullseye all along and made that huge of a jump we would toss it. With that said tho other guidance continues to tick and slowly adjust S so the GFS may have the right intentions with its heart in the right place but methinks it took one too many swings of the jungle juice tonight. I95 r/s classic setup still my call.....that's my story and sticking to it.

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Is it...could it....yep Ralph's Unicorn through the clouds 

so far south it fringes far NW peeps

 

Lol....I sacrificed that unicorn weeks ago. But it's like when you kill an undead and the spirits it was holding are released thru energies stored within. These next several storm systems that are developing seemingly from thin air must be just that energy I released upon sacrifice. Damn that unicorn...damn it to eternal riddance!!! 

dead_unicorn.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If this model had a snowstorm bullseye all along and made that huge of a jump we would toss it. With that said tho other guidance continues to tick and slowly adjust S so the GFS may have the right intentions with its heart in the right place but methinks it took one too many swings of the jungle juice tonight. I95 r/s classic setup still my call.....that's my story and sticking to it.

A lot of difference between the NAM and GFS this close in. NAM mostly rain while GFS looks like a moderate snowstorm, maybe SECS. It may still be between the two like you think.

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