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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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18 minutes ago, astarck said:

I can’t find the post but wasn’t it mentioned here there are very few (or maybe even no) instances of DC getting more than 8-10” and NYC getting nothing?

I recall reading it when it was posted here, and there were like - two times on record - where that happened. Extremely rare.

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1 hour ago, astarck said:

I can’t find the post but wasn’t it mentioned here there are very few (or maybe even no) instances of DC getting more than 8-10” and NYC getting nothing?

On 1/12/2019 at 9:56 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z NAM shows an unusual distribution of snowfall centered around Washington, DC (where I believe 3"-6" is likely with locally higher amounts). The NAM shows 10" or more snow at DCA, less than 3" at Philadelphia, and no snow at New York City (where I believe no measurable snow will be reported). The only storm since 1950 that had 8" or more at DCA, <3" at PHL, and no snow at New York City occurred on March 9-10, 1999.

Accumulations during that storm were:

Baltimore: 4.6"
New York City: None
Philadelphia: 0.1"
Richmond: 0.8"
Salisbury: 5.4"
Sterling: 8.9"
Washington, DC: 8.4"

 

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34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

11.5 final and might lose 2” today in full sun and zero in shaded/partial

32F

What is this 'full sun' you are speaking of? Haven't seen the sun since Friday afternoon here.

Still heavy cloud cover at 1:30 pm here, although have made it above freezing at 33.4 degrees. That is first time since Friday.

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37 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So... for those of you with more experience than me... how long does the ground stay white after 11.5” of snow?

If highs are in the 38-43 F range I would expect you would lose about 2" a day mostly to sublimation (loss into the air as water vapor). As I mentioned before the storm, we had a similar snowfall here last Wednesday that was unrelated to your storm except it happened at a similar temperature and we've had those sorts of temperatures since, and I still have full snow cover of about 2-3" here today.

If it gets much above 43 F though, it's going to disappear in two or three days or so except in deeper shade. Since there's some chance of a top-up on Friday, I would expect you will get to that event with half your snow pack intact, and of course all large snow piles will start melting down a bit, but those will last until there's three or four very mild days and/or some heavy rain. 

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

 

Previously, I noted that there was a single storm (March 9-10, 1999) where DCA picked up 8" or more snow, Philadelphia received < 3" and New York City had no snow. The accumulations for the most recent storm were 10.3" at DCA, 1.4" at PHL, and Trace at NYC. The trace tied the least snowfall at NYC when Washington received 10" or more snow, which was set during the February 4-7, 2010 snowstorm (since 1950).

This storm brought the 2nd lowest figure at Philadelphia for any of Washington, DC's 10" or greater snowstorms. The record is 1.3" at PHL when 11.5" fell at DCA during the November 11-12, 1987 snowstorm.

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