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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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11 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

Will we get to see that time-lapse footage you mentioned you'd set up for this storm?  That'll be cool to watch with such a long duration but placid (wind-wise) storm...

I hope so.  I'll dig it up when I get home.  First time using these cams so I hope I set it up right.

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6 inches from first part (measured 9am yesterday) plus 2.5 inches yesterday/evening - storm total of 8.5, Fairfax/GMU

 

 

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13 minutes ago, flsch22 said:

6 inches from first part (measured 9am yesterday) plus 2.5 inches yesterday/evening - storm total of 8.5, Fairfax/GMU

 

 

Tracks with me near Bonnie Brae, accounting for losses during the day. At the end of the storm we had about 7 inches OTG.

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I can’t find the post but wasn’t it mentioned here there are very few (or maybe even no) instances of DC getting more than 8-10” and NYC getting nothing?

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18 minutes ago, astarck said:

I can’t find the post but wasn’t it mentioned here there are very few (or maybe even no) instances of DC getting more than 8-10” and NYC getting nothing?

I recall reading it when it was posted here, and there were like - two times on record - where that happened. Extremely rare.

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1 hour ago, astarck said:

I can’t find the post but wasn’t it mentioned here there are very few (or maybe even no) instances of DC getting more than 8-10” and NYC getting nothing?

I'm pretty sure it was a Don Sutherland post.

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1 hour ago, astarck said:

I can’t find the post but wasn’t it mentioned here there are very few (or maybe even no) instances of DC getting more than 8-10” and NYC getting nothing?

On 1/12/2019 at 9:56 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z NAM shows an unusual distribution of snowfall centered around Washington, DC (where I believe 3"-6" is likely with locally higher amounts). The NAM shows 10" or more snow at DCA, less than 3" at Philadelphia, and no snow at New York City (where I believe no measurable snow will be reported). The only storm since 1950 that had 8" or more at DCA, <3" at PHL, and no snow at New York City occurred on March 9-10, 1999.

Accumulations during that storm were:

Baltimore: 4.6"
New York City: None
Philadelphia: 0.1"
Richmond: 0.8"
Salisbury: 5.4"
Sterling: 8.9"
Washington, DC: 8.4"

 

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34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

11.5 final and might lose 2” today in full sun and zero in shaded/partial

32F

What is this 'full sun' you are speaking of? Haven't seen the sun since Friday afternoon here.

Still heavy cloud cover at 1:30 pm here, although have made it above freezing at 33.4 degrees. That is first time since Friday.

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On 1/13/2019 at 8:47 AM, ThePhotoGuy said:

Really like the second pic. I love that park. It is so pretty there in the fall. I bet the views from the overlook of the mountains/river look amazing in the snow. 

Pics from Cullers Overlook this morning. Spectacular. 

53E14186-C595-4EFC-835E-D7BE8C01C86A.jpeg

2D11B3D3-FE1D-47E2-9C83-EC1DC6DB3292.jpeg

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37 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So... for those of you with more experience than me... how long does the ground stay white after 11.5” of snow?

If highs are in the 38-43 F range I would expect you would lose about 2" a day mostly to sublimation (loss into the air as water vapor). As I mentioned before the storm, we had a similar snowfall here last Wednesday that was unrelated to your storm except it happened at a similar temperature and we've had those sorts of temperatures since, and I still have full snow cover of about 2-3" here today.

If it gets much above 43 F though, it's going to disappear in two or three days or so except in deeper shade. Since there's some chance of a top-up on Friday, I would expect you will get to that event with half your snow pack intact, and of course all large snow piles will start melting down a bit, but those will last until there's three or four very mild days and/or some heavy rain. 

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

 

Previously, I noted that there was a single storm (March 9-10, 1999) where DCA picked up 8" or more snow, Philadelphia received < 3" and New York City had no snow. The accumulations for the most recent storm were 10.3" at DCA, 1.4" at PHL, and Trace at NYC. The trace tied the least snowfall at NYC when Washington received 10" or more snow, which was set during the February 4-7, 2010 snowstorm (since 1950).

This storm brought the 2nd lowest figure at Philadelphia for any of Washington, DC's 10" or greater snowstorms. The record is 1.3" at PHL when 11.5" fell at DCA during the November 11-12, 1987 snowstorm.

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I just posted the model discussion write-up.

The short story is that the FV3 and 3k NAM did well.  My favorite map that I generated is probably this one, showing calculated ratios for yesterday's snow from snowfall analysis and precip analysis.

fubr3Fi.jpg

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33F for a high and 39.6 maximum direct sun reading. Lost 2.5 in the direct sun and compaction so 9” remains and list 0.5 in full shade so 11” remains

31F

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Just now, smokeybandit said:

AA county already has a 2 hour delay for tomorrow

As do HoCo, MoCo and PG.

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Temp already down to 26 degrees... snow cover can do wonders. Gonna be a cold night ahead with enhanced radiational cooling.

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I really like how long the snow has stayed on the trees with the minimal wind. Pretty cool walking around in the woods today in the late afternoon with the sun shining and a blue sky and a lot of snow left on the trees. Usually around here snow doesn't last long on the trees. 

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