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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE

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If only... absurd run. Of course it took until gametime to get NAMed..
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Better to get named on day of storm than at 60 hours
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As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the
northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area.
Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally
higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing
increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into
Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice
the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height
for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV
and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI
banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the
previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches
across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches
elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty
regarding the placement and location of any banding
precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight
change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall
totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow
across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday.
 

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Mount Holly keeping a WWA for now, but mentioned a possible upgrade in the AFD for tonight. Also noticed they have a bit more of a 'wide range' than usual for accumulations in the text forecast, owing to the possible tight gradient and uncertainty with the coastal enhancement across this area. Calling for 2-6" here and 3-7" around Easton. Less NE. Seems reasonable.

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24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mount Holly keeping a WWA for now, but mentioned a possible upgrade in the AFD for tonight. Also noticed they have a bit more of a 'wide range' than usual for accumulations in the text forecast, owing to the possible tight gradient and uncertainty with the coastal enhancement across this area. Calling for 2-6" here and 3-7" around Easton. Less NE. Seems reasonable.

We're still pretty far out in time from any coastal development, and that placement is always difficult, so I expect some surprises later tomorrow. Good for some, and not so good for others.

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NAMed! Lmao. Wow. Overdone no doubt unless the coastal gets going over us. 6z is always too amped... and we shouldn’t be model hugging at this point. Particularly not the euro, gfs. NAM is almost out of range too. RAPP is always a good call as we get close to kickoff.  

But hey... now all we need is that game time 25 mile shift north and we’re golden here in central md ;)

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16 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We're still pretty far out in time from any coastal development, and that placement is always difficult, so I expect some surprises later tomorrow. Good for some, and not so good for others.

If anything, it’ll hurt those in the SSW quadrant of the storm, and help those on the NE flank if a coastal gets going earlier and is more amped than progged. Earlier development = quicker the energy transfers and pivots everything..  something to be watched, but doesn’t have a ton of model support. A few ensemble runs here and there. Can’t rule it out though. We are SO close. 

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And of course...especially for the northern half of the CWA... ratios will likely be better than progged. PSUhoffman and company will be posting the old “it snowed only 0.3” QPF liquid equivalent and we have 5” posts. Because of this I think DC and Baltimore proper see very similar totals, despite BAL seeing slightly less QPF. 10:1 ratios vs 12:1 or so.

 

Again... the things to watch for... game day bump north with the storm (25 mile shift north can’t be ruled out), a juicier than progged radar (which looks very robust around Missouri, Indiana, etc 8 inches of snow and counting in St. Louis so far) and last but not least, MAYBE the coastal getting going earlier. A lot to iron out while we are in game time. Here’s to hoping something finally goes our way. 

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I have made peace it. I am only getting 1-3, when 50 miles south of me get 6+


I think 2-4” is probably a good call for your area. I know that area well since I lived there for 19 years. It’s a sneaky good spot for storms and banding in Eastern Baltimore Co


.
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These last minute trends are so predictable. Finally something more related to climo.

I don't think the shifting is done either

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The NY NWS seems to think the euro and sref is too far north based on radar:

 So far observations and
radar data show that the ECMWF and SREF mean are to far N with
their measurable precipitation over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

As a result, have lowered pops

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