• Member Statistics

    16,251
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mindlesssheep
    Newest Member
    Mindlesssheep
    Joined
Rjay

Memory Lane

Recommended Posts

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD INTO TUESDAY...

238pm
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON...EASTERN BERGEN...
EASTERN ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND
(STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...SUFFOLK...QUEENS AND
NASSAU COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT.

* SNOWFALL RATES...2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

  SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Same storm.   I dont look depressed 

post-5119-0-06844100-1422331841.jpg

It could most certainly hurt to be your avatar in that weather, although you could be Forky’s. As always .....

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BDB was for me what January 2015 was for most people on this forum, albeit a slightly smaller bust. I was home in Allentown from my freshman year of college and had given up on the storm until the Christmas eve model runs pulled me back in. The modeled gradient on the western side of the storm was fairly sharp but no models consistently had far eastern PA out of the 6-10" range, and some were higher. We got a WSW for 10-16", IIRC the NWS was aggressive because the storm was overperforming to the south. Of course, the storm deepened more quickly and profoundly than expected, and the heavy banding hit a wall around I-287. With this result:

Dec26_27_2010_NJ_snow.jpg

 

2" of pixie dust and the most painful radar images of my life, at least until I watched the Blizzard of 2016 drop 30 inches of snow at my house from cloudy Ithaca 36 hours after leaving home for spring semester.

 

1413797921_ScreenShot2016-01-23at1_56_13PM.thumb.png.8ff522b9507c63e82d705c64f2add8d7.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was one of the few who did not believe the 3 feet that was forecast...The ao was very positive at the time and I was worried about it...we did get 9" which normaly would be a nice storm if 10" was predicted...the next year the big one hit and I was bullish about that one because the ao/nao went very negative a few days before the storm...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Idk the 2015 blizzard is still my #2 all time (~24" of snow)tied with February 2013 and behind the king: January 2016, obviously it busted for most of you guys though. Im also only 20 so the sample size is limited lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/26/2020 at 5:14 PM, Gravity Wave said:

BDB was for me what January 2015 was for most people on this forum, albeit a slightly smaller bust. I was home in Allentown from my freshman year of college and had given up on the storm until the Christmas eve model runs pulled me back in. The modeled gradient on the western side of the storm was fairly sharp but no models consistently had far eastern PA out of the 6-10" range, and some were higher. We got a WSW for 10-16", IIRC the NWS was aggressive because the storm was overperforming to the south. Of course, the storm deepened more quickly and profoundly than expected, and the heavy banding hit a wall around I-287. With this result:

Dec26_27_2010_NJ_snow.jpg

 

2" of pixie dust and the most painful radar images of my life, at least until I watched the Blizzard of 2016 drop 30 inches of snow at my house from cloudy Ithaca 36 hours after leaving home for spring semester.

 

1413797921_ScreenShot2016-01-23at1_56_13PM.thumb.png.8ff522b9507c63e82d705c64f2add8d7.png

Never thought I'd see the same storm drop 30 inches of snow at Allentown and JFK lol- shades of Feb 1983 on steroids.....

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm waiting for some AFD's from the March 2001 fiasco.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
242 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

WL GO AHD AND ISSUE WSW FOR ENTIRE FA FOR 3D PD. AVN/ECMWF 
CONSISTANT AND SHOWG MAJOR LO PRES EFFECTG FA SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST 
TUE MRNG. THINKG IN XS OF A FT OF SNW...ALNG WITH 25 TO 30 MPH 
WNDS...IE NR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...SUN NGT THRU TUE MRNG. THIS 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRNGST STM SINCE THE JAN 96 BLIZZARD. 
THE ETA AND NGM HAVE COME OVR TO THE AVN/ECMWF SOLN AS WELL AS THE 
NOGAPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SHOWG A MORE PROGRESSIVE 
SYSTEM. BUT IF THE SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL...AS IT SEEMS IT WL NOW...IT 
WL STALL BTWN DELMARVA AND CAPE COD...AND CUD HAMMER US THRU TUE 
MRNG. AM CONFIDENT ENUF THAT WE WILL GET SOMETHING THUS WL GO AHD 
AND PULL THE TRIGGR ON THE WSW. ON THE MARINE...THINKG WE CUD GET 
CSTL FLOODG PROBLMS AT TIMES OF HI TIDE...BEGNG SUN NGT. THATS STILL 
4TH PD...AND WL NOT ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH ATTM. BUT ONE WL PROBLY 
BE ISSUED THIS AFTNS PCKG. WRKZFP IN AWIPS BY 3.5 AM. ZNS WIBIS BTW 
4 AND 4.5 AM. ON THE MARINE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF GLS SUN NGT ON. 
PROBLY BE UP TO SCA SUN AFTN.

.OKX...WINTER STORM WATCH CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081 FROM
       18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Rjay said:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
242 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001

WL GO AHD AND ISSUE WSW FOR ENTIRE FA FOR 3D PD. AVN/ECMWF 
CONSISTANT AND SHOWG MAJOR LO PRES EFFECTG FA SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST 
TUE MRNG. THINKG IN XS OF A FT OF SNW...ALNG WITH 25 TO 30 MPH 
WNDS...IE NR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...SUN NGT THRU TUE MRNG. THIS 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRNGST STM SINCE THE JAN 96 BLIZZARD. 
THE ETA AND NGM HAVE COME OVR TO THE AVN/ECMWF SOLN AS WELL AS THE 
NOGAPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SHOWG A MORE PROGRESSIVE 
SYSTEM. BUT IF THE SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL...AS IT SEEMS IT WL NOW...IT 
WL STALL BTWN DELMARVA AND CAPE COD...AND CUD HAMMER US THRU TUE 
MRNG. AM CONFIDENT ENUF THAT WE WILL GET SOMETHING THUS WL GO AHD 
AND PULL THE TRIGGR ON THE WSW. ON THE MARINE...THINKG WE CUD GET 
CSTL FLOODG PROBLMS AT TIMES OF HI TIDE...BEGNG SUN NGT. THATS STILL 
4TH PD...AND WL NOT ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH ATTM. BUT ONE WL PROBLY 
BE ISSUED THIS AFTNS PCKG. WRKZFP IN AWIPS BY 3.5 AM. ZNS WIBIS BTW 
4 AND 4.5 AM. ON THE MARINE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF GLS SUN NGT ON. 
PROBLY BE UP TO SCA SUN AFTN.

.OKX...WINTER STORM WATCH CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081 FROM
       18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

wow a bit more tepid than Jan 2015....but Mar 01 is considered the bigger bust?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow a bit more tepid than Jan 2015....but Mar 01 is considered the bigger bust?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001

DISC: EXPLAING THE MODELS AT THIS TIME IS ANTICLIMATIC SO ILL GET
RIGHT INTO THE MODEL INTERPRETATION/COORDINATION AND THE POTENTIAL
EFFECTS IN OUR CWA.

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS THIS PACKAGE IS TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH 
FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE 
MORNING FOR COASTAL PLAIN-COUNTIES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BUT 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OFF THE N.C. COAST AND THE MAGNITUDE OF 
THE EVENT IN OUR CWA IS DICTATING THE EARLY WWA RELEASE ESPECIALLY 
WITH THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. ITS THE FIRST TIME THAT I CAN 
REMEMBER A START TIME BUT NOT AN ENDING TIME IN SIGHT. THE SNOW 
BEGINS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES HEAVY AT TIMES 
INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS EARLY TUE.  

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING COASTAL FLOODING PROB LATE SUNDAY INTO 
EARLY TUE BUT THE CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE OCEAN FRONT FROM THE HEAVY 
WAVE ACTION AND RESULTING BEACH EROSION. AS THE STORM RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFIES ON SUN THE WINDS ARE GOING TO TURN TO THE NORTH BUT WITH 
THE PRESSURE SO LOW THE TIDES WILL STILL RISE AND PUT US IN A 
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CATEGORY ON MONDAY. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Fwiw It did last 3 days. Most of what fell was some light snow sleet frz rain concoction with some heavy snow at the end that didn't stick

Islip got 18" I think.  Had a decent amount (6"+) in my area too.  Just can't remember how much.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Islip got 18" I think.  Had a decent amount (6"+) in my area too.  Just can't remember how much.  

I just remember how nothing was going on Monday morning and they started lowering amounts but still going 1 to 2 feet. Went to work after having expected 2 days off and snow started again Monday afternoon but could see the radar still looked like shit. It did loop back and gave us some snow overnight and Tuesday 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the full phase would have been 2-3 feet

Yep. This storm legit sent me into a month long depression as a 15 year old. (Yeah I’m a bit strange)...One of the NE forum members has a nice write up if you google it, but back then the 12z euro didnt come out until evening times, and if im remembering correctly there was no 00z euro. I think one of the 12z euro runs finally backed down, but the AVN stayed on board for a bit which is why forecasters had trouble reversing courses. Ill still always remember JBs newsletter few days before. What a bastard storm. I also remember Ji and Noreaster hyping it up for a week on wright weather lol...what a beautiful 500mb though, so damn close. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yep. This storm legit sent me into a month long depression as a 15 year old. (Yeah I’m a bit strange)...One of the NE forum members has a nice write up if you google it, but back then the 12z euro didnt come out until evening times, and if im remembering correctly there was no 00z euro. I think one of the 12z euro runs finally backed down, but the AVN stayed on board for a bit which is why forecasters had trouble reversing courses. Ill still always remember JBs newsletter few days before. What a bastard storm. I also remember Ji and Noreaster hyping it up for a week on wright weather lol...what a beautiful 500mb though, so damn close. 

It was also the biggest weekday storm since 96 and was pretty unheard of to cancel schools in advance like they did and just about every forecaster went all in with it being a biblical storm.

At least with 2015 many models never jumped on board so I was always suspicious that we'd get the crazy amounts that Upton was putting out. At least out here west of the city anyway

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...