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Rjay

Memory Lane

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Talk about past storms in here.   Posts all your favorites and the ones you hated too.  It might help keep the main disco threads from going too far off the rails.  TIA.

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Talk about past storms in here.   Posts all your favorites and the ones you hated too.  It might help keep the main disco threads from going too far off the rails.  TIA.

Thanks! I just saw this and wow we were just talking about this storm.

My verbal memory of the storm you posted about is that it came in two parts and we compared it to the Dec 2003 storm mid event.  The first part dropped like 4-6 inches in the morning and we had a lull with a slight warm up in the afternoon and a change to drizzle and in the early evening the precip picked back up and changed from heavy rain to heavy sleet quickly and there was even a tornado or funnel cloud with hail reported just off the south shore and then it changed to heavy snow and the real fun began with 5-6 inch per hour heavy rates!

Who said we cant get a big snowstorm in a la nina? WE HAD THREE BIG ONES THAT YEAR!  That and 1995-96 were my two favorite la nina winters ever.

 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-074-271245-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101227T2300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  UP TO 30 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL 
  BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 
  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO DOWN SOME POWER LINES...TREE LIMBS...AND 
  CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
  RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
  LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* WINDS....NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you have the forecast for the Jan 2016 storm and then the final totals?  That HECS was the antidote to the Jan 2015 "HECS" like the 2002-03 winter was the antidote to the 2001-02 "winter" lol.

 

The forecasts weren't that far off but 48 hours out they were awful. Some of the models still had us getting nothing while the nam had 3 feet

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-074-271245-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101227T2300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. 

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  UP TO 30 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO 
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL 
  BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 
  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO DOWN SOME POWER LINES...TREE LIMBS...AND 
  CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
  RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
  LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* WINDS....NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Thanks RJ!  Do you have the historic NWS message on Christmas in 2010 when they said they thought the GFS was having feedback issues but they'd give it one more run before jumping on its snowier solution?

My favorite AFD since January 1996!

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you have the forecast for the Jan 2016 storm and then the final totals?  That HECS was the antidote to the Jan 2015 "HECS" like the 2002-03 winter was the antidote to the 2001-02 "winter" lol.

 

Upton usually updates throughout every storm.  In most of pur big ones they started at 6-10".  The totals would creep upward with every update.

Here's a random one from Jan 2016.  

 

Screenshot_20190105-130601.png

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Upton usually updates throughout every storm.  In most of pur big ones they started at 6-10".  The totals would creep upward with every update.

Here's a random one from Jan 2016.  

 

Screenshot_20190105-130601.png

They really were on target with having that blizzard warning ending at 7 am because thats right when the snow ended lol, we got that last lingering band that dropped a few inches overnight and it was clearing out right at 7 am perfect timing for the official measurement :P

See thats one the people who measure snow should never get wrong, there wasn't a lot of wind (good enough for a blizzard, but not 78 or Boxing Day kind of wind to mess up snowfall totals or snow growth) or any mixing or changeover to mess them up and the snow even ended right at the time they're supposed to measure!

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks RJ!  Do you have the historic NWS message on Christmas in 2010 when they said they thought the GFS was having feedback issues but they'd give it one more run before jumping on its snowier solution?

My favorite AFD since January 1996!

 

From the NWS in Taunton

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12ZNAMAS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WEHAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...ASWELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM/THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THEBENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROMHPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THISMORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONETHING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCYBETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TOTHE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TOWAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJORCHANGES

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The models completely missed how far west this beastly northern steam s/w would be.  It dropped due south out of Canada.  The GFS caught it first.

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9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The models completely missed how far west this beastly northern steam s/w would be.  It dropped due south out of Canada.  The GFS caught it first.

I cant help but think that storm set the tone for the next 5 weeks.  Sometimes you wonder, does the pattern make the storm or does the storm make the pattern? In that case I think it was both.  If that storm hadn't happened, I dont think we get our historic month in January either.  As you might recall, the LR forecasts for that winter weren't for a lot of snow and we had already had the cold for a couple of weeks and whiffed on a couple of storms so people were frustrated and the "no December snow" analogs were being rolled out for how bad a winter can be in a La Nina when it doesn't snow at least 3 inches in December.  And then look what happened- we blasted right past 3 inches lol.

 

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3 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said:

2016blizzard839pm23jan.PNG

SW Nassau has only been in the jackpot zone three times in my life that I can remember, Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016.  All were moderate or stronger el ninos.  Wow what a storm that was to be in the jackpot zone for.  I may never see a 30" snowstorm again in my lifetime.  Crazy thing is we also pulled a 3.0" liquid equivalent, so it wasn't even one of those high ratio deals.

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