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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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14 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

Bob,

Love your input.

I'm just curious.

I was born in 70 and can remember when it wasn't that rare for troughs to engulf the entire country.

77-78 comes to mind.

What can cause the entire country or close to the entire country to be colder than normal?

Could this be setting up in this current modeled pattern?

We need a -ao/nao combo for a broad conus trough. 77-78 had that iirc. It's not all that uncommon. 95-96, 09-10, and 10-11 all had periods of a -pna  coinciding with a trough and winter wx in the east. It's been a while though.

Not all -pna's are terrible. Having a -epo is key for cold in the east with a -pna because it deflects the pac jet poleward and away from the north american coast. The -ao/nao suppresses heights in the east so cold continental air can stretch coast to coast in the US.  One of the snowiest winters on record in my region happened back in the 60s and basically had a door to door -pna.

You guys in the SE probably need a +pna more than my region though. Maybe someone can look back at years where there was a -pna but good snow in your area amd figure out what other features made it work. We may not even need to worry about it as the -pna on ensemble guidance may just be transient or never materialize. 

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