Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 8-10 Storm Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z UKMET run snowfall map...click on the white title in the header.

 

Hopefully the Euro holds serve. Having the UKIE and it both showing me with 12+ inches is tantalizing to say the least. Still so long before we get the full picture though. It seems like we've been looking at this thing for 10 days now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Hopefully the Euro holds serve. Having the UKIE and it both showing me with 12+ inches is tantalizing to say the least. Still so long before we get the full picture though. It seems like we've been looking at this thing for 10 days now

I hear that....Hopefully at some point during this winter I hope we will have more than one storm inside of d10 to look at.  Still crazy how long the weather models have held this solution.  I would not be surprised to see this make a run for it(up the coast) as a Noreaster'.  With the relaxation in the pattern right behind it, it is sitting in a perfect spot to be a decent storm like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our whole story revolves around a little piece of northern stream energy that is going to be trying to catch up with the southern stream energy. Very good write up from the WPC regarding it. We need it to pull the storm closer to the coast as detailed below. 

Quote

Forecast confidence declines in the details after 12Z Sunday when timing differences between the northern/southern stream amplify. The eventual outcome seems to hinge largely on interaction with a relatively small-scale northern stream shortwave currently over the North Pacific. This feature will de-amplify as it rounds the apex of the western Canadian ridge before amplifying once again as it enters cyclonic flow across central Canada Fri-Sat. Strong surface high pressure (1036-1040mb) across the Midwest will likely outrun the surface low to the south which will play a role in how far north the precipitation shield will get (working against the typically seen NW drift in dprog/dt). Trailing shortwave (of mid-latitude Pacific origin) will be yet another source of model/forecast error as it catches up and overtakes the initial northern stream shortwave which may act to slow the trough and tug the system closer to the coast as it attempts to exit to the east-northeast or northeast. Trend has been for a slower exodus next Mon/Tue but that may not be enough to overcome the cold/dry air to the north. With all the given unknowns, specifics will have to wait another couple of forecast cycles but the best agreement on at least modest snowfall lies over SW Virginia and NW North Carolina.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro better run for BNA,just no cigar but did get colder

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC04
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 12Z 04-DEC   2.5    -8.5     129     877    32004           0.00            
TUE 18Z 04-DEC   4.1    -7.6     129    1225    29005           0.00            
WED 00Z 05-DEC   2.6    -8.2     129    1013    31004           0.01            
WED 06Z 05-DEC   1.0    -9.8     128     482    27006           0.00            
WED 12Z 05-DEC  -1.5   -11.4     127       0    29006           0.00            
WED 18Z 05-DEC   2.6   -10.8     128     459    31009           0.00            
THU 00Z 06-DEC  -0.1    -6.8     129    1358    23003           0.00            
THU 06Z 06-DEC  -2.0    -3.5     130    1579    20004           0.00            
THU 12Z 06-DEC  -2.5    -1.4     130    2084    19005           0.00            
THU 18Z 06-DEC   6.7    -1.1     131    2154    21006           0.00            
FRI 00Z 07-DEC   5.2    -2.2     131    2444    24004           0.00            
FRI 06Z 07-DEC   3.5    -2.3     130    1441    31003           0.01            
FRI 12Z 07-DEC   2.7    -2.1     130    1053    03004           0.00            
FRI 18Z 07-DEC   5.3    -0.5     130    1524    04002           0.00            
SAT 00Z 08-DEC   3.5    -0.2     130    3626    35003           0.00            
SAT 06Z 08-DEC   0.7     0.5     130    5180    02004           0.00            
SAT 12Z 08-DEC  -0.1     1.6     130    4190    04006           0.00            
SAT 18Z 08-DEC   3.4     1.0     131    5199    05006           0.00            
SUN 00Z 09-DEC   2.3     0.9     131    5166    06008           0.02            
SUN 06Z 09-DEC   1.6     0.1     131    4379    06008           0.19            
SUN 12Z 09-DEC   1.1     0.9     131    5388    05010           0.49            
SUN 18Z 09-DEC   1.0     0.6     130    4422    03007           0.47            
MON 00Z 10-DEC   0.8     0.4     130    2695    03008           0.36            
MON 06Z 10-DEC   0.8    -0.1     130    2222    01006           0.05         

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro better run for BNA,just no cigar but did get colder

 


ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC04
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 12Z 04-DEC   2.5    -8.5     129     877    32004           0.00            
TUE 18Z 04-DEC   4.1    -7.6     129    1225    29005           0.00            
WED 00Z 05-DEC   2.6    -8.2     129    1013    31004           0.01            
WED 06Z 05-DEC   1.0    -9.8     128     482    27006           0.00            
WED 12Z 05-DEC  -1.5   -11.4     127       0    29006           0.00            
WED 18Z 05-DEC   2.6   -10.8     128     459    31009           0.00            
THU 00Z 06-DEC  -0.1    -6.8     129    1358    23003           0.00            
THU 06Z 06-DEC  -2.0    -3.5     130    1579    20004           0.00            
THU 12Z 06-DEC  -2.5    -1.4     130    2084    19005           0.00            
THU 18Z 06-DEC   6.7    -1.1     131    2154    21006           0.00            
FRI 00Z 07-DEC   5.2    -2.2     131    2444    24004           0.00            
FRI 06Z 07-DEC   3.5    -2.3     130    1441    31003           0.01            
FRI 12Z 07-DEC   2.7    -2.1     130    1053    03004           0.00            
FRI 18Z 07-DEC   5.3    -0.5     130    1524    04002           0.00            
SAT 00Z 08-DEC   3.5    -0.2     130    3626    35003           0.00            
SAT 06Z 08-DEC   0.7     0.5     130    5180    02004           0.00            
SAT 12Z 08-DEC  -0.1     1.6     130    4190    04006           0.00            
SAT 18Z 08-DEC   3.4     1.0     131    5199    05006           0.00            
SUN 00Z 09-DEC   2.3     0.9     131    5166    06008           0.02            
SUN 06Z 09-DEC   1.6     0.1     131    4379    06008           0.19            
SUN 12Z 09-DEC   1.1     0.9     131    5388    05010           0.49            
SUN 18Z 09-DEC   1.0     0.6     130    4422    03007           0.47            
MON 00Z 10-DEC   0.8     0.4     130    2695    03008           0.36            
MON 06Z 10-DEC   0.8    -0.1     130    2222    01006           0.05         

 

That is so so close to a monster snowstorm for Nashville.  I could even see heavy rates keeping it all snow with temps around 33 at 850. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z DEC04
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 12Z 04-DEC   2.5    -6.4     129     870    35004           0.00            
TUE 18Z 04-DEC   4.0    -6.6     130    1105    30003           0.00            
WED 00Z 05-DEC   2.5    -7.0     130     966    29004           0.00            
WED 06Z 05-DEC   0.7    -7.6     129     380    26004           0.02            
WED 12Z 05-DEC  -1.2    -9.1     128       0    27006           0.02            
WED 18Z 05-DEC   0.6   -10.2     128     207    29007           0.00            
THU 00Z 06-DEC  -1.3    -9.9     128       7    29003           0.00            
THU 06Z 06-DEC  -4.4    -5.8     128       0    18004           0.00            
THU 12Z 06-DEC  -3.2    -2.6     129      16    20002           0.00            
THU 18Z 06-DEC   4.8    -1.7     130    1288    24004           0.00            
FRI 00Z 07-DEC   2.9    -1.3     131    2373    23004           0.00            
FRI 06Z 07-DEC   2.5    -3.2     130    1583    24004           0.00            
FRI 12Z 07-DEC   1.6    -3.1     130     927    04000           0.00            
FRI 18Z 07-DEC   5.2    -0.7     130    1477    03003           0.00            
SAT 00Z 08-DEC   0.7     0.2     131    3817    05003           0.00            
SAT 06Z 08-DEC  -1.2     0.5     131    4048    04002           0.00            
SAT 12Z 08-DEC  -0.4     1.0     130    4928    05004           0.00            
SAT 18Z 08-DEC   4.3     1.1     131    4671    03004           0.00            
SUN 00Z 09-DEC   2.7     0.7     131    4271    06004           0.02            
SUN 06Z 09-DEC   2.2     1.0     132    4785    06008           0.11            
SUN 12Z 09-DEC   1.5     1.5     131    5939    07010           0.33            
SUN 18Z 09-DEC   0.9     0.5     130    6267    05010           0.59            
MON 00Z 10-DEC   0.8    -1.2     130    3238    05009           0.18            
MON 06Z 10-DEC   1.0     0.2     131    6146    03006           0.05            
MON 12Z 10-DEC   0.4    -0.6     130    2234    04004           0.37            
MON 18Z 10-DEC   1.5    -0.1     130    2784    04003           0.37     
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Northwest Tennessee, Kentucky, Tri Cities Tenn, and southwest Virginia have a decent chance of snow. Nashville, Clarksvile and Knoxville need a miracle. I'd take MEM-HSV-CHA off the table.

Middle Kentucky has the trickiest path with the warm nose. West Kentucky and northwest Tennessee benefit on the northwest side. East Kentucky is at a higher elevation. Tri Cities into Virginia are closer to the coldest air from the north, but the warm nose will make a run up the Valley.

High pressure HP is strong but lacks very cold air. Unfortunately for points south, HP is strongest east of the Apps. Needed strongest HP west of Apps. Also 500/700 mb lows are at/north of US-72 which takes it out of snow consideration.

Areas that receive snow will likely start as rain. TROWAL feature on some models may help snow on back side (north/favored only). TROWAL is basically a good comma head. Precip is enhanced by WAA from the warm nose into colder core on the back side. TROWAL would only benefit north/favored side of Region. TROWAL post coming in Education thread..

Northern third of our Region still has many challenges; however, it remains in the game for snow. I'm thinking northwest Tenn, Kentucky, TRI, Virginia.

Some of those guys found their miracle on the 12z Euro.  :)  Simply an incredible run from the Euro.  I think this matches pretty well with the UK at 12z too.  Good to see some oscillations south are still on the table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z DEC04
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 12Z 04-DEC   3.1    -5.4     129    1056    35007           0.00            
TUE 18Z 04-DEC   5.3    -6.7     130    1431    31005           0.00            
WED 00Z 05-DEC   3.6    -7.1     130    1323    31005           0.00            
WED 06Z 05-DEC   1.4    -8.3     129     734    29005           0.00            
WED 12Z 05-DEC  -1.3    -8.3     128      17    29006           0.00            
WED 18Z 05-DEC   2.0   -10.1     128     390    31008           0.00            
THU 00Z 06-DEC  -0.4    -7.1     129     655    32004           0.00            
THU 06Z 06-DEC  -2.5    -3.3     129      55    00001           0.00            
THU 12Z 06-DEC  -3.0     0.3     129    5680    03001           0.00            
THU 18Z 06-DEC   6.1    -0.3     131    1944    23003           0.00            
FRI 00Z 07-DEC   4.2    -0.2     131    3151    20004           0.00            
FRI 06Z 07-DEC   4.1    -1.4     131    2400    26002           0.00            
FRI 12Z 07-DEC   3.6    -0.3     131    2349    00003           0.00            
FRI 18Z 07-DEC   7.0     1.2     131    5153    02002           0.00            
SAT 00Z 08-DEC   5.0     1.3     132    5167    04003           0.00            
SAT 06Z 08-DEC   2.4     1.9     132    7130    02004           0.00            
SAT 12Z 08-DEC   2.3     1.7     131    6692    04005           0.00            
SAT 18Z 08-DEC   4.3     0.8     131    5422    06004           0.01            
SUN 00Z 09-DEC   2.8     0.6     131    4908    06007           0.25            
SUN 06Z 09-DEC   3.4     1.1     131    6610    06010           0.65            
SUN 12Z 09-DEC   3.4     0.2     131    6077    06008           0.35            
SUN 18Z 09-DEC   2.2    -2.9     130    7494    05007           0.49            
MON 00Z 10-DEC   1.2    -2.2     130    3053    05007           0.16            
MON 06Z 10-DEC   1.4    -1.7     130    1908    01005           0.05            
MON 12Z 10-DEC   1.6    -0.1     130    3475    35004           0.08            
MON 18Z 10-DEC   3.2    -1.8     130    1102    34006           0.03            
TUE 00Z 11-DEC   1.9    -4.0     130     783    33005           0.03            
TUE 06Z 11-DEC   0.0    -4.8     129      33    35008           0.07            
TUE 12Z 11-DEC  -0.1    -1.5     130    1192    34005           0.04  
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            12Z DEC04
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 12Z 04-DEC   1.2    -7.3     129     348    33006           0.00            
TUE 18Z 04-DEC   2.5    -7.3     129     609    30005           0.00            
WED 00Z 05-DEC   1.1    -7.3     129     356    30006           0.01            
WED 06Z 05-DEC  -0.8    -8.4     128      36    28007           0.01            
WED 12Z 05-DEC  -2.5   -10.3     127       0    30008           0.01            
WED 18Z 05-DEC  -1.0   -11.2     127      13    30008           0.00            
THU 00Z 06-DEC  -3.2    -8.2     128      83    30004           0.00            
THU 06Z 06-DEC  -3.4    -4.4     129       0    21003           0.00            
THU 12Z 06-DEC  -3.8    -2.5     129      22    18004           0.00            
THU 18Z 06-DEC   5.2    -2.0     131    1472    24005           0.00            
FRI 00Z 07-DEC   2.9    -2.4     131    1756    23005           0.00            
FRI 06Z 07-DEC   1.9    -2.8     130     769    27004           0.01            
FRI 12Z 07-DEC   1.1    -2.4     130     487    34003           0.01            
FRI 18Z 07-DEC   4.7    -0.9     130    1255    04002           0.00            
SAT 00Z 08-DEC   1.0    -0.2     131    2332    05003           0.00            
SAT 06Z 08-DEC  -0.8     0.6     131    3848    02004           0.00            
SAT 12Z 08-DEC  -0.9     1.5     130    5090    05005           0.00            
SAT 18Z 08-DEC   3.4     1.5     131    4526    07005           0.00            
SUN 00Z 09-DEC   1.9     0.9     131    4308    09006           0.02            
SUN 06Z 09-DEC   1.3     0.6     131    4078    07009           0.14            
SUN 12Z 09-DEC   1.5     0.9     131    4717    07011           0.37            
SUN 18Z 09-DEC   1.1     0.9     131    4201    06008           0.79            
MON 00Z 10-DEC   0.7     0.7     130    3468    07008           0.55            
MON 06Z 10-DEC   0.7    -0.6     130    1032    03006           0.10            
MON 12Z 10-DEC   0.0    -0.2     130     374    02005           0.25            
MON 18Z 10-DEC   0.7    -2.1     130     227    36004           0.11            
TUE 00Z 11-DEC  -0.3    -4.4     129      67    01007           0.10            
TUE 06Z 11-DEC  -1.8    -3.5     129       3    35007           0.11            
TUE 12Z 11-DEC  -3.1    -0.6     129     115    34006           0.01   
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z DEC04
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 12Z 04-DEC   1.9    -6.2     130     709    30005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 04-DEC   2.9    -5.8     130     814    28004           0.00            
WED 00Z 05-DEC   1.2    -6.7     129     491    28005           0.01            
WED 06Z 05-DEC  -0.7    -7.6     129      43    28004           0.01            
WED 12Z 05-DEC  -1.8    -8.8     128       0    29004           0.02            
WED 18Z 05-DEC   0.8    -9.0     128     158    29009           0.03            
THU 00Z 06-DEC  -1.0    -9.9     128       0    28007           0.00            
THU 06Z 06-DEC  -4.1    -8.8     127       0    26005           0.00            
THU 12Z 06-DEC  -5.4    -5.3     128      32    20001           0.00            
THU 18Z 06-DEC   3.6    -3.1     130     843    24004           0.00            
FRI 00Z 07-DEC   0.9    -3.1     130    1207    24004           0.00            
FRI 06Z 07-DEC   0.8    -5.1     130     893    26004           0.00            
FRI 12Z 07-DEC   0.5    -5.1     129     386    27004           0.01            
FRI 18Z 07-DEC   3.3    -6.1     130     905    28003           0.00            
SAT 00Z 08-DEC  -0.4    -1.7     130    1242    18002           0.00            
SAT 06Z 08-DEC  -2.9    -1.0     130    1118    10001           0.00            
SAT 12Z 08-DEC  -2.6    -1.5     129       2    07003           0.00            
SAT 18Z 08-DEC   3.4    -0.7     130    1012    03002           0.00            
SUN 00Z 09-DEC   0.7     1.0     131    4545    05004           0.00            
SUN 06Z 09-DEC   0.6     1.5     131    4056    08004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 09-DEC   1.2     0.0     130    3433    11008           0.02            
SUN 18Z 09-DEC  -0.5    -0.5     129    4387    08009           0.16            
MON 00Z 10-DEC  -0.3     0.4     130    4137    08009           0.37            
MON 06Z 10-DEC   0.7     0.1     131    3010    06008           0.31            
MON 12Z 10-DEC   0.5    -2.6     130    1528    04008           0.13            
MON 18Z 10-DEC  -0.4    -4.6     129      39    36004           0.49            
TUE 00Z 11-DEC  -1.1    -4.0     129       0    02004           0.51            
TUE 06Z 11-DEC  -1.7    -3.6     129       0    27002           0.17            
TUE 12Z 11-DEC  -2.9    -4.0     129      25    27003           0.00            



 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the type of storm that occasionally occurs here and when they do they are normally not in January or February.  The biggest snowfalls we've ever seen for many areas in the valley happened in November or March, outside of peak snow climatology. In elevated areas they are more prone to happen in any winter month, but for the lower areas of the valley it's either just before winter or just before spring.

I can't believe that particular run of the Euro will verify, but those kind of storms have happened before and will eventually happen again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Pushing 3' on northern plateau and a 12" in TYS.

Hopefully the Knoxville peeps will check back in.  Those are just crazy snow totals.  From an analysis standpoint, the high pressure over the top was 1-2mb stronger and pressing more than 0z.  You could see it right away on that run.  It also did not get out of the way.  Looks like the TROWAL(?) pivoted over this area.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think I may retire from the wx hobby deal after this run.  Might as well go out on top.

Screen Shot 2018-12-04 at 1.39.01 PM.png

Wow. That map is AMAZING. I would like to cash in now please. I am still expecting Knoxville to get a warm nose (just to temper my excitement and climatology), but if we could get half that I would be pleased. Looks like most of the rest of the forum can cash in as well!

On another note, I'm not getting any work done this week. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...