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Game changer for Wayne County. It’s amazing to me, this area is one of the only, non topo, holes in all of the US. Can’t wait to track those skinny bands that hammer N Rose and Hannibal. I used to drive from ROC to Oswego on 104 and Hannibal always had the most snow. Same band that gets Fulton (I think). 

Spent 2 years in SUNY Oswego- they need the stars to align just right to get hit- but when it does.... I only saw it once. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Game changer for Wayne County. It’s amazing to me, this area is one of the only, non topo, holes in all of the US. Can’t wait to track those skinny bands that hammer N Rose and Hannibal. I used to drive from ROC to Oswego on 104 and Hannibal always had the most snow. Same band that gets Fulton (I think). 

Spent 2 years in SUNY Oswego- they need the stars to align just right to get hit- but when it does.... I only saw it once. 

I went to school there for MET undergrad and experience some impressive events (2'+) and one (3'+) which led to the only class cancellation over 4 years!

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LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This time period in general looks to be active, but with no
indications at any large precip. events. This is the result of a
large (longitudinal) low amplitude upper level trough over the
northern half of the US. This trough will provide periodic bouts of
synoptic moisture and combined with cold 850Ts there will be the
potential for on and off lake effect snow through this time period.
There is some indications that a better lake effect setup will occur
for Wednesday into Thursday, and as we get closer to that time,
model agreement should become better aligned.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The euro weeklies verification score beyond week 2 has been terrible recently. It looks like any warm up will be transient. 

Yes in fact theres been a lot of chatter about multiple PV disruptions in the coming weeks and a larger one towards the middle to end of Dec which could really make winter stick around vs the ups and downs over the next 10 to 14 days.

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Quite silent in here today...so I'll try and stoke the fire a bit...the last 5 runs or so on the GFS ops have a Alberta clipped sliding just north of the great lakes and slowing up a bit between thus and Friday which shows a prolonged 12 to 18 hour window of SW winds during that time. The 850's look to be more than cold enough and the moisture has been there each run...this is reminding me of last year in early December (9th maybe?) Where the Northtowns of williamsville and Amherst Amherstpicked up between 8 and 12 inches. Something to watch at least.

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There is high confidence that we will experience below normal
temperatures through...and beyond (second weekend of Dec)...
this forecast period. The bulk of the GFS ensemble members as
well as the ECMWF deterministic run agree on a longwave trough
remaining parked over the eastern half of the continent...with a
generous number of solutions including a southward push of the
notorious polar vortex to at least 60N as we move towards mid
month. The somewhat highly amplified pattern is consistent with
the ongoing weak El Nino. In terms of precipitation...the main
concern during this period will be a relatively long period where
a west to northwest flow could support headline worthy lake snows
in the typical snowbelts
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There is high confidence that we will experience below normaltemperatures through...and beyond (second weekend of Dec)...this forecast period. The bulk of the GFS ensemble members aswell as the ECMWF deterministic run agree on a longwave troughremaining parked over the eastern half of the continent...with agenerous number of solutions including a southward push of thenotorious polar vortex to at least 60N as we move towards midmonth. The somewhat highly amplified pattern is consistent withthe ongoing weak El Nino. In terms of precipitation...the mainconcern during this period will be a relatively long period wherea west to northwest flow could support headline worthy lake snowsin the typical snowbelts

Once again their focusing on a W-WNW flow starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday but this time its plenty cold at all levels of the BL, with 850's down to about -12C to -15C!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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40 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Went up to Oswego today and it felt like the Twilight zone because there was snow up until about 3 miles from Oswego city, then once inside the City, there wasnt a flake of snow in the air, or otg,, weird!

 

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What a difference between the lake shore areas and inland parts of Oswego county this month.

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