CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yeah, Euro had the band up in Ottawa almost, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Snowing quite heavily under some of these returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: It will be a quick hitter but could pack a punch.. Clear cave by the euro as the gfs has been showing this for a couple days now.. That is perfect for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lake Erie is 1 degree above normal after the well below normal November we had, pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I don't think I've ever seen the whole US without some kind of adv or warning of some kind, weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 My bad, Frost Adv for Coastal OR, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lake Erie is 1 degree above normal after the well below normal November we had, pretty remarkable. I know this is at a different location but a strange 5 degree temp rise on Saturday... maybe some upwelling?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: My bad, Frost Adv for Coastal OR, lol! ...and a whole bunch of flood warnings and.advisories...but it is hard to see those. I too thought it looked rather boring with no pretty colors all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ok seeing this just really bummed me out... why would they stop these charts!!!!!????. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I know this is at a different location but a strange 5 degree temp rise on Saturday... maybe some upwelling? . It was 60 and sunny all day Sunday, that would definitely heat up a relatively cold lake quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Picked up a thick coating today.. I’m down in the southern part of the county, it’s snowing pretty good.. The 18z euro was very similar to 12z regarding wed-fri.. Another perk of weather models.com, 6/18z Euro.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It was 60 and sunny all day Sunday, that would definitely heat up a relatively cold lake quickly. Yeah but the temp jump notes here took place midday on Saturday the 1st... 100% cloud cover and temp only in mid 30s... Sunday the 2nd saw the sun and temps in the mid 50s... Strange.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I know this is at a different location but a strange 5 degree temp rise on Saturday... maybe some upwelling? . Very strange since I just looked and the official water temp at buffalo and it has been 43 since Nov 27th and today went to 44. The temp is also measured at 30 feet so I have no idea what is going on with that graph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Some nice improvements on the NAM.. Take it fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 One in a million shot? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I would give it about those odds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hmmm... let’s see what picture the high res paints today once this comes into range...AM Discussion from BUF...Flow will becomesouthwest Wednesday night and lake effect snow showers will movenorthward into the Buffalo Southtowns and the northern Tug Hillregion. Moisture will eat away at mid-level dry air overnight andthe lake effect bands will intensify into Thrusday morning. Lowtemperatures will fall into the low to mid 20`s.As we move into Thursday, snow showers will continue to ramp up inintensity east of both lakes as the clipper moves into Quebec andmoisture and ascent increase. Southwest flow will tap into the longfetch of both lakes and snow will likely become heavy at timesacross the Buffalo metro and Northtowns and northern Tug Hillthrough the morning. Winds become westerly by Thursday afternoon andsnow showers will sag southward moving into the Southtowns andwestern Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. Snow will lose someintensity downwind of Lake Erie as it loses the long fetch of thelake. Temperatures will only climb a few degrees Thursday with highsin the low to mid 30`s. Moderate accumulations are expected Thursdayespecially east of Lake Ontario. The wind shift will limit time forlocations to be under the influence east of Lake Erie. The Tug Hillregion will see the longest duration of heavy snow Thursday.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 KBGM for Friday However, the flow will become westerly as the trough approaches later in the afternoon Thursday. Frontal passage should be Thursday night with a quick 1-3 inches of snow possible. The air mass behind the front will be rather cold...with 850mb temps -13 to -18 deg C and at least a 6-12 hr period of steady/unidirectional nw winds. Model soundings indicate the potential for a deep (10k ft) boundary layer as well. All of these parameters point to a period of potentially significant lake effect snow into central NY Friday into the weekend. Still several days out, so will need to keep an eye on this time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Hmmm... let’s see what picture the high res paints today once this comes into range... AM Discussion from BUF... Flow will become southwest Wednesday night and lake effect snow showers will move northward into the Buffalo Southtowns and the northern Tug Hill region. Moisture will eat away at mid-level dry air overnight and the lake effect bands will intensify into Thrusday morning. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20`s. As we move into Thursday, snow showers will continue to ramp up in intensity east of both lakes as the clipper moves into Quebec and moisture and ascent increase. Southwest flow will tap into the long fetch of both lakes and snow will likely become heavy at times across the Buffalo metro and Northtowns and northern Tug Hill through the morning. Winds become westerly by Thursday afternoon and snow showers will sag southward moving into the Southtowns and western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. Snow will lose some intensity downwind of Lake Erie as it loses the long fetch of the lake. Temperatures will only climb a few degrees Thursday with highs in the low to mid 30`s. Moderate accumulations are expected Thursday especially east of Lake Ontario. The wind shift will limit time for locations to be under the influence east of Lake Erie. The Tug Hill region will see the longest duration of heavy snow Thursday. . Yeah, it's starting to look better for Thursday. Band will be moving north and south pretty quickly so we will not see any big totals. But it should be strong (1-2" an hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 You got the Euro wolf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here is the 6z.. Euro continues to go up and down imby but for the most part likes more wsw/sw off Ontario.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Going to be a close call here between some nuisance snows or something decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wow that's a foot of snow for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Beautiful scenario for you kbuf guys, granted it's coming from the ukmet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Beautiful scenario for you kbuf guys, granted it's coming from the ukmet.. Isn't the UK the second most accurate model? Not usually used for mesoscale, but it performs very well synoptically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Well whatever accumulation the Niagara Frontier receives it will be the last substantial one for a while. Hopefully the late December period has a colder, snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Seems like a reasonable forecast for the most part.. We will have to "dink and dunk" are way to a decent december... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 New hi res NAM drops a foot right over KBUF! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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