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John1122

11/14-15 Early Season Westside Winter Event

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Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. 

Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. 

There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.

Quote
For tonight through Thursday...increased confidence with models
bringing an early winter storm across the Midsouth. Temperatures
tonight will fall to below freezing for all except the far
southeastern counties. A developing upper low seen in North Texas
will begin pulling moisture seen just south of the I-20 corridor
northward. Light sleet and/or snow mixed with patchy freezing
precipitation may erupt over portions of North Mississippi just
before sunrise. Then chances will spread north and west through
noon tomorrow to points north of the I-40 corridor...meanwhile
surface temperatures will climb very little. To note models agree
that 925mb and 850mb temperatures never warm above freezing over
the next 48 hours across the western half of the CWA.
Accumulations of this wintry mix are expected to remain light as
the ice nucleation zone stays somewhat dry (below 80% RH). By
evening the aforementioned upper low will shift into eastern
Arkansas with rapid frontogenesis developing/deformation zone
forming across the northern counties to the Lower Ohio Valley. A
band of moderate snowfall may set up across the Bootheel of
Missouri into Obion County Tennessee producing upwards of 3 to 4
inches. Lighter accumulating snowfall associated with this band may
extend as far south as the northwest side of the Memphis metro.

 

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. 

Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. 

There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.

 

  Thanks for making a thread John, I didn’t want to do it myself cause I didn’t want to jinx it! Haha.  Looks like it’s gonna be an interesting couple of days.  It’s definitely an impressive event, I’m anxious to see how it all pans out.

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14 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

  Thanks for making a thread John, I didn’t want to do it myself cause I didn’t want to jinx it! Haha.  Looks like it’s gonna be an interesting couple of days.  It’s definitely an impressive event, I’m anxious to see how it all pans out.

Man, I hear that.  I am the same way.   LOL.  Good luck to you all.  Always a good thing to have the first winter threat thread posted in November.  I hope the last one is in April before we shut it down for the season!!! 

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RGEM and ECMWF fwtw aren't budging with the freezing rain way up in SWVA. All other models go with the typical Tazewell-Marion river valley boundary with the freezing rain. Knowing my micro-climate better than a weather model though the chances are it's going be 34 in a downpour all night thankfully. Anyway I'll shut up... back to the main event of the forum out west! ;)

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42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, I hear that.  I am the same way.   LOL.  Good luck to you all.  Always a good thing to have the first winter threat thread posted in November.  I hope the last one is in April before we shut it down for the season!!! 

  Thanks bud, hopefully this is an early sign of things to come this winter!

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I remember the days of yore and big snows in this area in November.  Just curious, had that tropical system not been in the sw Atlantic,  whether the trough would be situated farther East.  Saw that alluded to in another forum.

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The Euro/GFS backed off quite a bit on the amounts of snow in the western areas, as did the NAM. The NAM has a massive ice storm now, and further east than before. 

These are the wobbles I was talking about, small ones have big consequences on the heavy snow axis.

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A little concerned about ice for Blunderstorm this morning and parts of SW VA.  Looks like the cold air has done quite a good job filtering into some parts of SW VA.  Some places are even colder than areas east of the Blue Ridge I'd expect to be colder during normal cold air damming.  If the Wundergorund maps can be believed, it's 28 near Wise, and 33 at Nickelsville, and I even saw a 35 near Mt. Carmel, TN.  The 3k NAM, RGEM, and Hi Res RGEM want to keep cold air draining in overnight and pushes the freezing rain toward the TN border. All this may be mitigated by the fact that it's November, the ground is relatively warm, and most of the precip. will start to move in after a full day of insolation. Everything about this set up is anomalous for Nov., so I guess we wait and see. 

In terms of snow, even though the model trends John mentioned are apparent for western forum areas (don't want to sound discouraging and as John mentioned still think it's a wait and see thing with the wobbles), there is also a trend for the upper low to hit a wall in its NE movement near Paducah, KY and swing much more easterly and cruise across the TN/KY line.  Curious to see if the illusive Rain to Snow can still sneak in, if not for me, at least for northern plateau, southern KY, and TRI. 

Some good looking bands developing with occasional 30 dbz reflectivity in S. Arkansas this morning. Let's see where they go. 

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6 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro/GFS backed off quite a bit on the amounts of snow in the western areas, as did the NAM. The NAM has a massive ice storm now, and further east than before. 

These are the wobbles I was talking about, small ones have big consequences on the heavy snow axis.

Definitely some wobbles, snow/rain is supposed to push in right around 1 here in hardeman county.  I’m right on the the snowy side of the rain snow line so maybe I can score a few more hours of heavier precip while I’m close to that line.  Overall, we will just have to see how the day pans out, maybe we can sneak in some good ratios with what does fall as snow today.  I’ll keep you guys updated throughout the day,  hopefully I’ll have some picture worthy moments to share with everyone!!!

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13 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

White Bluff is literally on the B/C dividing line for accumulating snow. Basically a coin flip shot for me. Not getting any hopes up past the mere sight of flakes flying, but it's tough to be 45 minutes from the A zone. May chase over to Paris after work. Will keep you posted and take pics if necessary.

OHX-Situation-Report-SitRep.pdf-Mozilla-Firefox-2018-11-13-18.53.15.png

Paris has been in the snow zone the past two years it seems!  May be worth the drive knowing how they get bombed most of the time.  I think I’m squarely In the B Zone for this event.  Hopefully we can all score a good snow!!  Who knows maybe Mother Nature can throw us a bone today!!!

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

A little concerned about ice for Blunderstorm this morning and parts of SW VA.  Looks like the cold air has done quite a good job filtering into some parts of SW VA.  Some places are even colder than areas east of the Blue Ridge I'd expect to be colder during normal cold air damming.  If the Wundergorund maps can be believed, it's 28 near Wise, and 33 at Nickelsville, and I even saw a 35 near Mt. Carmel, TN.  The 3k NAM, RGEM, and Hi Res RGEM want to keep cold air draining in overnight and pushes the freezing rain toward the TN border. All this may be mitigated by the fact that it's November, the ground is relatively warm, and most of the precip. will start to move in after a full day of insolation. Everything about this set up is anomalous for Nov., so I guess we wait and see. 

In terms of snow, even though the model trends John mentioned are apparent for western forum areas (don't want to sound discouraging and as John mentioned still think it's a wait and see thing with the wobbles), there is also a trend for the upper low to hit a wall in its NE movement near Paducah, KY and swing much more easterly and cruise across the TN/KY line.  Curious to see if the illusive Rain to Snow can still sneak in, if not for me, at least for northern plateau, southern KY, and TRI. 

Some good looking bands developing with occasional 30 dbz reflectivity in S. Arkansas this morning. Let's see where they go. 

It will be interesting to see for areas just to the east of Marion.  I was just looking at an animated temp map for the past hour or so(highly recommend getting a wx app w that feature for anyone watching events like this), and you can see the downsloping warmth build against the west side of the Apps.  Who knows though in mountain valleys.  Sometimes cold can get trapped.  It is not warm here right now...Kingsport rarely gets the downslope from the Apps side, just when we are in the lee of approaching weather in the northwest.  Looks like a slug of mixed precip is moving into west TN, just east of Memphis.  Hope our folks out west can score some snow!  Our eastern folks will have to be patient as I think we all get something from Santa this winter.

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

A little concerned about ice for Blunderstorm this morning and parts of SW VA.  Looks like the cold air has done quite a good job filtering into some parts of SW VA.  Some places are even colder than areas east of the Blue Ridge I'd expect to be colder during normal cold air damming.  If the Wundergorund maps can be believed, it's 28 near Wise, and 33 at Nickelsville, and I even saw a 35 near Mt. Carmel, TN.  The 3k NAM, RGEM, and Hi Res RGEM want to keep cold air draining in overnight and pushes the freezing rain toward the TN border. All this may be mitigated by the fact that it's November, the ground is relatively warm, and most of the precip. will start to move in after a full day of insolation. Everything about this set up is anomalous for Nov., so I guess we wait and see. 

In terms of snow, even though the model trends John mentioned are apparent for western forum areas (don't want to sound discouraging and as John mentioned still think it's a wait and see thing with the wobbles), there is also a trend for the upper low to hit a wall in its NE movement near Paducah, KY and swing much more easterly and cruise across the TN/KY line.  Curious to see if the illusive Rain to Snow can still sneak in, if not for me, at least for northern plateau, southern KY, and TRI. 

Some good looking bands developing with occasional 30 dbz reflectivity in S. Arkansas this morning. Let's see where they go. 

I'm now under a Winter Weather Advisory and live just a few miles from the border of Tazewell county currently under a winter storm warning. The RDPS/RGEM is painting an icy picture up here and some of the others aren't far behind. If I do get a glaze of Ice I'll be sure to send pictures but I'm not rooting for it. What I am hoping for is maybe...just maybe a solid hour of light snowfall on the back end of this storm.  I'm not very patient with winter.

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Just now, BlunderStorm said:

I'm now under a Winter Weather Advisory and live just a few miles from the border of Tazewell county currently under a winter storm warning. The RDPS/RGEM is painting an icy picture up here and some of the others aren't far behind. If I do get a glaze of Ice I'll be sure to send pictures but I'm not rooting for it. What I am hoping for is maybe...just maybe a solid hour of light snowfall on the back end of this storm.  I'm not very patient with winter.

  Stay safe buddy, I wouldn’t want to drive on icy roads up in your neck of the woods that’s for sure.  I’m rooting for you to score with the snow.  Should be an interesting day as this all develops.  

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10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

  Stay safe buddy, I wouldn’t want to drive on icy roads up in your neck of the woods that’s for sure.  I’m rooting for you to score with the snow.  Should be an interesting day as this all develops.  

 The roads around here can get especially treacherous during inclement weather. Still being in high school I'm not exactly the best driver in the world and my experience driving in snow is limited to once or twice last winter. Needless to say I shouldn't and won't be out on the road and honestly nobody else should tonight up this way. I'm hoping my school calls a 2 hour delay tomorrow. The last thing we need is a bus skidding on an ice rink. I wish you the same in terms of snow and I know it would be more special for you. Anytime I see snow on the radar down in dixie I smile.

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13 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

 The roads around here can get especially treacherous during inclement weather. Still being in high school I'm not exactly the best driver in the world and my experience driving in snow is limited to once or twice last winter. Needless to say I shouldn't and won't be out on the road and honestly nobody else should tonight up this way. I'm hoping my school calls a 2 hour delay tomorrow. The last thing we need is a bus skidding on an ice rink. I wish you the same in terms of snow and I know it would be more special for you. Anytime I see snow on the radar down in dixie I smile.

  The best advice my dad ever gave me about driving in snow/ice, “Always maintain a consistent speed, if you can do that you can make it just about anywhere.” Most people smash the gas and it gets their tires spinning, then their screwed.  He told me this as we went up a huge snow/ice covered hill in a Volkswagen Jetta, 4x4 trucks were lining the hill from getting stuck all day, as we crusaded by. lol.  Keep your speed slow and consistent and you’d be surprised where you can make it.  I with you though, probably need to stay off the roads up near the mountains when it’s icy.  Hopefully you all can get a snow day or at the very least a late start to the school day.

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10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

  The best advice my dad ever gave me about driving in snow/ice, “Always maintain a consistent speed, if you can do that you can make it just about anywhere.” Most people smash the gas and it gets their tires spinning, then their screwed.  He told me this as we went up a huge snow/ice covered hill in a Volkswagen Jetta, 4x4 trucks were lining the hill from getting stuck all day, as we crusaded by. lol.  Keep your speed slow and consistent and you’d be surprised where you can make it.  I with you though, probably need to stay off the roads up near the mountains when it’s icy.  Hopefully you all can get a snow day or at the very least a late start to the school day.

That is the truth.  The trick to driving on snow is don't go too fast, don't spin your tires, and give yourself plenty of room.   Ice....no good advice other than - gravity will always win.

Blunderstorm, you might need to go on and get your met degree after HS.  Flash is already working on getting his red tag... It is pretty cool how many folks on this forum started in HS and went on to get degrees.  I think the SE forum has several folks.

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Well, technically, I had to punt to the spring due to family business matters/laying a contingency plan foundation (long story short). Come January...game on. 

Hope everything’s is good with you and your family Flash.  We’ve all got faith in you with your school stuff!!  Have you noticed with the Nam 32k that the storm seems like it slows down around hours 9-12.  Almost like once that LP meets the precip then the system slows down a bit it looks like.  What do you think?  @Carvers Gap what do you think too?  Side note-  Looks like precip should start to trickle into my area around 3 to 4pm.

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Sooo...the 12z GFS is a tad further east with the heaviest snow band compared to the NAM/HRRR. I assume I should yield to short-term guidance...although the 12z GFS bodes well for my plans to hit up Paris later today. Wherever the sharp cut off sets up...it will be fun to drive through (applying AMZ's wisdom above).

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

It’s crazy how they seem to be in a bullseye area everytime, see my above message and see if you think that has anything to do with the totals their being So high.

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I hope you guys/gals over in west and MAYBE parts of western middle TN can score some wintry stuff from this.  What a great way to start the winter season, even if it turns out to be just some token flakes.  Something tells me with the preferred indexes heading in a very positive direction this won't be the only opportunity over the next three weeks or so!  Good luck everyone!

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49 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Starting to see some sleet accumulate in the grass,  I had to make the pic smaller so I could upload it so I’m sorry if you all have to squint to see it!  lol 

84A02CFC-2751-41EE-BE51-036D61D30B62.jpeg

Status report? A light drizzle has started over here. Don't know the exact temp but it's probably 40ish. EDIT: Just before I posted! :lol:

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Just now, BlunderStorm said:

Status report? A light drizzle has started over here. Don't know the exact temp but it's probably 40ish.

Starting to see accumulation now.  Turned over to all snow about 30 minutes ago.  Light to moderate at times as of right now.   Flakes are fairly large.

948EF090-2119-4DA4-82E2-1EBEAA5F3AFE.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Starting to see accumulation now.  Turned over to all snow about 30 minutes ago.  Light to moderate at times as of right now.   Flakes are fairly large.

948EF090-2119-4DA4-82E2-1EBEAA5F3AFE.jpeg

Awesome update AMZ!  Jealous, but excited to see anyone in the forum especially this early in the game to be getting accumulation!  Hopefully its a taste of whats really to come in winter.

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