mattny88 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Wsyr news channel 9 snowfall map..usually this local TV new station is accurate with their forecast..your guys thoughts on the snow amounts and this snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, mattny88 said: Wsyr news channel 9 snowfall map..usually this local TV new station is accurate with their forecast..your guys thoughts on the snow amounts and this snow map looks good as a broad brush. Where any banding sets up and how the leading WAA thump plays out will be critical. BGM area will also have the warm nose to deal with which could hold down snow totals a couple/few inches. Or not. I don't think we have any dry slot concerns with this system, mercifully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, Syrmax said: looks good as a broad brush. Where any banding sets up and how the leading WAA thump plays out will be critical. BGM area will also have the warm nose to deal with which could hold down snow totals a couple/few inches. Or not. I don't think we have any dry slot concerns with this system, mercifully. So in other words west of the Genesee River picks up a trace if snow??? This I have to see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Talk about sh*t luck lol The front in upper midwest will kick our system east just before the heaviest precip can make it north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 It’s looking tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 RGEM would be the nightmare scenario. Is it possible? Yep. Likely? I hope not. It’s a moisture rich system. Even if we bust I think the thruway corridor ends up with 2-4”. SE finger lakes still look the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So in other words west of the Genesee River picks up a trace if snow??? This I have to see... That map, like others, is focused on one area. The mapmakers never pay attention outside their specific area of concern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The Canadian models, after being bullish on Rochester all week, have said NOPE right at game time. Ugh. This could be a tough one guys. I think Wolfie is right about the kicker. Those down state bastards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Likely because Don Paul left. Still like Mike Cejka he has a very great on air personality but I agree some of the forecasting on WIVB is head scratching. Channel 7 actually has the best team of mets I believe. Cejka is good on TV but very weak on interpretive skills. Pretty much always just picks a model and does a verbatim forecast. Santos and Baglini are both smart and knowledgeable but moving on from Don Paul meant WIVB gave up years and years of pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The Canadian models, after being bullish on Rochester all week, have said NOPE right at game time. Ugh. This could be a tough one guys. I think Wolfie is right about the kicker. Those down state bastards. It’s mid November. If ROC and BUF miss out on this one, we have 4-5 months to make up for it. That November 2016 storm that brought 8-20 inches to most of western and central NY gave zero to Buffalo, anything we get this early is just bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Tough system for sure for us Western folks. Any snow that does fall will be quite heavy and dense with the crappy dendritic growth so even 3 inches will warrant a quick pass with the snowblower. While this isnt a great system, it's still a very early start to the season. Buf - 2" ROC - 3" Syr - 6" Bristol Hills - 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 You'l be fine up in Oswego Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Glad ppl are mentioning the fact its only the 14th of NOV, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Delta, you’re really pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Delta, you’re really pessimistic Realistic not pessamistic, never fails, lol, but the good thing is, is that he squashes all the wish casting that happens, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, rochesterdave said: Delta, you’re really pessimistic Seriously?, I always feel pretty even keeled compared to others around here....... This storm is a close call for us. My numbers are mostly in line with the forecasts and things are trending East a bit. We need that surface low to redevelop and hang around in NJ which is a gamble, it could develop 100 miles East and in that case WNY is in trouble. More important is the snow type. I think the ratios will be crazy low with this storm so even if we get a lot of precip, it just won't stack up very high. Super dense, grainy, gritty stuff. 3 inches sounds fantastic to me to be honest. Just give me something to snowblow and drive around in tonight. Not expecting a blockbuster at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 It really depends where banding sets up.. My eyes will be glued to the HRRR as we getting into closer range.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Nah Delta, your a necessary balance. I like your steady nature. And you always back it up. Guys, I thought we were only gonna let Freak out of his cage for the big ones? Lol. I actually love him the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Here's a photo from november 12th, 2012 when i lived in nj 15 miles from the the atlantic ocean, ten days after a major hurricane with temps in the 50s leading up to the event..lol Heavy precip overcame all that, with over a foot falling.. I know its still "only" mid november but we do avg more snow this month then nyc does in jan..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 BTW that is my all time fav surprise storm, forecast was for upper 30's and rain, all the snow was supposed to be confined to west of 95.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I gotta go back and relearn how to read meteograms/ soundings. I figured it out last winter but have since completely lost any notion of how they work. Syrmax and Freak are on that stuff. Our dowstate friends are getting a taste of your surprise wolfie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 To add even more confusion to the mix, the new GFS came in strong. Pushed the big totals a bit NW. If I were to go with my gut on this one, I’d slash totals for BUF and ROC. BUF is above 32* at 800 -Sleet is gonna be a problem too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here's a photo from november 12th, 2012 when i lived in nj 15 miles from the the atlantic ocean, ten days after a major hurricane with temps in the 50s leading up to the event..lol Heavy precip overcame all that, with over a foot falling.. I know its still "only" mid november but we do avg more snow this month then nyc does in jan..lol You were there for Sandy? How was that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Eastern L.Onatrio region has more cold to play with, at least at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 It was pretty scary at times lol Worst part was losing power for so long, many people had no power when the "son of sandy" hit.. I lived about 50 miles NE of landfall, max gust were probably 80-90 mph..The hurricane wind field was really spread out.. We didn't lose to many trees since a microburst destroyed most of them the previous summer lol Flooding wasn't an issue as i was 15 miles inland with minimal rainfall (1"-2") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It was pretty scary at times lol Worst part was losing power for so long, many people had no power when the "son of sandy" hit.. I lived about 50 miles NE of landfall, max gust were probably 80-90 mph..The hurricane wind field was really spread out.. We didn't lose to many trees since a microburst destroyed most of them the previous summer lol Flooding wasn't an issue as i was 15 miles inland with minimal rainfall (1"-2") That’s awesome, I’ve yet to go through a hurricane. It’s on my short bucketlist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 What a waste lol If its anything decent i may have to take a 5-7 mile ride east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Latest Hrrr through 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Big thump of moisture heading our way. Still sitting at 27 degrees here. Seems to be colder than expected? with snow totals busting high down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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