CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I guess one of them should be correct, when all is said and done, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Chilly night tonight, especially to the north/east..Down to 19 imby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM is coming in east and a bit suppressed. Not huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I jumped the gun. NAM is just a bit slower getting precip N. Actually looks great. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Was going to say best it's looked in past 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Hey Dave. Good to see you back. Do you ever pop in during summer. It's so dead here in summer. Was nice to se roc had 2.6 inches today. 3.1 for year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM looking good has this all snow around BUF now only a brief mix along shoreline south of city... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I jumped the gun. NAM is just a bit slower getting precip N. Actually looks great. Lol 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Was going to say best it's looked in past 24 hours Yeah it’s the NAM but verbatim BUF to SYR all sees 5-8”. Best run yet for BUF. If you look at the actual position of the low it is west compared to 18z run. I do believe it’s overdone and do believe for the lake plain the BL is going to be too marginal to accumulate efficiently. I’m sticking with my call of less than 3” at BUF but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if we dropped an extra degree or two and picked up 5-6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 to 12 all of western ny on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Nam total preicp.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Has temps in upper 20s during most of precip. Warming to mid 30s after precip ends in afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM insistent on warm layer getting to Bgm at 700mb and 850mb for either mixing or change to sleet for several hour period in evening. Thinking around 6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Here is the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Like roc for a solid 6 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Like roc for a solid 6 inches We already know Tim, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Not a limp 6 but solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Nam total snow 00Z valid Friday 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM doesn’t know what to do with the low between hours 24-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nam total snow 00Z valid Friday 15Z I tend to think that is overdone in a lot of spots and likely counting sleet as 10:1 snow esp east of the appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Somewhere in SENY, someone see's over a foot, easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 0z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: I tend to think that is overdone in a lot of spots and likely counting sleet as 10:1 snow esp east of the appalachians Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 My 1st guess - subject to frequent revision ala DT (first call, preliminary call, last call) with limiting factor in (.) ALB 5" (HRV Torch) BUF 3" (Too west) ROC 4.5" (Snow growth) FUL 5" (Snow growth) SYR 6.5" (Sun angle...just Too warm) BGM 7.5" (Warm nose) SCR 4 5" (Snow Death Valley) WTR 4" (Too North) ITH 5.5" (Seriously?) YYZ 3" (Too Canada) Jackpots: higher elevations >1000' of CPA (and wherever JB lives), on NE towards Catskills, Mountains of VT/NH and...high peaks of NE CT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM comes in hot and RGEM backs off. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Models don't do well with banding..The rgem track hasn't changed much but the banding has.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Not much difference, just enough to matter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GFS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now