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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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NWS hourly forecast has Asheville above freezing until 8 pm, BUT it currently states we should be at 35 degrees right now and we are at 40. No bueno. But it's going to be a long storm so I will just be patient.

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14 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

So it’s elevation dependent at the moment. Looks like 3000’+ is where you need to be to see snow.  French Broad Valley just too warm at the moment. Low 40s!  Supports rain as HRRR indicated. Problem is, HRRR keeps AVL all rain until 9pm. Further cuts snow totals.  GSP afternoon update will be difficult to say the least. But really need to think about reducing totals...perhaps dramatically.

They updated the warning shortly before 11 and increased totals here. But I am in a more favorable CAD area being east of the escarpment 

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31 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

NWS hourly forecast has Asheville above freezing until 8 pm, BUT it currently states we should be at 35 degrees right now and we are at 40. No bueno. But it's going to be a long storm so I will just be patient.

Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share.

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share.

Hate to say it and you’ve seen it before but the French broad river valley is not the ideal place when it’s a CAD situation. The warmer air just tunnels down that valley. 

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share.

21 years here in Asheville, and yep, seen plenty of screw jobs. But reading the GSP forecast discussion and looking at the hourly forecast, they seem to account for this somewhat, and it won't be until tonight when the real action starts. Crossing my fingers.

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3 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Uh oh. 3km NAM has 4-6 hours of sleet for Asheville overnight tonight, during the period of best forcing and maximum moisture. Bye bye snow totals. Time to sound the alarms.  This is not an epic event or once in a generation event.  Oh and 12Z NAM cuts QPF by 40-50% as well.  Damn.

 

A181F2A1-E7ED-462B-9323-DE2D6665A750.png

sorry HT, just disappointed I guess, didn't won't to hear that, very let down, I do appreciate your input muchly.

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18 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Hate to say it and you’ve seen it before but the French broad river valley is not the ideal place when it’s a CAD situation. The warmer air just tunnels down that valley. 

True, but we have overcome that many a storm to have higher totals than anybody else. So, your point is valid, but it is definitely not always the case. But, also, I guess we haven't prime time for when the snow was to be the best anyway. Hopefully, you, and us and everybody else cashes in eventually.

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HRRR still looking good, keeping the NAM on the back burner for this one. I would be more worried except for the fact it was absolutely atrocious out in the west, so I'm not weighing on it as much...yet.

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18 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

21 years here in Asheville, and yep, seen plenty of screw jobs. But reading the GSP forecast discussion and looking at the hourly forecast, they seem to account for this somewhat, and it won't be until tonight when the real action starts. Crossing my fingers.

Very true. I haven't given up hope yet. I got 54 years here in Asheville, lol, so I have seen so many different ways to get screwed, it would make most people blush.  But, you make a great point. Patience is a good idea.

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hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png

This looks good for everyone in our subforum. The only thing I don't like is how light the precip looks in the mountains, not sure how well upslope and topography reads on the HRRR?

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

True, but we have overcome that many a storm to have higher totals than anybody else. So, your point is valid, but it is definitely not always the case. But, also, I guess we haven't prime time for when the snow was to be the best anyway. Hopefully, you, and us and everybody else cashes in eventually.

Yes sir. Best of luck to everyone. Let’s bring it home. 

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Hold out hope? Old fort may jackpot. The snow was never forecasted to begin here until after dark. Patience 

Patience is virtue not many possess during storms! Haha. 

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1 minute ago, westmc9th said:

Patience is virtue not many possess during storms! Haha. 

Reminds me of last year when it took hours to get snow up to Boone and Ashe, learned my lesson for this time lol

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12k NAM with 2 ft for Boone still at a 10:1 ratio....given ratios during the height will be higher than that. *As I mentioned earlier, still discounting the 12z Nam slightly altogether*

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13 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Euro is bad news folks.  It also has the dreaded warm nose all the way to Hickory. +1 at 700mb. Damn. 

AVL liquid on Euro is 1.90" and we lose some to sleet/rain.  First run in 5 days to show reduced snow amounts.

Not good trends today.

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