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Carvers Gap

Fall Observations 2018

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I just realized that we need an observation thread for Fall.  With the remnants of Flo approaching, though it might not be a bad idea to get the Fall obs thread rolling.  What is left of Florence looks like it might be a rainmaker(within norms) for the eastern Valley.  Wind advisories are hoisted for the mountains.  Western NC is under a flood watch.  Rivers that flow from NC such as the French Broad and Nolichucky may flood in TN due to rain in North Carolina.

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Started off pretty sunny this morning but has gotten cloudy over the afternoon. 18z HRRR run had us getting about .25-.75" of rain tomorrow. Nothing major, haven't gotten some good rain in about a week.

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Today with the exception of the early morning it has been solidly overcast with no apparent rain. Unfortunately for me my weather station for whatever reason stopped taking rain totals a few days ago so I have no way of knowing how much rain I receive from Flo.

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Update: I was finally able to find the right size screw driver and take the weather station apart. Thankfully the rain gauge was just jammed and there were no electronics issues. So after a week of lost rainfall obs it's back to normal.

Now witness the observations of this fully calibrated and operational weather station! 

 

 

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1 hour ago, BlunderStorm said:

Update: I was finally able to find the right size screw driver and take the weather station apart. Thankfully the rain gauge was just jammed and there were no electronics issues. So after a week of lost rainfall obs it's back to normal.

Now witness the observations of this fully calibrated and operational weather station! 

 

 

LOL...no rain gauge needed here the last week...0.0"... Parts of our Southern counties are in a moderate drought

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Ok, I think we finally have the a good trajectory for the eastern great valley: https://imgur.com/a/VlJ1UbS (end of the loop)

Also, an image indicating what I was trying to figure out in the Florence thread. Sure it could be just a random band, but consider what the precip. is doing in Monroe county and southward as the loop goes on...

2018-09-16_17-51-33.jpg

At this time, the 850 low looks to be over or near Hartwell, GA.   I know this is kinda random and rather insignificant stuff for now, but curious for implications for the flow for future winter storms. 

925mb flow, right down the valley:

2018-09-16_18-04-40.jpg

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After Florence, my yard has really dried out.  We got a shower last evening and looks like a more prolonged rain event during the next 48 hours.  With as much rain as we have had, it is amazing how quickly my yard dries out.  Must be the heat.

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Best rains we've seen here in some time.I don't have no gauge .Estimating close to 3" the last 24 hrs and more to come.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018
 
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Sep 24 2018 - 12Z Mon Sep 24 2018 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

Lower Mississippi Valley across TN into the central Appalachians...
A frontal boundary is expected to remain stationary this forecast 
period from the ArkLaTex region...east northeastward across the 
Lower Mississippi...Lower Tennessee river valleys...southern 
Appalachians and into the Southern Mid-Atlantic.  PW values along 
and to the north of this front will remain much above average this 
period -- 2-2.2" currently in the lower Tennessee Valley which is 
roughly two standard deviations above the mean.  A series of 
shortwaves in the west southwest flow aloft, including one in 
northwest TN at this time, will support favorable regions of upper 
difluence along and north of this boundary...accentuating lift in 
the anomalous PW axis.  An amplifying wave tonight into early 
Monday re-focuses the heaviest precip farther northward across 
TN...the Lower MS Valley, and towards the lower OH Valley region.  
In these areas...hourly rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are 
possible with localized runoff issues as FFG values are relatively 
low per recent heavy rains.  Per coordination with OHX/Nashville 
TN, elevated the risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding this 
afternoon to moderate for Middle Tennessee.  Marginal and slight 
risk areas were shifted somewhat based on recent radar trends 
across MS, LA, and eastern TX. 
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3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Seeing some reports of flash flooding toward Middle TN on twitter:

 

Don’t doubt it,  I’ve got a 1 acre 5ft deep pond in my yard right now.  (It doesn’t hold water anymore but it always fills up with the big rains).   We’ve picked up 3-4 inches over the past 24-36 hours. 

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38 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Getting some reports from friends in Roane County and south of Flash Flooding and MRX has a warning out, but man, that slug of moisture over AL looks ugly for some of these areas. 

Since last Wednesday there has been some decent rains in parts of the Valley,through 4AM,,this morning:

 

..TENNESSEE...
JACKSON 5.6 NE                       10.40                    
COLUMBIA 1.2 SSW                      8.49                    
SPRING HILL                           8.07                    
HOHENWALD 2.2 SE                      7.66                    
GREENFIELD                            7.29                    
BELLS 2.5 NE                          7.06                    
MURFREESBORO 7.9 NNW                  7.01                    
HUNTINGDON CARROLL COUNTY ARPT        6.95                    
SPRING HILL 2.8 ENE                   6.65                    
LAWRENCEBURG 5.2 SW                   6.45                    
MT PLEASANT                           6.43                    
LEWISBURG 8 WNW                       6.40                    
CENTERVILLE 7 ENE                     6.32                    
WAYNESBORO                            6.12                    
DAYTON                                5.55                    
CHATTANOOGA/LOVELL FIELD              4.10                    
NASHVILLE INTL ARPT                   3.79                    

 

 

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Thankful for the cooler mornings when out running...those abnormally warm fall mornings were getting old quick.  Still have a couple of weeks before true fall temps arrive. Looks like cold air will dump into the west over the next couple of weeks and then work eastward...TBD just how far south it gets.

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I believe it was the warmest September on record at Crossville. The first September in almost 100 years that didn't get below 60 at Knoxville. The warm/muggy low temperatures are what drove the records. I haven't been in the 40s yet, which is very rare for September, I've only been down to 54.

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18 hours ago, John1122 said:

I believe it was the warmest September on record at Crossville. The first September in almost 100 years that didn't get below 60 at Knoxville. The warm/muggy low temperatures are what drove the records. I haven't been in the 40s yet, which is very rare for September, I've only been down to 54.

Indeed, it is impressive how warm it has been.  Mornings have been very warm for sure.  Our daytime highs have even been pretty warm at TRI...very summer like.  I think the successive amount of warmth is what is most impressive.  September finished w the average temp warmer than August.  Our daytime highs also finished a hair above for August as well.  I am not sure how often that has happened...but I have to think that September finishing warmer than August it exceedingly rare.  Thankfully, it has not been dry.  I never want to experience again a fall like the one where Gatlinburg burned.

As a side note, I know that leaves turn due to the amount of light...However, a few cold mornings will really get things going.  OTH, warm weather can slow that change by a week or two.  Right now, there is a bit of color to the trees but not much.  The sycamores have yellowed some.  A few yard maples have started to turn red.  The dogwoods do have a little red.  However, we are a pretty long way from peak IMHO.  Unfortunately, this is the recipe for leaf season yard dragging on forever IMBY.  We have several oaks near us which are notorious for holding their leaves.  I hope that once things change that we get a really good wind storm and knock them off(after peak of course).  One year I was still picking them up at Christmas.  I had a skiff of snow and leaves in my mower bags at the same time.  

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Oaks always seem to hang on so long. I finally saw a Maple getting around 50% red near the Cedar Bluff exit.  I think it only got down to 62 this weekend at my location near downtown Knoxville, but it felt so cool I ran with a hoodie. Usually I can't wear them until the low 50s. Ray's Weather Center (mostly covers the high country of W. North Carolina)  had a hopeful post on Facebook.  Seems to think the endless ridge is forcing a lot of cold to pool up in western and central Canada.  Maybe it flips hard when it flips, just barely in time, and we still get some good color in some locations.  

@jaxjagman sorry you haven't been feeling so well, but glad everything came back negative 

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TRI through October 7th, has a higher high-temp average than both high temp averages for August and September...I think that is right.  I still have a difficult time believing that!  That said, it has been a scorcher today.  The wind felt like a hair dryer.  But we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel....I feel fairly safe in saying that these types of temps (weeks on end) of highs in the mid/upper 80s, and low 90s is basically over.  I am sure there will be something of a last gasp.  I think we will even see periods of AN temps...but not to this extreme.  This beats anything in my memory.  It has been so hot that it probably deserved its own thread.  But let it be said, the 72 hour countdown to end this crap has finally begun!  The BOHICA summer is about at an end.

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Thursday, October 11, the day summer 2018 truly ended. Fall has at last finally arrived fashionably late and well received. Anyway, it is currently 52F and falling. To state the obvious I'm looking forward to some seasonable to below average  temps in the coming weeks and I'm sure you guys are too. 

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53°F and overcast. If this garbage low level coverage can clear out, perhaps radiational cooling can get us down close to 40° by dawn. 30s might be asking too much.

 

Tonight feels freaking amazing! I hate Michael happened to the SE. But combined with the high amplitude trough, these are the most seasonal Autumn temperatures we've had. Still don't expect a frost for another few weeks. Eager for that Fall foliage.

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Noon hour and the temp is holding at 47 degrees. Summer to winter in a few days.   Second observation. If your offense is struggling, play Tennessee and it will work much better.

I'm just happy we're still in the game ...for now.

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