pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just wanted to stop by and give a congrats to you all in here. Looks like the first advisory level event of the season is shaping up for most the the area. If you're above 1000', you might pop a warning level event from this. November events are like March events, only better. We're at the start of the season, playing with house money and losing sun angle and daylight length each day. Whatever happens, this will be fun because we're just at the start of the season. It may not meet your 24" or bust criteria....but yep.....i'll take my slushy 1-2" and be good w/ it. Early season sure is nice. No doubt about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: It may not meet your 24" or bust criteria....but yep.....i'll take my slushy 1-2" and be good w/ it. Early season sure is nice. No doubt about it. I only care about high impact events. If we got 6" - 10" of paste from DC to NYC and back through I-99 that weighed trees down, etc. it would count in my book. Unique events like early or late season snow and Xmas snow also counts as a good event in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 06z NCEP GFS tries to put a solid 2" - 4" across event the LSV with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 39 minutes ago, canderson said: That $4.74 isn't going to get you much of a snowstorm (remember he has a daughter in college!). I like MDT to get 1.5" of snow/sleet mix. Falling as the sun sets only makes it more fun. If you're north, say State College and up, you probably end up with a plowable snowfall. Giddy up, kids! She's at Shipp now, going for her masters. She a GA in the sports dept. She's on their dime now !!!!!! however, i'm not sure i even have $4.74. Between her and my wife. Heck the dog probably has more of my money then i do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 45 minutes ago, canderson said: That $4.74 isn't going to get you much of a snowstorm (remember he has a daughter in college!). I like MDT to get 1.5" of snow/sleet mix. Falling as the sun sets only makes it more fun. If you're north, say State College and up, you probably end up with a plowable snowfall. Giddy up, kids! A lot of times over the past few years I've noticed that you usually guess low on amounts, or at least lower than what I would guess, but I was thinking earlier this morning that 1"-2" at the airport seemed about right. I have a feeling that you'll end up being really close on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z NCEP GFS tries to put a solid 2" - 4" across event the LSV with this event. Appreciate your thoughts...and doubly appreciate when you're optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Still a lot of leaves on the trees around these parts. A couple of inches of paste could be a problem like we had in October a few years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Unfortunately that is a wise choice. HP in NE would help CCB into eastern locals early in the game, but verbatim the evolution is wonky, and we lose the critical levels until the UUL pops and wind/levels again become more favorable. I'd pay with all of the moolah in Sauss's wallet for this to happen in a few weeks from now when December is rockin, cause this would likely lay down the goods. Since it is the first event of the "season" I would think they would be be putting a little more into the possibility of making sure people do not get caught off guard. 2-3" of slop on the road is still dangerous. People do not like when they forecast 12-24 and we get nothing but forecasting 2-4 when only 1-2 falls is not going to make anyone angry :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, Festus said: Still a lot of leaves on the trees around these parts. A couple of inches of paste could be a problem like we had in October a few years ago. I think we're kinda behind with the leaves changing / dropping. You're right though, still a lot. i was thinking on Saturday when we had the wind, all these leaves blowing around and all the drains are now blocked with leaves could cause some ponding issues on the roads. Crews haven't had time to clean them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 New NAM has you all starting as snow. Cold trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: New NAM has you all starting as snow. Cold trend continues. You beat me to it. Was just checking. For a while now, we've looked to bookend wintery on this one. If that UUL would just dive in, it would be more white than wet for us tainters. We have to wait for that to get to the piedmont for the secondary to pop....and column to once again cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: You beat me to it. Was just checking. For a while now, we've looked to bookend wintery on this one. If that UUL would just dive in, it would be more white than wet for us tainters. We have to wait for that to get to the piedmont for the secondary to pop....and column to once again cool. 00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike. ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22. If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 When is start time for this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike. ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22. If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew. Yeah I saw, but still think it a tall tale for SW/SE 1/3s of PA based on orientation. To your point, if the colder solutions continue to show up....I'll take my crow w/ Jamaican dry rub please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: When is start time for this stuff? thurs afternoon for you. Snow hog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: thurs afternoon for you. Snow hog. Not so fast lol...gfs gives us hardly any precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Uh....NAM says "I hope you like crow". Still a bookend event, and that scares me down here. 12z GFS shows slightly less dynamic system for secondary, and we need dynamics for this one to spray the snow guns down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Not so fast lol...gfs gives us hardly any precip up here. I stand by what I said yesterday. 6" or more for you. Embrace and enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Not so fast lol...gfs gives us hardly any precip up here. yep, saw that, but your still sit in a nice spot. I'll switch w/ ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike. ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22. If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew. cut those numbers in half and i could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, sauss06 said: cut those numbers in half and i could see that. Yea even cutting the numbers in half is big for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yea even cutting the numbers in half is big for this time of year. i'm not complaining bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Looking forward past this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: On November 24th, '14 we had record heat @68 degrees. I recorded 1.5" 2 days later. We also had a trace on the 29th. We nickle and dimed our way to almost 40" that season. Edit- from my notes 11-26-02 1.5" 11-21-08 3" 11-27-12 1.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Somebody with the text forecast is all-in. This is for the lower end of Huntingdon county. Thursday 11/15 100% / 6.2 in Cloudy with snow. Some sleet may mix in. Temps nearly steady around 30. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Thursday Night 100% / 1.8 in A mixture of winter precipitation in the evening. Then snow mixing with rain at times in the overnight hours. Low near 30F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 1 to 3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 UKMET is solid for everyone...west of US 15 in Adams and Franklin counties flirt with warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 How's precip totals look on Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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