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Jonathan

Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

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So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment.

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On 1/3/2019 at 12:22 PM, NCSNOW said:

So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment.

By my observations it should start Jan 8th or 9th,10 days from the  Dec 29th-Jan.7th rotation.Usually it takes 7-10 days for this to filter through the atmosphere so there is a 7-10 day lag .January 17-18th or so we should see the MJO emerge again after the 7-10 lag after effect.

Good news it this latest rotation doesn't seem to be a strong as the Dec 2nd-12th one and the Dec 19-22 surprise flareup.

There were 6 days above 500 km/s that rotation with 1 day above 600 km/s,so far into this rotation only 2 days above 500 km/s with two more days to go.This gives me more confidence the MJO should stay a bit stronger a bit longer maybe emerging at a weak phase 6 or 7 but just a guess.

Next rotation is Jan.24th but the sun looks pretty quiet Jan 8th-to Jan 23rd which should help keep the tropical forcing out of the Maritime(phase 4,5,6) in the long term.

 

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