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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Matt and Wolfie. Are you guys going to be joining the Co-Op observer/Cocarahs? Would be really nice to get data from you guys in two new snowbelts. It's tough to get reliable data from people in the true belts of lake effect regions. Maybe even get a webcam setup. I don't think there is a report out of Altmar right now and only one in Redfield. 

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Super 8 huh? Lol I work in Pulaski right down the street..I live in the NW part of altmar, 6 miles ESE of Pulaski...

I’ve been noticing a nice cooling trend over the last few runs on the LR GFS..

 

 

1CB84705-CCD3-4608-B2FF-650244AAE83E.jpeg

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Super 8 huh? Lol I work in Pulaski right down the street..I live in the NW part of altmar, 6 miles ESE of Pulaski...

I’ve been noticing a nice cooling trend over the last few runs on the LR GFS..

 

 

1CB84705-CCD3-4608-B2FF-650244AAE83E.jpeg

:weenie:

eps_m_z500a_c_nh_93.thumb.png.0fd0f2bc247e6e4991de9a9ec541d96d.png

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Eventually I would like to :D Once I get a little more set up..

Actually the Bennett’s bridge location is in NE Altmar..I’m pretty sure at one point they owned the 24 and 48 hr snowfall records for NY state..

0554E806-84A6-45D3-A946-F0F40815498E.jpeg

I live just south of “Richland”

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I am definitely considering joining the network...although I fear Carol Yerdon in North Redfield will beat me out every time...lol. If you draw a line from Redfield to North Osceola, I am just south of that line..near Cedar Pines...right on the Oswego/Lewis county lines.

This area is often JUST in the heaviest band that sets up on a west wind, does excellent in northwest wind events, and seems to do great with Orographic Lifting events.

When you look at snowfall maps, you will see the heavier totals bend down this way.

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23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am definitely considering joining the network...although I fear Carol Yerdon in North Redfield will beat me out every time...lol. If you draw a line from Redfield to North Osceola, I am just south of that line..near Cedar Pines...right on the Oswego/Lewis county lines.

This area is often JUST in the heaviest band that sets up on a west wind, does excellent in northwest wind events, and seems to do great with Orographic Lifting events.

When you look at snowfall maps, you will see the heavier totals bend down this way.

It's actually better that your location is different than Carols, better data-set for the snowiest place east of the rockies. Make sure you join! The West events are the strongest bands for Ontario. Have you ever experienced lake effect off of Erie/Ontario before or only Michigan? 

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54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's actually better that your location is different than Carols, better data-set for the snowiest place east of the rockies. Make sure you join! The West events are the strongest bands for Ontario. Have you ever experienced lake effect off of Erie/Ontario before or only Michigan? 

 

I lived in North Central PA for a few years, so would sometimes experience some of the remains of Lake Erie snows. I also was going to Niagara Falls during the 2001 event, so experienced some of that event...but mostly remember driving through Lancaster and seeing the highest snowbanks I have ever seen along the roads. Also lived in the Muskoka region of Ontario, Canada for two years. Witnessed some fantastic lake effect events there off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

 

So this is a new adventure along a different Great Lake. :)

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59 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

I lived in North Central PA for a few years, so would sometimes experience some of the remains of Lake Erie snows. I also was going to Niagara Falls during the 2001 event, so experienced some of that event...but mostly remember driving through Lancaster and seeing the highest snowbanks I have ever seen along the roads. Also lived in the Muskoka region of Ontario, Canada for two years. Witnessed some fantastic lake effect events there off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

 

So this is a new adventure along a different Great Lake. :)

That's quite a few places. How are you able to just get up and move so frequently? 

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Super 8 huh? Lol I work in Pulaski right down the street..I live in the NW part of altmar, 6 miles ESE of Pulaski...
I’ve been noticing a nice cooling trend over the last few runs on the LR GFS..
 
 
1CB84705-CCD3-4608-B2FF-650244AAE83E.thumb.jpeg.d394c7b6102d2b92af7996c6715dd632.jpeg
Sounds like you picked a prime spot for some intense rates Wolf, good for you bro and enjoy. Perhaps a meet and greet is in order this yr up there somewhere, during an event! November events up there are intense as LO sometimes reaches its boiling pt, lol!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's quite a few places. How are you able to just get up and move so frequently? 

We are careful with how we use our money...and have been very blessed with how things have worked out. Our friends ended up buying our house in Michigan, so we saved thousands of dollars. Grew up in Pennsylvania...First two years of marriage we lived in Canada, then lived the past nine years in Michigan. It has been an awesome journey!

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10 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Eventually I would like to :D Once I get a little more set up..

Actually the Bennett’s bridge location is in NE Altmar..I’m pretty sure at one point they owned the 24 and 48 hr snowfall records for NY state..

0554E806-84A6-45D3-A946-F0F40815498E.jpeg

I live just south of “Richland”

Looking forward to talking about local events with you this winter, neighbor! We have been going through Orwell and Richland many times as we go to Pulaski for our weekly needs. Checked out Salmon River Falls two weekends agp.

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I have noticed some very early Oct Nov Dec temp outlooks and I have to say I'm a bit annoyed. One outlook from the CPC showed the northern tier of the country AN for Nov and Dec based solely on the prospects of El Nino developing. Great. How about some true research instead of just broad brushing based on the word itself? A weak El Nino has been, as BuffaloWeather has eluded to, tied to a colder and snowier winter. A stronger El Nino has been tied to milder conditions during winter. This current El Nino is forecast to be very weak to possibly just neutral enso conditions. Long winded diatribe to say that is poor forecasting.

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

We are careful with how we use our money...and have been very blessed with how things have worked out. Our friends ended up buying our house in Michigan, so we saved thousands of dollars. Grew up in Pennsylvania...First two years of marriage we lived in Canada, then lived the past nine years in Michigan. It has been an awesome journey!

That's awesome that you're able to move around the country and have that flexibility! Since you're such a snow lover, would you ever move out west in the mountains or Alaska? I'm pretty much stuck in Buffalo for life because of the majority of my wife's and my family and friends all live in Western New York. Would miss them too much if I moved. 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I have noticed some very early Oct Nov Dec temp outlooks and I have to say I'm a bit annoyed. One outlook from the CPC showed the northern tier of the country AN for Nov and Dec based solely on the prospects of El Nino developing. Great. How about some true research instead of just broad brushing based on the word itself? A weak El Nino has been, as BuffaloWeather has eluded to, tied to a colder and snowier winter. A stronger El Nino has been tied to milder conditions during winter. This current El Nino is forecast to be very weak to possibly just neutral enso conditions. Long winded diatribe to say that is poor forecasting.

Most long range temperature outlooks have warm bias. Global warming factors into these quite significantly. Nearly every year we get warmer and warmer. Every time I've checked the long range climate temp models, no matter what time of year, they are always warm. Obviously it's quite impossible to predict temperature outside of a month or so ahead of time but Weak El Ninos, especially western based allow positive PNA and a trough in the east....generally speaking.

Weak-El-Nino-map.jpg

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Our September is going to end up well above average. But long range models are hinting at a cooldown towards end of month into October. Let's see if it keeps getting put off farther and farther out in time like it has the last few years.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_64.png

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So true. I have been very intrigued by the two seasons this year (well it seems spring never existed maybe fall will be different) so far. Winter was relatively persistent, with exception of February, right through April and summer kicked right in and has also been consistent. Should we see the pattern change in the long range that is now being advertised by many models I wonder if it will have the same staying power and we will see more consistent BN temps for a long period of time.

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9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's awesome that you're able to move around the country and have that flexibility! Since you're such a snow lover, would you ever move out west in the mountains or Alaska? I'm pretty much stuck in Buffalo for life because of the majority of my wife's and my family and friends all live in Western New York. Would miss them too much if I moved. 

My wife has made it very clear she will never live in Alaska. Lol

Plus, part of our reason for moving this way was to be closer to family and close friends. The west is way too far...and expensive! I don't work in the right field for making money. :)

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Looks like an enjoyable weekend coming up!!

 

2F2CDF01-9271-4399-AB9F-9EED6557D9FF.jpeg

Maybe some lake effect showers for some..

 

Northwesterly flow will
usher in much cooler air, with 850MB temperatures plunging to around
+5 or +6C. This will promote lake effect/upslope cloudiness
southeast of the lakes, with possibly just enough low-level moisture
left behind to produce a few showers through Saturday morning across
these same areas. Drier air will continue to build in through the
day Saturday. This combined with lowering inversion heights and
diurnal influences will quickly shut off any precip by late Saturday
morning, while also eroding away at the low-level cloud cover
heading into Saturday afternoon. Much cooler and drier air advecting
into the region behind the cold front will allow lows Friday night
to drop back into the much more comfortable 50s Friday night, with
some upper 40s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Daytime
highs on Saturday will struggle to climb above the lower to mid 60s,
possibly not getting out of the upper 50s across some of the higher
terrain. This will be quite the change from the mid-summer warmth
and humidity of the previous week, and right on time for the arrival
of astronomical autumn.
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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Looks like an enjoyable weekend coming up!!

 

2F2CDF01-9271-4399-AB9F-9EED6557D9FF.jpeg

Perfect outdoor weather. Give me 60-70 with low dews and sunshine anytime. Literally perfect. Don’t break a sweat, not chilly or shivering and if there’s a breeze you throw a hoodie on. How could you not like that? 

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It feels great outside today. Finally some autumn weather. Our maples are starting to get some color.

Last night’s squall line involved no lightning and a three minute downpour, but hopefully a pattern change and lake influence will bring us more precip. Lake Erie temps are warm, so fingers crossed we can get some good convection for the next few weeks.

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2 hours ago, WNash said:

It feels great outside today. Finally some autumn weather. Our maples are starting to get some color.

Last night’s squall line involved no lightning and a three minute downpour, but hopefully a pattern change and lake influence will bring us more precip. Lake Erie temps are warm, so fingers crossed we can get some good convection for the next few weeks.

We had lightning, heavy rains, and quite some gusty winds up here on the Tug.

Fall colors are very slow to appear with the September summer....

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Dropped down into the 30’s at the nearest wunderground station, several degrees colder then forecasted..I would think this has to be close to record territory, if Altmar actually kept records lol

821410F7-FC80-4946-90D3-C373087FAA75.png

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