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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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52 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Would love to see a moderate ice storm verify.  Pretty rare and exciting for mid April.  I don't want carnage but some sporadic power outages and trees down would be pretty cool.  

We have a baby on home oxygen and a heart/respiratory monitor so no thanks.

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57 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Would love to see a moderate ice storm verify.  Pretty rare and exciting for mid April.  I don't want carnage but some sporadic power outages and trees down would be pretty cool.  

Should mainly be accretion on elevated surfaces, which is bad for power lines and trees but maybe not so much for most roads. A lot of it will be at night so no help from solar heating. Although, it hasn't exactly been that warm so far in April and with most road salt washed away and NAM sounding temps of 29-30F (KSYR) at the surface...could be messy for a while.

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6 minutes ago, WNash said:

We have a baby on home oxygen and a heart/respiratory monitor so no thanks.

You might want to be proactive regarding backup power or monitoring options. Or at least know how long you can deal with a power interrupution.

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12z Euro is frigid. Has over 1” of ice near BUF...likley overdone but the potential for some noteworthy ice accretions are definitely there. Verbatim this would cripple us. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Would love to see a moderate ice storm verify.  Pretty rare and exciting for mid April.  I don't want carnage but some sporadic power outages and trees down would be pretty cool.  

Yea,that'd be great... just like last week when the high winds would be cool so I could have equipment get damaged and be with out power for 3 days... yes an ice storm would be just swell...

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14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wpc chances of at least a 1/4” as of now..(up to Sunday am)

 

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Looks conservative to me with the Euro and NAM both showing significant ice accumulations possible down to the Thruway corridor but maybe the models are being over zealous with the ice accumulation predictions considering it’s the middle of April! However as others have stated it has been pretty dang cold lately and the event will be happening at nighttime so warm ground and solar radiation impacts are likley going to be quite a bit less than a normal April day at noontime.

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55 minutes ago, tim123 said:

When euro starts showing a big ice storm this close to a event big red flag. 

I hope the local utility companies are taking this more seriously than the BUF weather service seems to be (and making appropriate preparations). The threat has been apparent for a couple of days and is growing more certain with each model run. I guess we can hope the cold air gets deep enough to change the precip over to sleet.

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2 hours ago, WNash said:

We have a baby on home oxygen and a heart/respiratory monitor so no thanks.

Sorry to hear that! I hope he/she's getting better!!

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11 minutes ago, coh said:

I hope the local utility companies are taking this more seriously than the BUF weather service seems to be (and making appropriate preparations). The threat has been apparent for a couple of days and is growing more certain with each model run. I guess we can hope the cold air gets deep enough to change the precip over to sleet.

Yeah if I was BUF I would be issuing a Winter Storm Watch from BUF north for the possibility of significant (over .25”) ice accumulations. Don’t think there’s an Ice Storm Watch, only Ice Storm Warning. This could catch a lot of people off guard, especially this late in the season if some of these latest runs were to verify.

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah if I was BUF I would be issuing a Winter Storm Watch from BUF north for the possibility of significant (over .25”) ice accumulations. Don’t think there’s an Ice Storm Watch, only Ice Storm Warning. This could catch a lot of people off guard, especially this late in the season is some of these latest runs were to verify.

Agreed, although they are probably will wait for the 00z package before pulling the trigger.

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1 hour ago, Polarbear said:

Yea,that'd be great... just like last week when the high winds would be cool so I could have equipment get damaged and be with out power for 3 days... yes an ice storm would be just swell...

I loved that wind event and the damage that came with it, in fact wind events are nearly my favorite phenomena.  March 15th 2017 is a benchmark for me, just a really great event because it was marginally unexpected.  

For a bunch of weather enthusiasts you guys sure are soft.  

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2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Do the thermal profiles suggest alot of sleet? Amyone

I think sleet is only a concern East of Lake Ontario.  The layer of cold air south of Ontario will be razor thin and I think we will struggle to get below freezing.  Probably sitting right at 32 or 33 if things materialize.  As stated, ice accumulation will be limited to elevated surfaces if at all.  This whole things seems unlikely with probably just a very cold rain much more probable.  If icing did occur, it only has about a 12 hour window to accumulate as that front will make a solid move North on Sunday.   

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Just now, tim123 said:

Nam has roc below freezing for 30 hours. With freezing rain

I think that is a stretch.  Off hour NAM runs are not something I would be clinging too right now.  

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Just now, tim123 said:

Delta most models now show upper 20s for 24 hours

I would love to see that happen, but I'm not buying into yet. I think Lake Ontario itself is going to throw a little heat into the mix and moderate us a few degrees.  Just seems hard to imagine we can get that cold.  Maybe Im underestimating the strength of that high pressure.  

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Well for what its worth, parts of lower michigan are under Winter Storm watches for freezing rain.   

The fact that the trees have zero foliage and many havent even budded out will help us some.  If the trees were ahead of schedule any amount of ice would be pretty crippling.  

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4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

You might want to be proactive regarding backup power or monitoring options. Or at least know how long you can deal with a power interrupution.

We just got home from the hospital and there’s only so much we can do. But can go to southtowns inlaws in a crisis.

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