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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2018 OBS Thread

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The event tomorrow reminds me of the one we had a while back where I  got about 5.5" in 4 hrs. Should be some good daytime mod/hvy snow. :)

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Gusty line coming through with some initial heavy rain.  Temp went up to 66F before the rain hit.  Currently down to 61F  with light rain.  The initial dump was 0.08".  Mt Holly issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the immediate Philly metro area.  It's moving pretty fast.

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moving into Trenton now...

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1239 PM EDT WED APR 4 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Northwestern Ocean County in southern New Jersey...
  Camden County in southern New Jersey...
  Mercer County in central New Jersey...
  Northwestern Salem County in southern New Jersey...
  Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  Northern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
  Southern Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
  Central Monmouth County in central New Jersey...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 130 PM EDT

* At 1239 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Richboro to Chestnut Hill to near Wilmington,
  moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Philadelphia, Trenton, Camden, Wilmington, Gloucester City, Cherry
  Hill, Old Bridge, Bensalem, East Brunswick, Evesham, Mount Laurel,
  Marlboro, Manalapan, Ewing, Chester, Willingboro, Deptford,
  Voorhees, Medford and West Deptford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This severe thunderstorm may contain little or no lightning. Do not
wait until you hear thunder before taking cover.

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Snow, severe thunderstorms, snow......April 2018.   Radar showing some 45+ kt velocities heading my way.  Lets see how much of that makes the surface.  

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These cells are quickly getting more organized. I wouldn't be surprised if someone sees a tornado warning in SNJ. Some supercell structures are definitely taking shape..

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20 minutes ago, BBasile said:

  Radar showing some 45+ kt velocities heading my way.  Lets see how much of that makes the surface.  

Well, it translated to a 35 MPH gust at the surface.  Quick hitter.  Had a heavy downpour, a bit of wind, and now the sky is brightening up.  Temp dropped from 68 to 58.  

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2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

NWS let the High Wind Warning expire but wonder if they could have kept a Wind Advisory up as a follow-on until maybe 11 pm (unless conditions aren't quite hitting that criteria)?

I agree. I'm astonished that my work didn't lose power. 

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Typhoon Tip's thoughts on the coming week: SNE centric but would have effects for us too.. thought it was a great read

 

Quote

Euro has an east bias over the west Atlantic, to which NCEP has noted several times since that model's last upgrade...

It's pretty commonly needing to correct west/and/or/northwest re coastal or near coastal cyclogen leaving the lower M/A when passing middle range into shorter ranges, so flags and caution are recommended re the Tuesday-Wed hand waving... 

It's the fact that the system and it's governing mechanics are and have persistently been observable in the flow ...simply a matter of amplitude/placement wrt developed features.  It is thus more likely its existence in the flow is clad ...it's the handling that's the problem.  And in part ...the problem is that it is tough to use the operational GFS as a possible corrective scheme because ..that models has a progressivity bias in the mid range - less pronounced as five years ago but does still to some degree.  The GFS ensemble mean has liked that period for almost 10 days at this point... Contrasting, the EPS is uselessly always mirroring the operational version so I tend to be less reliant on that unless the differences are overwhelming. 

Those bias' in total may be mutually exclusive for their leading causes, too ...happening to result in the same 'flat' appeal there.  Perfectly masking.  nice goin'

That's A ...B, said governing mechanics are still over the open Pacific between Hawaii and the lower GOA region where I believe the assimilation and satellite sounding are chiefly responsible for the grid initialization ...  Would like to see that get into the denser physical sensing over land, ...because...none of the following can be preclusively discounted at this time:

should more relay off the Pac; 

the western ridge pop a tad more behind;

the respective bias' correct ...

all those factors end up being a better performer in the east. 

I don't really have much of an opinion on Sunday... I can see a tendency that everyone else does.  The flow is fast again I'm noticing.  The deal on Sunday could amp slightly and clip SE zones and remain primarily an open fast moving wave, and get the hell on out of here ... such that in totality it's wave spacing doesn't interfere ... ? sure...  the flow is quick.  But, that's not a prediction over all... just that it's not beyond pragmatic imagination, having that be the way to get these events to transpire relative to the background synoptics. 

Equal plausibility neither transpires. 

 

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The canadian suite at 12z is way more amped on Sunday than the other models and as a result it has the coastal about 75-100 miles further west than 00z. Could just be noise, but it was a pretty significant shift and being 48 hours out, if it is sniffing out a shift NW last minute, there is still time to get enough ticks for a comeback hit/graze. Something to watch at 18z and 00z. Wouldn't call it likely but with how all over the place the models are in this pattern, anything is possible. If I live at the shore, I'd be watching closely. A shift of 50 miles NW from the canadian low position and it would be a pretty decent event down there.

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Currently 32F here at 10:30 pm. A little concerned about what looks to be an overperforming chilly night here and the effects on the Magnolias which are blooming now.

Never mind, maybe - temp. went up a degree to 33F, and looks like come clouds starting to filter in overhead, more to the west.

Infrared_4-08-18.jpg.73397a4cce665fe93547374878804c4f.jpg

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7 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Never mind, maybe - temp. went up a degree to 33F, and looks like come clouds starting to filter in overhead, more to the west.

Infrared_4-08-18.jpg.73397a4cce665fe93547374878804c4f.jpg

During these cold spells, since the air is so dry (which has prompted SPSes due to being close to but not at Red Flag Warning criteria), then frost is pretty much ruled out. So at this point, as long as it doesn't get to 28F or lower (hard freeze), and/or the dewpoint doesn't suddenly rise and get close to the surface temp, then the buds/flowers should be okay.

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23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

During these cold spells, since the air is so dry (which has prompted SPSes due to being close to but not at Red Flag Warning criteria), then frost is pretty much ruled out. So at this point, as long as it doesn't get to 28F or lower (hard freeze), and/or the dewpoint doesn't suddenly rise and get close to the surface temp, then the buds/flowers should be okay.

Good to know, thanks. Although it did get to 28F here, not sure for how long. 32F currently.

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3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Good to know, thanks. Although it did get to 28F here, not sure for how long. 32F currently.

My low this morning was 30 but it's now up to 33.  DP is 17 though so pretty arid.  I think the criteria is if it remains 28F (or lower) for 4 or more hours then the buds/flowers would be toast.

My 3 lilacs have leaf/flower buds just past swelling and at bud break stage (the early one's flowers should start happening by the end of the month and the others bloom in May).

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