• Member Statistics

    16,046
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    qwerty710710
    Newest Member
    qwerty710710
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WeatherFeen2000

-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

Recommended Posts

Waves at Buoy 44025 are up to 21' Friday PM.   This might be more than the Jan. 04 bomb.   Really, it is because more sq. miles of ocean are churned up here with a good easterly fetch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Waves at Buoy 44025 are up to 21' Friday PM.   This might be more than the Jan. 04 bomb.   Really, it is because more sq. miles of ocean are churned up here with a good easterly fetch.

 Winds during the Jan 4th storm were north here hence minimal coastal impacts. I wouldn’t even use the bouy reports for that storm as they are further offshore and had some fetch to build wind waves. Waves at local beaches were minimal during that storm and consisted of longer period ESE ground swell that snuck in from the SE quadrant of the storm. Up in Boston winds were from the ENE and thus onshore and they broke their all time highest storm tide. We will be in a similar situation with this storm as they were in during Jan 4th. Luckily for coastal residents this storm isn’t going to come close to the pressures recorded in that storm and thus record storm tides here aren’t likely.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Winds during the Jan 4th storm were north here hence minimal coastal impacts. I wouldn’t even use the bouy reports for that storm as they are further offshore and had some fetch to build wind waves. Waves at local beaches were minimal during that storm and consisted of longer period ESE ground swell that snuck in from the SE quadrant of the storm. Up in Boston winds were from the ENE and thus onshore and they broke their all time highest storm tide. We will be in a similar situation with this storm as they were in during Jan 4th. Luckily for coastal residents this storm isn’t going to come close to the pressures recorded in that storm and thus record storm tides here aren’t likely.

I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, snywx said:

I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city..

I honestly think poconos will turn to heavy snow followed by north New Jersey and even nyc could turn into snow. The cmc depiction is a perfect example of that though on the snowmap it doesn’t show that I think all the columns cool enough for it to snow directly from dynamic cooling. 

CF52A6C3-9A75-4CED-917B-C33E8F121E97.png

D8C865C6-6EB0-42B3-BD3C-5687CD03BAAC.png

imageproxy.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, snywx said:

I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city..

Yeah I like mt. Pocono for snow. There elevation is 2,000’ which is exceptionally high for a populated east coast location. Let’s see how things play out before we throw New England out of the mix. I’m planing on heading up to my Vermont share house Thursday night. The house is at 1600’ in the southern greens. I’m planning on snow boarding Friday at Stratton which has a peak elevation of 3875’ which should be plenty high for an all snow event. Using the anologs of March 10 and December 92 east facing slopes had tremendous accumulations due to upslope flow. It will all depend on how far south and east things end up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, snywx said:

I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city..

Elevated areas in NE PA, NW NJ, and Orange County on north are the places to be if you want to see any snow at all out of Thurs-Fri

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah I like mt. Pocono for snow. There elevation is 2,000’ which is exceptionally high for a populated east coast location. Let’s see how things play out before we throw New England out of the mix. I’m planing on heading up to my Vermont share house Thursday night. The house is at 1600’ in the southern greens. I’m planning on snow boarding Friday at Stratton which has a peak elevation of 3875’ which should be plenty high for an all snow event. Using the anologs of March 10 and December 92 east facing slopes had tremendous accumulations due to upslope flow. It will all depend on how far south and east things end up.

Catskills might be the northern extent of anything decent. Still 4 days out so anything is possible but it isn't looking too good for those up in NE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, snywx said:

Catskills might be the northern extent of anything decent. Still 4 days out so anything is possible but it isn't looking too good for those up in NE

It’s looking like Anthony may have wishcasted our storm right out to sea...

Joke, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the models trend closer and more amped as we head closer as has been the seasonal trend

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s looking like Anthony may have wishcasted our storm right out to sea...

Joke, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the models trend closer and more amped as we head closer as has been the seasonal trend

The Southern track is a problem because when the block eventually sets up, the system is too far offshore now. Before we were looking at a stall near the benchmark before an eventual retrograde. 

Still time to correct, but it's looking like the biggest impacts will be coastal flooding now, and primarily due to the astronomical high tides. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, snywx said:

Catskills might be the northern extent of anything decent. Still 4 days out so anything is possible but it isn't looking too good for those up in NE

The ULL to the lakes is only 2-3 days out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Elevated areas in NE PA, NW NJ, and Orange County on north are the places to be if you want to see any snow at all out of Thurs-Fri

 

Yeah, after 2" of rain 1st.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

Yeah, after 2" of rain 1st.

It’s not going to be 2” of rain above 2k. After some brief light rain to start any decent rates will bring down cold enough air for those areas to snow. There is no mid level warmth with that low track 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s not going to be 2” of rain above 2k. After some brief light rain to start any decent rates will bring down cold enough air for those areas to snow. There is no mid level warmth with that low track 

LOL,

The surface is almost 50 degrees. You need to be out near Mansfield, PA to see snow.

5a945cd11081e.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL,

The surface is almost 50 degrees. You need to be out near Mansfield, PA to see snow.

5a945cd11081e.png

Yep. The folks that wanted it south and weaker got their wish lol, it’s all rain all the way to high point state park in NW NJ lol

  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL,

The surface is almost 50 degrees. You need to be out near Mansfield, PA to see snow.

5a945cd11081e.png

Another terrible comment. You need a break. Your posting verbatim images with zero meteorology. It’s going to snow at 2k and allot. These runs are chasing convection. This will be further Nw with a larger, greater precip field 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another terrible comment. You need a break. Your posting verbatim images with zero meteorology. It’s going to snow at 2k and allot. These runs are chasing convection. This will be further Nw with a larger, greater precip field 

Take the snowgoggles off.

You're not going to snow with the surface in the mid-upper 40's.

You could snow above 2k, where almost nobody in this sub-forum lives. Congrats Binghampton. 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Take the snowgoggles off.

You're not going to snow with the surface in the mid-upper 40's.

You could snow above 2k, where almost nobody in this sub-forum lives. Congrats Binghampton. 

I can see areas like high point, towns in and around lake harmony pa, shawangunk ridge snow but that's exactly it... not many live there. I'm located in the extreme nw corner of the Upton CWA at 850' and I'm expecting 90% rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, snywx said:

I can see areas like high point, towns in and around lake harmony pa, shawangunk ridge snow but that's exactly it... not many live there. I'm located in the extreme nw corner of the Upton CWA at 850' and I'm expecting 90% rain. 

Exactly. There could be snow in the higher elevations, nobody is discounting that. But if we're focusing on local impacts within the sub-forum, this is a mostly rain event. We just haven't had much cold air to work with since the warm up in mid January. We've had a few well timed transient shots, but nothing that lasted more than a day or two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another terrible comment. You need a break. Your posting verbatim images with zero meteorology. It’s going to snow at 2k and allot. These runs are chasing convection. This will be further Nw with a larger, greater precip field 

Cragsmoor NY located about 10 mins north of Pine Bush sits on the shawangunk ridge at about 2100'. Might have to take the 25 min drive there to see some snow 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Take the snowgoggles off.

You're not going to snow with the surface in the mid-upper 40's.

You could snow above 2k, where almost nobody in this sub-forum lives. Congrats Binghampton. 

That’s exactly where I’m talking about. I threw in the towel for coastal snow days ago. Hence why I bugged Anthony. 

And people do live in the Poconos. 2,000 feet is no joke. This storm screams blue bomb up there. Using the December 92 and March 10 anologs for what happens when you force a moisture laden low level jet up and over high terrain.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The track of the SLP has shifted more than 100 miles from where it was a few days ago. The red circle represents where the old track was, the black is the latest one. You can see how the strong winds stay largely offshore now as opposed to onshore, where the red line is. The surface winds are more Northerly now, which is less damaging than Easterly or Southeasterly.

sketched_5a946c81c343a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly where I’m talking about. I threw in the towel for coastal snow days ago. Hence why I bugged Anthony. 

And people do live in the Poconos. 2,000 feet is no joke. This storm screams blue bomb up there. Using the December 92 and March 10 anologs for what happens when you force a moisture laden low level jet up and over high terrain.    

Fine, but that doesn't really affect anyone in this sub-forum. We have very few posters if any that live in the Poconos, as they mostly post in the Philly forum.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The track of the SLP has shifted more than 100 miles from where it was a few days ago. The red circle represents where the old track was, the black is the latest one. You can see now how the strong winds stay largely offshore now as opposed to onshore, where the red line is. The surface winds are more Northerly now, which is less damaging than Easterly or Southeasterly.

sketched_5a946c81c343a.png

Chasing convection. Let this play out before locking in a conclusion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Chasing convection. Let this play out before locking in a conclusion

I'm not trying to beat you up, but look at where the mid-level jet is pointed. The SLP almost always develops on the nose of the jet streak, as it's doing here. I disagree that this is convective feedback.

sketched_5a946dc1b25e1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dark blue line is what we need, pink line is what we currently have.

Have I mentioned how terrible the West coast is? We are lucky to have a storm at all with that giant trough into California.

sketched_5a946e4911123.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.