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bess

Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

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28 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m riding ICON and CMC until the wheels fall off 

Icon has me at 31 with precip falling, guess it'll be a nowcasting situation and just see how warm it can get on Saturday. Pretty decent cold shot, so who knows. I'm sure Frosty still gets 3" by accident!

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54 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m riding ICON and CMC until the wheels fall off 

Yea I agree with you on that. They have been rock solid for multiple runs in a row. GFS has been jumping around a lot with this setup. Looks to be a GGEM,CMC,ICON and to an extent EURO vs the american models. Nam is def still too warm, even for me, I agree @BornAgain13 but could simply just be keying on putting too much emphasis on the primary low, which in turn would allow the cold to hang around a bit longer should the southern stream be more dominant. 

Edit: Actually looking between 72-75, Nam made some improvements up this way, albeit 850s are already north of me and 2m temps are below. Sounds like a nice glaze would occur before flipping. Will be interesting to see which way models trend today. Lends a little credence to what @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment was talking about.

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Also, per the ICON surface temps stay 32 or below for the entire event for the immediate CAD areas of NC. So ICON is actually more wintry than the surface maps are showing. 

That's interesting 

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Also, per the ICON surface temps stay 32 or below for the entire event for the immediate CAD areas of NC. So ICON is actually more wintry than the surface maps are showing. 

Yeah the ptype maps for the ICON on TTidbits doesn't show ice...just rain or snow.  

12z CMC is pretty much the same as previous runs.

Euro/NAM/GFS are in the camp of a light wintry event.  ICON and CMC have a little more. 

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19 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

12Z ICON does have snow for WNC. Warning criteria snow. The time stamps he posted are after the snow has stopped in WNC

 

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah the ptype maps for the ICON on TTidbits doesn't show ice...just rain or snow.  

12z CMC is pretty much the same as previous runs.

Euro/NAM/GFS are in the camp of a light wintry event.  ICON and CMC have a little more. 

The ICON and CMC have done well this winter but it's really hard to beat a Euro/NAM/UKMET combination.

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You have storms that are primed to be overachievers(last event) and those primed to be underachievers(sunday). I cant see this being anything much more than flurries at the start and maybe a tree top glaze. 

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Guys, chalk up 12z gfs as trending more toward a CMC,GGEM and ICON evolution, as it is backing away from the northern stream dominant idea and more toward a flatter suppressed system (definitely what we want, at least for WNC folks and myself).

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Brad Panovich just posted a video, he thinks the models arent handling the cad very well... anyone else agree that their could be a decent period of freezing rain in the CAD areas?

It's possible, yes. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Brad Panovich just posted a video, he thinks the models arent handling the cad very well... anyone else agree that their could be a decent period of freezing rain in the CAD areas?

Am I missing something wrt to cad here? I guess this is just a straight in-situ wedge situation? There's really no high to the north and if so its under 1020?

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