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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

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9 hours ago, yoda said:

13z HRRR tries to bring a small line through DC around 20z (4pm) and then that is it

ended up being a spectacular afternoon lol.  maybe those cells hold together from pa.  not very inspiring, but who knows.

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Afternoon disco from LWX:

A upper level 500mb ridge will continue to be in place over the
eastern parts of the midwest and the eastern United States. Skies
will remain most clear with a west to southwesterly flow. Dewpoints
temperatures will rise up into the 70s. The high dewpoints will
combine with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and lead to
heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper level 500mb ridge will begin to
break down. A cold front will approach the region from the
north, and move through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Tuesday will continue with temperatures in the low to mid 90s
with some areas possibly reaching the upper 90s again. Heat
index values will likely be in the upper 90s and into the lower
100s again. As the frontal boundary approaches the region
Tuesday, the risk for convective showers and thunderstorms will
increase. The combination of high dew points and temperatures
will lead to high CAPE values. The combination of high
dewpoints/temps and the frontal boundary will lead to the risk
for thunderstorms and possibly severe weather. The frontal
boundary will move through the region sometime late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The boundary is forecast to stall over our region or
just to the south of our region. This boundary will likely act
as focus for the formation of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Wednesday in
the low to mid 80s.

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we're clearly in the boring storms period of weather.  not a fan of relying on leftover debris from systems coming from nw.  that's very clipper-like and we are absolutely horrendous at clippers.  might need something more organized from the ohio valley or a frontal passage...or a mcs is always acceptable.

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2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

GFS ensembles are trending more northern-US ridge, constant above average. Maybe a derecho setup down the line. It's kind of trending away from El Nino. 

Maybe you mean MCS set up?  I dont think there is such a thing as a derecho set up

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

Tornado risk tomorrow evening for areas just south of the WF?  Decent instability and hodographs with very low LCLs... shear looks good in the 30 to 40 kts range as well

Lol 00z NAM taketh away what 12z and 18z suggested

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Driving north on I 81 in some of the heaviest rain I’ve driven in in a long time.  Won’t be surprised to see some wind damage reports in the Martinsburg area  as the storm came in with a pretty good vengeance.



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LWX going a bit gung ho for Saturday in their morning AFD:

Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
re-invigorate and spread northeastward across virtually the
entire Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon into Friday night, before
departing to the northeast Saturday morning along and ahead of
the slowly advancing warm front. See the hydrology section for
details on the heavy rain/flooding threat.

Hedging on the side of climatology, the warm front will likely
get stuck near the Potomac River Saturday, enhancing low-level
directional shear. Speed shear increasing in the 0-6 km layer to
around 50 knots with around 40 kts at 850 mb. This couple with
abundant low-level moisture should lead to an environment
favorable for scattered strong to severe storms and perhaps a
couple supercells where best instability is pooled over
southeastern parts of the CWA. Gusty winds or an isolated
tornado would be possible in this scenario. SPC has southern
Maryland to the Fredericksburg Virginia area in a Marginal Risk,
with uncertainties in more robust instability given poor lapse
rates aloft.

The warm front should lift further north by Saturday evening,
with waning isentropic lift and diurnally decreasing instability
leading to a decrease in convection overnight.

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