John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I don't understand what the Canadian models are seeing causing the snowhole in Union County but it's been there run after run. It would be baffling to see it happen. As for warming, it's up to 34 here. We want it to warm up today, that means the atmosphere can hold more moisture and that it's being transported into the area via sw flow. Finally, I can get MRX wanting to watch one more set of model runs before they issue products, but if they really said model inconsistency was there reason for not, that was silly. This has been the most consistently modeled event in a few years for the area. It's been on the Euro for 5 days and on the NAM ever since it got within range. Even the weaker GFS was showing advisory level events for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I don't understand what the Canadian models are seeing causing the snowhole in Union County but it's been there run after run. It would be baffling to see it happen. As for warming, it's up to 34 here. We want it to warm up today, that means the atmosphere can hold more moisture and that it's being transported into the area via sw flow. Finally, I can get MRX wanting to watch one more set of model runs before they issue products, but if they really said model inconsistency was there reason for not, that was silly. This has been the most consistently modeled event in a few years for the area. It's been on the Euro for 5 days and on the NAM ever since it got within range. Even the weaker GFS was showing advisory level events for days on end. We have some serious WAA going on here in the Southern Valley, SSW wind has really increased, Shawn are you seeing the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Kasper said: We have some serious WAA going on here in the Southern Valley, SSW wind has really increased, Shawn are you seeing the same? Yep pretty gusty SSW winds currently, temp has spiked to 39 rising pretty rapidly. EDIT: actually up to 41 now, its climbing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ukie has the hole as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 John I wonder, if the moisture transport is from SW could that be a mesoscale terrain shadow in what would be the lee of the Frozen Head area if you factor SW moisture transport? Even if that is what is occurring on those models I can't see that occuring on that level in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bango said: Ukie has the hole as well I'm curious to see if it plays out, there is no reason at all for it to be there geographically, like downsloping. I wonder why the models are seeing it. On a positive note, it's awesome to see the UKIE moisten up, it had been stubborn too, although I usually use it more for Miller A type systems at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: John I wonder, if the moisture transport is from SW could that be a mesoscale terrain shadow in what would be the lee of the Frozen Head area if you factor SW moisture transport? It would be something I've never seen before for the area if that happened. It's also not on other models like the Euro, GFS, or NAM. Though the NAM has a snow donut in NE Tennessee and Southern Middle that also doesn't make much sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, John1122 said: I don't understand what the Canadian models are seeing causing the snowhole in Union County but it's been there run after run. It would be baffling to see it happen. As for warming, it's up to 34 here. We want it to warm up today, that means the atmosphere can hold more moisture and that it's being transported into the area via sw flow. Finally, I can get MRX wanting to watch one more set of model runs before they issue products, but if they really said model inconsistency was there reason for not, that was silly. This has been the most consistently modeled event in a few years for the area. It's been on the Euro for 5 days and on the NAM ever since it got within range. Even the weaker GFS was showing advisory level events for days on end. "model run-to-run consistency has been somewhat poor with this event leading to low confidence" That is the exact quote they sent in an email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Snow now on radar in NW TN Dyersburg and Union City area. Any plans as this beginning to effect the forum to start and OBS and Nowcast thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 What do yall think for snow potential for Sevier County? I'm thinking 1-3" but I just wanna know others' opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: What do yall think for snow potential for Sevier County? I'm thinking 1-3" but I just wanna know others' opinions. Yeah that is likely what it will be for everyone in East TN. Wouldn't be surprised for 4" in places. Mountains could get a little more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yeah that is likely what it will be for everyone in East TN. Wouldn't be surprised for 4" in places. Yeah I'm hoping we can get a flow off the mountains and get us an extra inch or 2 like what happened with a couple of other events in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12Z Euro seems to be holding serve. No real major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 12Z Euro seems to be holding serve. No real major changes. Looking back at past few runs euro looks little drier then it's past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 "model run-to-run consistency has been somewhat poor with this event leading to low confidence" That is the exact quote they sent in an email. They send out forecast emails?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Union City TN TAF site KUCY is reporting visibility down to 2.5 miles with "Haze". Its an automated site so likely its just started snowing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Looking back at past few runs euro looks little drier then it's past runs. In some areas, in others it has went up. All and all I would say its pretty even keel within the realm of typical model run to run fluctuations, no changes that were significant. Plus its really time for Mesoscale models to shine, and nowcast in all reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Union City TN TAF site KUCY is reporting visibility down to 2.5 miles with "Haze". Its an automated site so likely its just started snowing there.Per poster on another site it’s snowing steady in Dyersburg. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It's pretty much time to turn it over to the mesoscale models and look for run to run differences from there. NO model will regularly accurately predict snowfall totals. Most of our region is in line for a light to spotty moderate snowfall (that in and of itself is pretty remarkable). As always, winners and losers when it comes to snow. Been a fun one to follow. Here's to a good set of 18z's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: "They send out forecast emails?" Not hardly I was just so surprised they had not put out some kind of advisory with the event within 24 I emailed them and that was the response. Over the years there conservatism has been a little frustrating albeit most of the time accurate. I Agee with John however, inconsistency has not been a problem, so that was a lame excuse. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Already reports from near Paducah on the Illinois side of the river of 3 inches and official Paducah total so far as well. Still snowing there as well! We could only get so lucky with this. http://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=pah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The ground is frozen, temps will be in the 20s most likely as the moisture is behind the front. It's one of the few ways nearly the entire forum has a shot at seeing snow, even if it's not a particularly heavy snow event. 1-2 inches will be much more common than 2-3 most likely. But even then it's rare to see snow from Southern Arkansas WNW to North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Winter storm warnings now up in North Mississippi all the way to the border with tennessee , calling for 2-4 inches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Biggest fly in the ointment is energy trying to transfer from the north/west PVA to the south/east PVA. In the past that has been an awful disappointment for snow fans. Understand why MRX is trying to hold; it's like staying on 16 in blackjack and hoping the dealer busts first.. ARW version shows the snow band disintegrating into eastern Tenn. Painful prog. BNA and MEM are a little more on board, and perhaps justified. I'm mentally preparing to get blanked in Chattanooga. Anything above a dusting will be a pleasant surprise. Knox has a better chance of sticking snow. Ditto TRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The meso mods all show a little increase of snow at or around Knoxville. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Biggest fly in the ointment is energy trying to transfer from the north/west PVA to the south/east PVA. In the past that has been an awful disappointment for snow fans. Understand why MRX is trying to hold; it's like staying on 16 in blackjack and hoping the dealer busts first.. ARW version shows the snow band disintegrating into eastern Tenn. Painful prog. BNA and MEM are a little more on board, and perhaps justified. I'm mentally preparing to get blanked in Chattanooga. Anything above a dusting will be a pleasant surprise. Knox has a better chance of sticking snow. Ditto TRI. Ok Jeff you have to iron all the kinks out to make this happen! LOL Hopefully we have no issues with the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Pretty cool look at the moisture streaming from the Gulf to Arkansas meeting the front. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_CONUS_Band.php?band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Ok Jeff you have to iron all the kinks out to make this happen! LOL Hopefully we have no issues with the transfer. I think jeff just smacked me back to reality (ktri)...ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 "ARW version shows the snow band disintegrating into eastern Tenn. Painful prog". After living here 55 years I have learned if one thing can go wrong that will cause a snow forecast to bust it it often happens. Too many things have to line up just right to get the "goods" to come to pass. Every once and a while it does happen so lets reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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