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bluewave

January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's mostly rain. The one after that also looks like rain for the coast.

Snow chances are low with the ridge off the coast until the 15th for coastal areas and unfavorable MJO.

Check out all the models

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8 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Looks like a very light event if anything. Doesn’t excite many people nowadays

Yes but every model is still trending west

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Euro is a non event still here Monday or Tuesday.  System is too late to develop.  The evolution is different that the UKIE or JMA which would indicate more significant events.  The setup at 500 still looks promising that this ended up better here 

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for monday/tuesday to work out we need a strong system with the right track. the antecedent airmass is stale and we rely on caa during the storm to get cold enough

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The storm on the 2nd looks nice on the gfs and cmc for the area.

A low rides the boundary and gives us snow.

Very cold run also. More consistently than before. Looks like a cold Feb is quite possible. 

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7 hours ago, The Plowsman said:
17 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
That’s an I95 special if I have ever seen one. 

Never gonna happen

Ok. Explain what the models got wrong in depicting that outcome. 

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Ok. Explain what the models got wrong in depicting that outcome. 

Historically that far out, by n large, never comes to fruition. Models just not that good ...yet. What's that new model by Big Blue saying? Forget the name. Think it's in beta.

 

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49 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

Historically that far out, by n large, never comes to fruition. Models just not that good ...yet. What's that new model by Big Blue saying? Forget the name. Think it's in beta.

 

The Euro nailed the snow jackpot 8 days out on the 1/4 storm. Just sayin’ ;) 

That Euro had a 2.4” liquid bullseye just off the beach here as snow!! 

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In all seriousness it’s way too early to say what’ll happen on 2/2. I kinda hope this gets suppressed for a while on the models so the inevitably stronger close in SE ridge can bring it back. NYC in the bullseye 4-5 days out will likely mean a snow event for I-84. 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

In all seriousness it’s way too early to say what’ll happen on 2/2. I kinda hope this gets suppressed for a while on the models so the inevitably stronger close in SE ridge can bring it back. NYC in the bullseye 4-5 days out will likely mean a snow event for I-84. 

Sounds good to me lol..

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