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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2018


andyhb
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Number of Tornadoes in 2018  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of Tornadoes

    • Less than 900
    • 900-1000
      0
    • 1000-1100
    • 1100-1200
    • 1200-1300
    • 1300-1400
    • 1400-1500
    • Greater than 1500


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Went with a persistence forecast from the year before, going with 1400-1450 total, though this is likely a high-end forecast. 

First high risk day on March 27 in Dixie Alley. 

With respect to the discussion about the Plains chase season; Amarillo has not had precip in 70+ days, Dodge City has not measured precip since early October, and Wichita is headed for it's second driest December on record (.03"). We are going to need some moisture-loaded systems to start coming around out here in order to have an appreciable season. To me, the coming severe weather season feels like it will be an I-35 and east year, though there may be one or two opportunities to get a solid event west of there.

My main concern is for another significant fire season. 

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Tornadoes: 1265

First High Risk: March 26th Dixie Alley

Last year I thought the SPC wasn't going to pull the trigger and it turned out they were trigger happy all Spring. Based on lots of what has already been mentioned on here, this year looks promising for the volume of tornadoes but in terms of chase terrain...eh. I think there will be a couple higher end events but for good chaseability like in the High Plains, it will be quite limited. I-35 corridor and points east are my guess for most plains activity and I think the EF-5 drought ends this year.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Reluctantly went 1,100-1,200 which is a little light in a La Nina year. Dixie should get going early, but oh that damn cold signal into March. April could still go in Dixie and Hoosier Alleys. I have major concerns with the drought in the southern Plains. Please, not more of this Ozarks crap! Supposed to be there early, but I have nightmares of these charts in May.

Possible quick decay of La Nina adds to my pessimism. Alas nothing lasts forever. Anyone starting stocks the last 15 years is frustrated as can be. Folks who retired off the 80-90s know better times. Everything comes back around. On the other hand what if we get El Nino by next fall? First high risk November 15, 2018 Dixie.

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  • 2 months later...

It would appear that all but four of our predicted first high risks are now in the rear view mirror and out of the running with three left standing in May and one in Nov (well the latest of the passed dates is April 9 so that one remains in contention until about the 20th when May 1st takes over). So if today's risk happens to go high, April 9th takes it. No huge contenders on the current model output. 

These were the forecasts I noted as being April 7 or later:

 

rolltide_130 (Apr 7)

freshgeek (Apr 9)

cstrunk (May 1)

bjc0303 (May 2)

GSwizzle83 (May 4)

NRGJeff (Nov 18)

Would now say around May 10th perhaps. Recent maps remind me of spring 1947 (the Woodward OK tornado which was in early May IIRC). 

Pretty good call by freshgeek (Apr 9) who also said MS-AL, now under tor watch (enhanced). 

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  • 7 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/29/2018 at 8:51 PM, ILwxchr said:

Yeah this year sucks. My best day was in Iowa. If that tells you anything. I actually think this weekend's blizzard was my favorite "chase" ha ha.

Correction....my best chase was in Illinois with 8 tornadoes. Iowa for a second on #2 on 7/19. And I dunno if this year sucks anymore from a chasing standpoint for me, but statistics wise yes lol.

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Looking like we're on track for the first year without an F/EF4+ rated tornado since at least 1880, extending the database back through Grazulis' archives.

Speaking of that, I am getting my hands on both volumes of the new Significant Tornadoes out next year come hell or high water.

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On 12/8/2018 at 10:17 PM, andyhb said:

Looking like we're on track for the first year without an F/EF4+ rated tornado since at least 1880, extending the database back through Grazulis' archives.

Speaking of that, I am getting my hands on both volumes of the new Significant Tornadoes out next year come hell or high water.

I will be as well... as long as its not something ridiculous in cost

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KJAX reported an EF3 on December 2nd that damaged the Naval Submarine Base at King's Bay in GA... strongest TOR in recent memory in JAX CWA... in addition, a docked Coast Guard vessel confirmed a wind gust of 144 mph -- https://www.weather.gov/jax/ef-3

Tornado was reportedly between 1/3 and 1/2 mile wide and on ground for around 10 minutes... 

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On 12/8/2018 at 9:17 PM, andyhb said:

Looking like we're on track for the first year without an F/EF4+ rated tornado since at least 1880, extending the database back through Grazulis' archives.

Speaking of that, I am getting my hands on both volumes of the new Significant Tornadoes out next year come hell or high water.

Not supposed to come out until 2021 I think.

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On 12/11/2018 at 10:00 AM, yoda said:

KJAX reported an EF3 on December 2nd that damaged the Naval Submarine Base at King's Bay in GA... strongest TOR in recent memory in JAX CWA... in addition, a docked Coast Guard vessel confirmed a wind gust of 144 mph -- https://www.weather.gov/jax/ef-3

Tornado was reportedly between 1/3 and 1/2 mile wide and on ground for around 10 minutes... 

Hmm, that has to be one of the more direct in situ measurements ever gathered of a tornado.

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A damaging tornado touched down for about two minutes (1:45 pm PST) at Port Orchard, WA today. Videos on news reports show a low-based tornado creating debris over a residential area, and later aerial video shows a number of large homes severely damaged including roofs torn off. Also some large evergreen trees on the ground. The video looks to me like an EF-2 and the damage is consistent with at least that strong. 

Port Orchard is on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula roughly west of Seattle WA. 

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